Am I too paranoid?

Interesting your graph.

 

I always say It is not "Am I paranoid?" it is "Am I paranoid, enough?".

Fortunately, I have never used incentives nor bought to save money. (Although it IS a great side effect)

 

From Wikipedia, about CEO of Intel, Andy Grove:

Grove created a culture within Intel that allowed innovation to flourish. As CEO, he wanted his managers to always encourage experimentation and prepare for changes, making a case for the value of paranoia in business. He became known for his guiding motto: "Only the paranoid survive," and wrote a management book with the same title

So, no I don't think you should worry about a quality that helps you survive. I'm sure we can consider Toyota 'paranoid' under this definition, along with every other carmaker, or business for that matter.

With that being said, it is a bad idea to worry about your sanity w./ respect to HEVs/BEVs vs. gas prices.......because what we should ALL be worrying about is the stupidity of people who make car purchase decisions based on the what the price of gas currently IS as opposed to WHAT IT WILL BE over the course of them owning the car.

 

That is a nice graph and it shows that when the banking crisis hit and the economy crashed in Bush's final year as POTUS there was a resulting drop in demand for cars and gasoline. The drop in demand artificially deflated fuel prices until the end of 2010 and then prices reverted to what they were before the economic crisis began with a little seasonal variation but no upward trend. Also it looks like every time there is a sudden spike in gas prices there is a corresponding spike in HEV sales.

It sounds like you are afraid that the next economic crisis will bring back cheap oil and that will kill alternatives and strengthen the stranglehold of oil on transportation energy. I would like to see another line on your graph: HEV sales as a percentage of the overall new car market. The crisis didn't just drop HEV sales, all car sales dropped. Many alternative energy companies did die from the oil price crash and it is unfortunate that the 1986 congressional budget office's rec. of an oil import tariff to stabilize fuel prices and promote alternatives was ignored. If we had lower sales taxes and higher fuel taxes the economy overall would be more efficient and less subject to disruption by shifts in fuel prices. You are right to be afraid because a drop in fuel prices could easily lead to a drop in availability of alternatives to conventional gas vehicles. Consumers still haven't recovered from the last economic meltdown though so the only way demand for gas can drop low enough to drop the price is for average fuel economy to skyrocket. Therefore by the time oil prices crash again HEVs will already dominate the market.

It is nice to see the upward trajectory of HEV sales, as efficient vehicles are still scarce on the used market, so people with low income are currently forced to buy less efficient vehicles due to lack of alternatives.

 

Most people understand we are heading towards another market correction. The biggest question is to how bad will it be and length of time. There is currently no action being done by the government to prevent it nor cushion the hit once everything starts to slide.

 

...it would be a minority opinion but petroleum could be on a high price bubble like nat gas and you know what happened to nat gas price.

 

Actually, the fuel prices never reverted to the pre-recession peak.

The nationwide average for a gallon of gasoline of $4.08+ was reached in July, 2008. That was an all-time high. Even when adjusted for inflation, that price was higher than was faced by motorists during either the '73 or the '79-81 oil crises.

If inflation remains where it is, then the peak all-time price would be $5/gallon in 2020. In other words, if we can make the remaining 6+ years left in this decade without hitting the 2008-equivalent of $4.08, then the price could actually be $5/gallon (and higher) beyond 2020 and we would still be below the 2008 peak.

The main reason demand hasn't recovered is, well, the price. It's the old saying that "the solution to high oil prices is.........high oil prices."
People have started to cut back. U.S demand peaked in 2005-2007. We nearly reached 22 mbpd back then. Today, IIRC we're down to 18.7 mbpd.

But in the long run, demand from China and India will send gas prices soaring, most likely to new all-time highs.

 

As for worrying about what is coming, you should not. Worrying will not prevent nor prepare you to handle what is coming. It is best to base your current life on current or near future events. You have already made a decision on the best solutions currently for increased prices at the pump. You purchased one of the best MPG vehicles to reduce your overall pocket hit, keeping more money for you out of your check.
Now as long as your government does not go psycho like North Carolina recently and decide all hybrid owners are the reason they cannot pay their bills, you should be good to go for at least the next 5-8 years for gas price solution.

 

Very well stated. Worrying solves nothing. My thoughts. Worried? No. Concerned? Yes. But, many are ill preparred for things in their life that they have control over. Their concern needs to move from concern to worry to make a change.

 

short answer: You need a shrink.

long answer: The 2007-2008 global economic meltdown was cause by bad mortgages issued by wall street not car sales. HeV and PEV sales are still a small fraction of the total US auto sales which was estimated to be rom 14 to 15 Million.

BTW: If you are worried about the US economy then you need to look at how much credit-money is being borrowed (private + public) world wide verses the world wide GNP (how much credit is being produced). Economic Globalization links most of the world's money supply in one big pot so in theory alll you need to do now is look at the G20 (we will suppose that the big banker's reports is accurate and complete - okay?) The risk of another economic meltdown would be high if the rate of growth (credit generated) is much smaller than the rate of debt ( credit being consumed). One of the reasons, economist like Joseph Stiglitz argue against government austerity and for more public spending is to boost the rate of growth of credit - because the private sector is not producing the jobs and employment necessary to sustain the current level of credit that the banks must maintain to avoid bankruptcy.

 

Regardless of the economy, energy prices go up and down due to financial market speculation; however, the low demand of a sick economy is currently limiting how far up energy prices before the any finanical speculative bubble bursts.

Having an alternative energy vehicle or a hybrid - insulates you somewhat - so the owner of that big SUV is going to screaming about the high price of energy long before you do.

In the long run, gas price will go up but not by very much until the global economy picks up. Until the economy picks up - oil companies will be selling very much close to cost. Currently, economist are estimating this *economy recovery* (Great Recession for other) will not be for another three years at best.

 

No, I don't think you should be worried about hybrid sales collapsing as they did after the 2007-2008 timeframe.
The growth in sales in your chart is partially due to plugin hybrids. The market is actually growing as more companies make products that fit in that category.

Oil prices are fairly stable and haven't spiked again into the $140 range. I don't see a collapse in oil prices coming.

And people are starting to discover EVs are just more fun to drive. This will increase the market beyond just environmentally concerned people. Which means the hybrid + EV market will grow even faster.

 

Do increase in plug ins also increase the use of coal in states where coal is used?

DBCassidy

 

Coal use in general was way down in 2012 due to low nat gas prices and maybe weather factors. It will be interesting to see how 2013 comes out. The 2012 data were shown in the ClimateCentral.org report on green cars that was posted here. Let me know if you want a LINK. If there was any local situation that needed more coal, I am not aware of it. Keep in mind the west coast EV conclave is lots of hydro and renewables with possible some coal power import from out of state to CA.

Hybrids Better for Climate than Leaf, Tesla in Most States | Climate Central

 

Yes you are paranoid. You should be looking at take rate, not raw sales. There was a major auto recession where hybrids fell less than other cars. Hybrid cars acted more on auto recession than the price of gasoline.

The reason hybrids and plug-ins will grow are plug-ins are new. Its the plug-in side of the market with growth. That will drive hybrid technologies price premium down. The prius is still dependent on yen/dollar and japanese cost considerations. Toyota can assure growth by moving manufacturing to the US. Cafe standards guarantee that auto companies will support hybrid and plug-ins as it is the least expensive way to meet these standards.

Gasoline prices may go up or down next year. IMHO down is more likely, but plug-in sales will increase even with falling gasoline prices. Gasoline prices are likely to be higher in 5 years though, and people know this.

 

I wonder what electricity prices will be like once 50% of the cars on the road are EV's.