Looking to the future: what hybrid should toyota build next?

The NX is so hot, I just may have to buy one!

 

Toyota should build a hybrid Avensis here in Europe. The hybrid Camry base is ready!
Despite the excelent Valvematic engines, there is no "economic" offer, except for the vibrating diesels D4D, which are a reliability luck shot (or not).

Toyota, take a look at the sales up at Lexus Europe, the same period they got rid of diesels!

 

Toyota needs to improve the hybrids they already have before bringing out new models. Most want more value for their money, not a $23k + car whose interior door and dash panels are downscale from an $18k Corolla.

Obviously most customers are not insisting on 42+ MPG combined. If the car gets mid 30's to 40 on highway, they're sold. I'll bet most customers believe they spend most of their time on the highway.

Salespeople quote highway MPGs and many are not pushing to sell hybrids.

 

when you say most customers, are you talking about the entire car buying public?

 

For July 2014, the take rate for Hybrids + PHEV + BEV + CNG + Diesels was only 4.84% of all vehicles sold.

So, by most I mean the 95.16% of new car buyers who bought no type of alternative fuel vehicle last month or really, any other month.

July 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com

 

that's what i thought you meant, but i wonder if toyota is interested in trying to increase the alternative fuel market by making hybrids more attractive. i suspect they aren't, but i can only judge by their actions over the last 15 years.

 

(this is personal opinion only, I have no 'inside' information)

The Prius 'brand' will be cutting edge hybrids trying to meet the ultimate emissions standards while trying to innovate reduced petroleum use. Sometimes this comes at a ergonomic and always at a financial cost. They are often technology heavy.

Lexus uses Hybrids to differentiate the top of the line version of their luxury cars.

Toyota branded hybrids are family cars with hybrid systems proven in Prius. (and Lexus)

I have no idea how Scion will market hybrids, there is an opportunity to have 'sport' hybrids, but no sign Toyota is wise enough to market them. Many other firms have failed.

 

Need a 3-row hybrid more affordable than the Highlander Hybrid Limited 8-passenger that will cost you nearly $50K. Not necessarily a full-size minivan, perhaps something like a Mazda5 6-passenger or the original short wheelbase Sienna 7-passenger in size. Family haulers are the perfect vehicles for a hybrid powertrain. Few in the demographic need towing or offroad capability or sporty performance. Most of the driving is in the zone where hybrids excel around the suburbs or city. I think the 200HP Camry hybrid system in a 2WD large wagon/hatchback or short wheelbase minivan would be perfect.

The only thing out there right now is the Pathfinder mild hybrid at around $35K.

 

The thing that pisses me off is that Toyota has been selling a hybrid mini van in Japan for the last 10 years and will NOT be bringing it to the US. I would have loved one of these.

 

Don’t expect that hybrid minivan any time soon | Grist
Toyota's Fuel-Sipping Estima And Alphard Hybrid Minivans – Off Limits For US - HybridCars.com

 

Those hybrid minivans would be small for an American minivan. They are bigger than the Mazda5, but the Estima is a foot shorter and a half foot narrower than the Sienna. The Sienna is already 700 to 800 pounds heavier than the Avalon hybrid. Most people would likely be unhappy with the performance of the 2.5L HSD in it. Using the 3.5L HSD from the HiHy would result in MPG figures around that of the HiHy, plus likely the same cost.

Wanted to add that Chrysler, or FCA, is coming out with a mild hybrid minivan.

 

According to the articles, they likely won't release in the US for a variety of reasons:

Cost. They said those vehicles in the US would cost around $50k, way too expensive for most folks that would want one. You might as well just get top-trim, gas guzzling Sienna for at least $10k less.

Probably won't meet EPA regulations without massive overhauling which would add to weight/cost issue.

Power. A lot of Americans already feel the prius is underpowered, so you can imagine the disdain they'd have for a hybrid van that is slow to accelerate, and doesn't really get that much better mpg than the Sienna or even a truck. They could beef up the engine, but again that would add cost, and probably require more gas, which then defeats the purpose of it being a hybrid. I'm sure they will come up with a solution, but probably not for at least 5-15 years unless some massive breakthroughs in engineering come out within that time.

Shrinking market. One of them says that only 500k minivans were sold recently, compared to about nearly double that a few years back. People in the US seem to be buying CUV's or SUV's more than minivans right now, as they offer semi-decent power and a semi-reasonable storage. Sure, not enough for a full family loaded with camping gear, but enough for picking kids up at school.

Unfortunately the perception of many Americans, real or not, is that they want power (low 0-60 acceleration times, and they complain about anything more than 7-8 seconds as "too slow"), great mileage, but at a low price. There's that old adage of "mpg, power, price, pick two." or some variation of it.

 

+1

I'd also like to see hybrid van to replace this current Peugeot "Hiace". Maybe it's hard to make cost efficient hybrid system with high towing mass though.

 

I think the next step is the RAV4 hybrid since there's the nx.

A minivan would also makes a lot of sense since families are aware of the eco friendly side of hybrids.

I also thinks (and hope) a new generation of hybrid powertrains is coming soon and will be followed by more new models.
The actual synergy drive (the planetary drive) is so simple in design I doubt it can really be improved by much in term of efficiency, reliability and production cost. However, improvements can be done on battery packs, regenerative braking and, mostly, on these Atkinson cycle engines.
The Atkinson is the main reason why we get better highway mileage than a regular otto engine as the electric motors/battery are mostly helping in the city but do little on the highway; the electrical power beeing mainly produced by the ICE anyway. I see so much room for improvement in this design cause it plays directly on the thermal efficiency that I think diesels will soon be obsolete in comparison even without the help of electricity.

 

Diesels will be obsolete?!

 

Regarding emission control, it will be increasingly difficult to match future regulations.

 

Toyota have already SUV (Rav4 EV only and Highlander) and cars (Prius family, Avalon and Camry). I would like to see a Tacoma Hybrid instead of a Tundra (Tacoma has more sale than Tundra). Pickups should be the next move from Toyota. Then the Sienna

 

I see no reason why Toyota couldn't drop the Camry's hybrid powertrain into the Sienna and get a 35% mpg improvement or better. That system has total output of 200 HP with a 2.5L engine. Until very recently, Toyota's base model Sienna came with a 2.7L 187 HP engine.

The main issue is where to hide the battery but I'm sure they can find a place for it if they try.

 

Think about where the battery is for the 7-seat Prius.

The main issue is lack of minivan market certainty. Look at how much of it has already been abandoned.

Add to that uncertainty related to the hybrid market, it makes good business sense waiting until after the Gen-4 Prius is rolled out before taking next steps.

 

Looking at mpg numbers of vehicles similar to would be Sienna hybrid; Compare Side-by-Side