It's official Toyota is full speed fuel cells for compliance after 2014

Absolutely, the question is do we need to go to zero. Today if we could reduce oil for transportation by 50% many of the oil problems would be greatly reduced. I read a study that said about 40% of people have needs that could be satisfied by plug ins, which leaves 60% because of vehicle capabilities, cost, or lack of a plug not being able to use them. I would prefer to focus on the 40% when we talk about fcv because really fcv capabilities are not greater than plug-in, their cost is not lower, and if you don't have access to a plug, the odds are you don't have a good spot to park a $50K+ vehicle.

Appartments and work places can add plugs. Vehicles like the tesla X and outlander phev will expand the capabilities. Fuel cells then become this narrow niche where people don't want to use any gas as in a phev, but live somewhere where there are hydrogen stations, and have the extra money to buy say a toyota fcv versus a much less expensive volt or prius phv. In the future costs for fcv and cost for hydrogen may drop, but until then they only can get a tiny slice of the pie in the US.

I think these first fuel cells with go to fleets who want fuel cells politically, or mainly to rich individuals as a 3rd or 99th car that is different. The bieb and gore have fisker karmas, why not add that green fcv to the fleet.

 

I agreed with your point that plug-ins often are not practicle because you don't have a plug. You could ask your landlord, or change appartments, which would probably easier than spening $50K+ on a fcv and feeling good about parking it in a public space, and not being able to drive it far versus a phev, but yes there are problems with plug ins.

Yeah, and carter and byrd thought it would run out in the 1990's and passed a law forcing us to build coal power plants for base load. I don''t really buy these iffs and buts. There is plenty of natural gas in the ground for the near future. Plenty of renewable methane from biomass and biogas, along with wind and solar for the medium and long term.

Zero is what forces you to say we need fuel cells because phev use too much oil (we could use methane to make methanol and run the ice on that if it wasn't for politics).

electric has some power plant emissions, phev have some tail pipe emissions. If we don't force things to be zero, plug-ins work for a large minority of the population, especially as battery prices fall. zero tail pipe is what forces the idea of fuel cells.

 

Oh don't get me wrong. I have no problem with doe supporting fuel cell R&D. If 10,000 psi fuel cell vehicles started selling magically in large numbers in indiana, hey more power to them, but .... most analysts don't think this is likely to ever happen.

Now other than R&D the fuel cell lobby wants commercialization money. One of the reasons given, is hey these fuel cells are so much cleaner than plug-ins they deserve more money. But when you analyze where they are likely to sell, the oposite is true. Its misleading. I have no problem with more ghg coming from fcv than bevs, but I do have a problem swallowing that because they produce less where no one expects them to sell, that they need more taxpayer money. I don't think truth telling about lobbiest is short sited. For this generation of fcv in the US, they will put out more ghg/mi, along with fueling infrastructure putting more NOx/mile into polluted LA, than plug-in cars. Of course plug-ins will provide california with more ghg than fcv for the next decade, simply because there will be so many more of them.

Oh. Sure. I just don't belive those low natural gas fears, in the past they were used to force us to build more coal than was good for the country. Eventually natural gas will get rarer, which means it will get more expensive. I hope that we build renewables fast enough to replace natural gas on the grid before it gets very expensive. If natural gas gets expensive in the next 20 years though, it will slow the replacement of coal, and coal does not play well with renewables.

If natural gas gets expensive though, Electricity will still be less than gasoline, as oil is much more scarce than natural gas. FCV would then switch to electricity, hopefully with renewables. But when fcv run on renewables they use 3 to 4 times more electricity than a plug-in for similar vehicles.

 

The hyundai tucson fuel cell is the only new vehicle currently leasing. There are older honda clarities and fcells on the road that are leased, but no new ones available. GM and Toyota also have fuel cell vehicles in the wild but these are fleets not even consumer leases.

I assume that for liability reasons in california the hundreds of fcv on the road in the US will either be put in fleets or crushed, other than the new hyundais. The Toyota fcv will be available for purchase at the end of this year in japan for $96,500 (converted from yen). It will probably be sold or leased in california sometime next year, as will a redesigned 5 seat honda clarity. I expect these will cost less in california than japan to compete with the $499/mo including fuel and maintenance hyundai fuel cell lease.

We can assume that the target for all this national pro Fuel cell PR coming out of the fuel cell lobby and hyundai and toyota is really targeted towards government, to get more government money. Otherwise the BEV bashing by Toyota and Lexus makes no sense at all.

We do not know the longevity of the 10,000 psi hydrogen tanks, as these car manufacturers only have to state that when they are sold, and none are being sold yet. That is the only part that has capacity other than the batteries that these fcv require to have adequate on demand power.

The fuel cell stacks can be thought of more as an ice, where the more power they can deliver the less they will be stressed, and the power delivered from the stack versus the battery is determined by the ECU. They have longevity figures from fuel cell busses, but it is less than a bus ice. I don't know how many thousands of miles a fuel cell stack will last before it needs to be replaced. We should expect the inefficiencies of the fcv to be similar to bevs in hot weather, in cold weather they are much less efficient bevs, so it is possible to use some of the waste heat from the stack for heating. We don't know if honda or toyota will be doing this. Unlike a plug-in, you can not preheat the vehicle from the grid on cold days.

You and I won't even have the oportunity to make the decission as for at least 2 more generations I doubt these consumer fcv will be available outside of small geographical areas. It is doubtfull that even initial adopters in the small areas they will be sold will want a fcv over a plug-in. Hyundai stated sales goal is 600 fcv leased or sold in north america in the next 18 months, which works out to only 33/month. Toyota's production is going to start at only 50 vehicles/month to serve the entire world market.