35% (or 25%) of hybrid owners don't buy 2nd hybrid

Unfortunately if I knew my 2010 Prius would depreciate like it has I probably would have never bought it. My 2007 Toyota Tacoma I traded in for my Prius has not lost its value at all but gained in value. Now how does that make sense when gas is still over $3.00 a gallon?

 

Fore, be careful when looking at a trade-in deal. Dealers do all sorts of games with list prices, trade-in amounts, rebates, etc that can hide the true value of the trade and the price the new car cost.

 

Unless you are actually selling it today, the current value makes no difference. Rates vary over time.

 

Can't argue with that!

 

If a Fiesta or Insight-I is big enough for your needs, then why are you comparing them to the much larger Prius Liftback instead of the only somewhat larger Prius 'c'?

For my use, I won't consider anything smaller than a Matrix. If my cost comparison included a Fiesta, it would also need a line item for a larger rental car for the trips where the Fiesta is too small. That would quickly gobble up any savings.

And City miles would also have to be included. Unlike you, my driving is not exclusively highway.

 

Except for the PIP, all of the Prius's sold are gasoline only.
What you mean is a gas-electric hybrid vs gasoline only.

It is also ridiculous to say that teh G1 didn't sell well. It was a brand new technology, a bit odd (gear shift) and not offered with lots of features. The Gen 1 was a trial balloon and apparently it sold well enough that they created the Gen II. Sure, when you compare to today the sales numbers are low. By this same measure the IBM PC (1981) didn't sell well and neither did the iPhone 1.

Mike

 

Since G1 was limited to a strict quota, there is no easy to determine actual demand.

The long wait list for delivery hinted at supply being too low and the string early sales of G2 without any tax-credit help to confirm that.

Of course, comparisons to back then serve no purpose. Too many factors differ.

 

Yep. And there were compromises on the G1 to get it manuactured fast. Then Gen II benefited from a longer development cycle and not needing to have a model without a traction battery

heh heh. The first generation prius sold much better than toyota expectted. I wouldn't call it a trial balloon, but rather a production proof of concept. It was also expensive to manufacture. The gen II not only cost toyota less to make, but provided a better value to the customers (more efficient, more power, more room, fewer compromises) as well as a unique look for those that wanted to show their fuel efficiency to the world (for some a positive, for others a negative).

 

Fore we already talked about this, but Prius has among the lowest depreciation rates (if not the lowest) of all cars on the market, which is why Consumer Reports just rated Prius the No. 1 Car Value. Apparently Tacoma trucks retain value even better than cars, but we should not leave the erroneous impression Prius has a high depreciation rate...

 

I don't know about this. I bought my 2010 in October 2009. It looks like it has depreciated about 50% from what I paid. Thought about a mazda 3, which has depreciated about 40% from what I would have paid. Part of the difference is back then you had to pay near sticker for a prius, but got big discounts on a mazda 3. Given the lower cost of the 3 depreciation in dollar terms is much lower. At the time I bought toyota was covering up facts about the uninteded acceleration case and braking software. In 2010 when things came to light, toyota was discounting cars, if you got one then, you got good resale value.

 

...my 2006 is still like $8800 (according to VA car tax blue book value) I paid like $23.5k about 7 years ago. One equation is Value = Price x (1-.01 x Depreciation Rate)^Years ...so I gotta use as low as 15% depreciation to hit that. Consumer Reports always says deprec is low on Prius, but I don't know what math they are doing.

 

Ok, let me just stop you right there.
First of all:
Compare Side-by-Side
You can clearly see the Prius has more passenger and cargo room than either Focus or Fiesta.
If that is not a priority for you, then why use regular Prius in your comparison (unless you are deliberately trying to make it look bad)? Why not use Prius C? It is comparable in room to the Focus, and roomier than Fiesta. And you would have to load the Fiesta comparably to the standard features on the C, so forget about $14k. Oh, and the C starts at $19,000, which throws off your numbers.

Second of all (as others have mentioned):
Why are you using only highway mpg? Do you do your entire driving on the highway? If so, you might want to consider Golf TDI:
Compare Side-by-Side
Which is comparable in room to the Fords (and more likely to hit EPA mpg, IMHO). Plus more robust performance. Downside is $$ diesel will raise your cost per mile. Which brings to my last point:

Third of all (and MOST importantly)
Your calculations are flawed because you are assuming $3.50 gas over a 200,000-mile ownership interval!?
Hello!?
That's at least 7 years of driving for someone who is a heavy driver....and if you put that many miles or more/year (and do mostly highway) then (I'm assuming) the TDI will last longer than the Fords.
Anyhow, let's assume 7 years. Actually, let's go for 200,000 miles in "just" 5 years. Here is what has happened to gas prices in the past 5:
Historical Gas Price Charts - GasBuddy.com
As you can see, it has doubled.
Thus, we can assume (especially due to Peak Oil) that gasoline will again double in the next 5-7 years. That puts it at about $7/gallon. The midway point from $3.5 to $7 is $5.25, and that is the price you should be using.
Making these adjustments makes the vehicles about even, but that is assuming you ONLY care about the personal co$t to YOU, and you have ZERO value attached to reduced air pollution, reduced CO2, reduced strategic vulnerability to foreign oil, and reduced trade deficits.

 

The gen II had lower depreciation , but I doubt anyone would pay you $8800 for a 2006 prius around here, perhaps resale prices of used cars in virginia are much higher than here, or maybe that is the price a dealer would sell it to you. It was one reason low tco, that I bought it. but depreciation on the 2010 my has been higher than the non-hybrids because of heavy discounting after we bought ours. You pays your money and you take your chances. I was using kelly blue book with my zip for both cars. I don't know about today. Perhaps if you get a good discount on a new one, you will have great resale, but those of us that bought the pre scandal gen IIIs, have had simply normal depreciation. Things like the mazda 3 and honda fit did better, ofcourse many cars did worse.

 

I will be happy to ship you a bunch of 10 year old texas prii for $10K a piece. Who is able to sell at that price?

 

Well, yes the Focus is larger than the Fiesta (but not the regular Prius, though comparable to the C).
Anyhow, my point still holds. If you want to make the Prius look bad, how about this:
Compare Side-by-Side

Some fun with numbers:
Chevy Volt = $34,185 - $7,500 Fed EV tax credit = $26,685
- assume 1 charge per day, good for 40 EV miles
- assume charge costs $.40 (overnight rate), so $.01/mile in EV mode
- assume 35 mpg in CS mode using $4/gallon premium (8.75 cents/mile)
- assume 200,000 miles driven in 7 years, or 28,571 per year.

Out of 28,571 miles/year, 14,600 will be in EV mode, or $146
remaining 14,000 in CS mode, or $1225
Total fuel cost per year is $1371
x 7 years = $9597 (let's say $10k)

So, Volt is $10,000 fuel + $27,000 cost = $37,000
Lower than the Prius and very close to your Focus.....but in a faster, quieter car with way more features

And, again, this is assuming you have assigned a value of $0 to the environment, energy security, and trade deficits

 

I calculated the difference between the Focus and the Volt over 7 years is $2500 ($37,000 for the Volt and $34,500 for the Focus).

$2500 over 7 years works out to $357/year or $29.76/month

Put another way, it appears you are unwilling to spend $1/day extra to:

- Help reduce CO2/global warming
- Help reduce localized air pollution that affects health
- Help keep money in the local economy (substitute local electricity for oil from far-away)
- Help reduce strategic vulnerability to foreign oil/ OPEC
- Help keep prices stable (weather disruptions, geopolitical factors, global demand not relevant to electricity)
- Help reduce nation's trade deficit (which will drive long-term inflation just as much as the Fed you mentioned)

 

Bait and switch. You described your needs, then incorrectly make a cost comparison for me. And you threw in more sleight of hand by mixing the cheaper manual transmission with the higher efficiency mpg automatic option.

Here is the corrected cost comparison for me:
Prius costs $25,000 + $14,000 gas == $39,000
[Focus HB MT] costs $20,000 + $23,300 gas == $43,300 (the Prius is cheaper)
[Focus HB AT] costs $21,000 + $22,600 gas == $43,600 (the Prius is cheaper)

And this doesn't even count equipment differences and Consumer Reports value, reliability, and owner satisfaction ratings.