Looking to the future: what hybrid should toyota build next?

I remember a joke from comedian years ago,"I have a diesel car. It gets 40 mpg, 20 when searching for a station that sells diesel."

I don't know if Wawa reaches up in NY where your are, but around here their stations carry diesel. There is also plenty of them. I pass three on my commute.

My friend used to have a diesel Rabbit back in the day, and I used to have a heating oil system. In comparison to old diesel and heating oil, ULSD doesn't stink.

The cost per mile was based of window sticker numbers. Diesels beat them, while a gas car might meet them in real world. Anyone researching a diesel will come across that. They might even find the EPA paper where they admit that the new fuel economy label under reports diesels by 13%. But this is YMMV. A person the drives a majority of city miles will do better with a hybrid.

The price of diesel cars is because of demand. For years, the only non-luxury diesel a person could buy was a VW. Which meant VW could load it with options, charge more, and still sell them. Likewise, GM is able to load the new Cruze up. Which means a closer look is needed to compare trims. Once you add the automatic transmission and power driver's seat, the ECO is $3600 less, but can't get leather.

With more manufacturers getting into the diesel market, base trim models should become available. It took the second generation to get that on the Camry and Fusion hybrids.

 

It would be a fool's errand to argue that a diesel would do better than hybrid in the city. On the highway, the hybrid's advantages drop off, and a diesel can return stellar numbers without effort. Choice is good since we don't fit some typical commute. Of course, we have no choice here in regards to mini-vans, which started this side topic.

There is study comparing the ownership costs between gasoline and diesel models. Overall, diesels came out ahead, but study was limited to what was available in the US in the 3 and 5 year time frame. So, it just covers VWs, Mercedes, and heavy duty pickups. The time frame also means the data is only useful to new or barely used car shoppers.
http://www.dieselforum.org/files/dmfile/20130311_CD_UMTRITCOFinalReport_dd2017.pdf
Perhaps there will be a follow up once the Jetta hybrid has been around long enough.

People comparing just highway numbers aren't doing enough research for a car purchase. Toyota had advertisement stressing the city number of the Prius c and the Camry hybrid, so I don't think the hybrids came off dis advantaged for those people.

For people that care, the Prius and the c can beat the EPA. That's true of nearly any car though. When it comes to a typical driver(at least, those willing to track fuel economy), the Prii are around their EPA combined while diesels surpass it.
Compare Side-by-Side
User reported data there has the c at 1.2mpg above combined, Prius 2.8 below, Jetta 2.8 above, and Passat 8.2 above. Numbers on Fuelly show the same trend, and it is what EPA discovered back in 2008 when they were working on changing the testing. Diesels would out perform the new sticker numbers by 18% in the real world. Where's the outrage above diesels being hampered by unrealistic mpg numbers?

I started a thread about it not too long ago. It was in the correct place, the diesel forum, so few people saw it.
Diesel mpg underrated on the window sticker | PriusChat

 

Dude GM makes or has made a few V8 Hybrids, namely the Sierra and Silverado pickups and the Tahoe SUV. I am not going to say that they are good hybrids but they made them.

 

Their highway numbers weren't much better, which makes sense considering their aerodynamics. The city numbers were as good as the highway though. You had a Tahoe getting 20mpg around town, which is a whole lot better than the 15 or less the non-hybrid got. Cost is what killed them.

 

Yeah I was looking yesterday and it seems that the Tahoe hybrid lives on as it's cousin the Cadillac Escalade hybrid.

 

And people didn't see that 5 mpg increase as much when in fact that is huge on those low of numbers. Would save someone a lot of money if they mainly use their truck/SUV around town.

 

It didn't help that truck buyers tended to fall into the anti-hybrid camp.

 

I'd love to see a 2-seat, RWD, drop-top!

Who says hybrids can't be sporty and fun to drive?
The last time I checked, nobody was wrinkling their noses at the Tesla Roadster and saying "Eeeww!"

OK....so take the HSD drive-train, scale it up a little bit to adult proportions, give it a Pip sized battery, spend a little bit more in suspension components, and you'd sell them by the butt-ton....even at Pip prices!

 

A big thing against a hybrid minivan is weight.

Minivans, now that's an oxymoron if there ever was one, are very heavy compared to sedans and even some trucks (empty beds). Now add hybrid components, especially a heavy battery pack. Toyota won't give the Prius a tow rating on their HSD, and I believe the HyCam has a pretty low tow rating. An HSD in a heavy un-minivan would be essentially "towing" that extra weight around permanently, plus potentially more passengers and their stuff, all the time.

 

True, but no reason a modified HiHy chassis/drivetrain couldn't do the job.

 

True, but the HiHy is priced out of many people's price range. Minivans were successful because they were popular with the soccer moms of the population.

 

Toyota already has a RWD hybrid with the Lexus 600h, and the rumors are the next Supra will be a hybrid. Whenever it gets here.

What many seem to miss when they hear Toyota has a hybrid minivan in Japan is that it is a Estima. Which used to be sold here as the Previa. It is in between the Sienna and Mazda5 in size. Closer to the Mazda5. Those wanting a hybrid minivan would probably be disappointed in the size.
The Sienna is over a 1000 pounds heavier than the Camry. So using that drive train is out.

If Toyota was willing to price reasonably, and they would have to because to mpg numbers aren't going to be stellar. The HiHy's 28/28 is very good, but they won't stand out that much to most consumers. The city is 9mpg lower, but people will note the Odyssey also gets 28 on the highway.

 

It would/should be a bit lighter than a highlander with slightly better aerodynamics so I would think 30/30 should be attainable.

 

Currently, the Sienna is about 400 pounds heavier than a Highlander. Efficiency improvements to the engine and hybrid system should help, but it will be a smaller mpg number gap between it and the non-hybrid than with the Camry. While it could be the same percentage improvement, most will just see the whole number, and question if the cost increase is worth it.

A diesel or hydraulic hybrid might be a better choice for a minivan of US size.

 

The minivan is the next logical step. Minivans are bought by practical people, who would love the increase in mileage. Saving money on a family ride seems to me to be a no brainer.

 

Very true, totally agree with you. Sticking point might be that minivans are pretty cheap (relatively for what you get in amenities and size). Might be too expensive to put a hybrid drivetrain in. Also, they might be cannibalizing some Prius v sales if they made one.

 

A loaded Toyota Minivan today stickers for over $40,000 to me that aint cheap.

 

Are you a politician?

 

No I'm not a politician, I'm retired from an honest job.