Next voltec, what do you think of the new rumors

He was saying a U.S. subsidy , not Japanese.

DBCassidy

 

When people evade goals, you know there's a problem. When they take a goal and change it to an expectation, you can expect failure. I was amazed to see that with Two-Mode. Seeing the same thing play out again with Volt was shocking. Recognizing the pattern emerge for a third time is leaving beside myself. Don't people pay attention? Are they really that naïve? Or is it that some just like to debate? And once speculation is disproved, bringing it up again doesn't accomplish anything. Ugh.

Whatever the case, we can see that second generation Volt targets set by the former CEO are now being spun to mean a promise. Certain shortcomings of the design are being flat out denied too. It's barely even worth documenting anymore, especially since there isn't any accountability. We all know sales are the ultimate measure of success anyway. There's a big difference between a trophy and a purchase... which a few still don't understand.

The need for sustainable profit will trump efforts to divert attention. No amount of blame or excuses will overcome that essential requirement miss. Consequences of short-term efforts (like cheap leases, large price cuts, and clever markets) will make themselves apparent too. There's simply no way to avoid the reality of not having delivered what was actually needed.

This thread turned out to be a good example of how heated & unproductive things get. Many arguments were pointless. Those same mistakes are being made again, but it doesn't matter. It always comes down to the same thing in the end... sales.

 

For the plug in segment, Volt sales seem pretty damn good. More would be nice, and I'm sure GM will work more towards that end than against it. Tesla's success is enough for them to push for it. The ELR would likely have been left at concept level if not for Tesla.

More plain old hybrid sales would be nice. After being on the market for nearly 17 years, hybrids are still around only 3% of the annual sales. Changes in the consumer are probably more important at this point. People still don't put the priority on fuel economy as members here do.

 

How is that constructive?

Prius wasn't even available on dealer's lots until May 2002. And back then, gas was still around $1 per gallon and most people didn't even know there were hybrids. Sadly, among those who did, many assumed they had to be plugged in. It wasn't until late 2003 that misconceptions finally got proper attention. Then the GM anti-hybrid campaign was launched. From that, we knew it would take an entire life-cycle would be required to achieve widescale acceptance. And that was before consumers lost faith in the automotive industry.

In other words, we are only arriving at the doorstep of serious competition with traditional vehicles now... at the dawn of industry recovery and plug-in understanding.

That's why some of us saw the shortcomings of Volt right away. So much was being promised from an engineering perspective, it would have been a miracle to achieve all that. To also have strong market acceptance immediately upon initial rollout was absurd... which is why enthusists quickly changed their stance from "leap frog" to "early adopter". Then when sales struggled to attract buyers beyond enthusiasts, things got ugly.

Now, we ask what comes next. Sadly, the message is far from clear. It's the same chaos reappearing.

That's why having a strong hybrid to actually compete is so important. Plug-In vehicles will not be able to achieve traditional replacement alone.

 

It is constructive in putting the Volt's sales numbers in perspective. Plug in cars are still a young market. Demanding that they run before they can walk is silly. Even from those predicting huge sales before the Volt's release. Like hybrids, plug ins won't reach wider acceptance until the second generation.

The Volt did not reach its, possibly hyped, engineering goals. The model is closer to redesign than introduction at this point. nothing constructive will come of continually pointing out how these goals weren't met. Do you want a "we were right, they were wrong"?

As to the next generation, to only thing out of GM on it is a price reduction. Part of that reduction may or may not include the price cut that had already taken place. Everything else is rumor and speculation from outside sources at this point. Which are fun to discuss, otherwise humans wouldn't have a word for gossip.

Where did the ugliness come from?

So GM doesn't have a non-plug hybrid. How does this pertain to future directions of the Voltec system?

I'm sure GM has the knowledge to build one, but what is there to gain for them to have one out now? The expansion of hybrid offerings did grow hybrid market share. Some of the new models' sales came at the expense of the older ones though. While people want improved fuel economy, many don't want to pay extra for it.

The Malibu dropped the mild hybrid system because direct injection, auto stop, and other improvements netted the same gains without the expense. ICE technology isn't sitting still, and much of the next generation Prius' gains will be in the engine. Keeping eAssist may have had further improvements, but the car has to compete with competitors on price point.

GM's highest selling model is still a pick up truck. While many that buy them don't need them for work, there are some people that still do. For them a hybrid version still needs to perform the job. All the current hybrid systems out there aren't up to the task without compromises in hauling and towing abilities. That includes two-mode. Toyota doesn't even have a hybrid system for the Tundra yet. The rumor now is that they will offering a diesel in it.

Then there are outside forces that may keep a hybrid coming from GM. Toyota has a near monopoly of NiMH batteries. That's one of the reasons the others have gone with lithium. Between the non plug ins and plug ins that have come out using lithium, there could be supply constraints that need to unravel. The cost is dropping, but a plug in, despite having more cells, can cover the battery cost under 'it's a new technology' perview. A plain old hybrid would end up with tighter margins in order to compete in an established market.

 

Sept 2011 ?

How does that apply to today's auto market, which has changed quite a bit since then. For that matter, the economy is very different from then too.

Having already provided links & references many times already, it's clear there is no interest in participating there. The big GM forum and daily blog for Volt have been around for years, playing a major role in feeding the hype. Continuing to be an unknown source for information about market response & perception contributes to posting problems here. What do you suggest?

 

Then there are outside forces that may keep a hybrid coming from GM. Toyota has a near monopoly of NiMH batteries. That's one of the reasons the others have gone with lithium

Volt uses lithium, so the statement of NiMH batteries is moot.

DBCassidy

 

I am not following how Toyota has control over NiMh. Toyota licensed the patent from US company. Nobody is stopping them from manufacturing it.

In fact, GM used American produced NiMh in their 2 mode hybrids.

 

Just because we can see through the hype, that is no reason to turn a blind eye. It will continue to be a major source of misinformation unless someone speaks up. And yes, they resented having to face real-world data and debunking of unsupported claims on a regular basis.

Many, many people were sucked into their rhetoric. Mass disenchantment resulted. That hurt both consumers and the market itself. Why allow it to repeat?

 

Primearth EV, a joint Toyota and Panasonic company, supplies not only Toyota with NiMH, but also Honda and GM.
Primearth EV Energy Co - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Sanyo was the major competitor to Panasonic in battery production, buy was bought out by the latter. This gave Panasonic 80% market share of NiMH batteries.

Toyota Tsusho is a part of the Toyota group and is the 6th largest trading company in the world. Nickel is one of the diverse commodities it deals in.
Toyota Tsusho - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In order to reduce its own costs, Toyota has secured, through the Toyota Group and partnerships, favorable access to nickel and batteries. There is less than a dozen nickel mines in the world, and it is a metal with multiple uses. With limited supply, another company can't just decide to start making their own batteries without major cost. With a larger potential supply of raw materials, it is better to invest in lithium batteries.

With lithium battery supply still limited, and most Panasonic's and Primearth's NiMH batteries going to Toyota, GM building both the Volt and another hybrid car was not likely. Old GM said they were going to build the Volt, so there was some pride in making that so, but everything learned in producing it could apply to a hybrid down the road. Then GM had limited cash resources. While there was a government incentive on plug ins, there wasn't one for hybrids anymore.

We won't know why GM doesn't offer a hybrid car at this time. We can speculate on the internal and external reasons for it though. State of the global battery supply is one of the external ones. Aisin is part of the Toyota Group, and Ford complained about part shortages when they were using them for hybrid transaxles. It might be a reasonable assumption GM's part to not count on supplies from that sector.

 

Ok, so it is the Nickel supply, not NiMh specifically.

 

Toyota is investing in a Primearth EV factory to increase NiMH output for domestic hybrids, so there are supply constraints in battery production also.
Toyota to boost domestic nickel-metal hydride battery output - SupplierBusiness

Panasonic, Sanyo, and LG Chem have all plead guilty and paid fines on price fixing charges recently. So the possibility of 'unnatural' constraints can't be eliminated.
FBI — Panasonic and Its Subsidiary SANYO Agree to Plead Guilty in Separate Price Fixing Conspiracies Involving Automotive Parts and Battery Cells

 

What's stopping competitor like Ovonics from ramping up NiMh battery? Is it the lack of customer, Nickel supply, or something else.

 

Read the link. This has nothing to do with automotive NiMH battery.

 

I know, but if happened now, it could have happened before. It is merely an example what outside forces could be affecting GM's decisions on products to offer.

Now, lack of customer. The only company using NiMH for cars in any large quantity is Toyota, and they already own or partly own the factories making their batteries.

Even if Ovonics wanted to(remember they weren't keen of leasing rights out for large size automotive packs), ramping up production is easier said than done. Panasonic and Sanyo held 80% of the global market share for NiMH batteries. Panasonic's buy out Sanyo was finalized at the end of 2009. It had been announced a year before.

Lithium was already decided on for the Volt, Leaf, and Tesla cars at that time. The lithium itself was cheaper than nickel. Why continue with NiMH unless you already have a large investment in it? Even if you did, it would still take time to get production up. Until that time, you would have to buy from Panasonic, and likely at a higher price than it costs Toyota for its cells.

 

How Much Better Does Gen-2 Volt Need to Be?

 

So back on topic, I'm predicting five seater and battery capacity options.