Tesla readies smaller, cheaper crossover, sedan by 2017

I'm a buyer at $30k with a dependable 250 mile range.

 

Thanks- any info on the what the range of this car might be?

 

That car can be delivered to you no earlier than the year 2030 by my estimates.

 

Sounds like a Good deal

 

It's still at least 3 years out so any range is speculation.
That said, I am guessing the base model will be between 150-200.

 

Hoping to get at least 8 yrs out of my c, and definitely hoping there'll be some compelling all-electric options by then. An affordable tesla with 200+ range and a more matured recharging infrastructure would rank pretty high on my list to be sure!

 

What assumptions are you relying upon for that estimate?

 

Obviously lots of assumptions and wild speculation. The Model S is rated at 265 ideal miles and costs $80k. The Gen 3 is expected to cost $40k and have an ideal 200 miles range in 2017. So not even the Model S can give 250 dependable miles.

I am expecting the Gen 4 model to come out 5-7 years afterwards and increase ideal range to 300 miles which will hopefully give a dependable range of 250 miles as brucepmiller wants but it's unlikely the car will cost less than the Gen 3 model. Price usually creeps up.

So I expect the Gen 5 model to come out sometime around 2030 that will have range up to 400 miles and cost $40-$50k. The stripper model with the 250 miles dependable range might be sold for $30k.

I think I am too optimistic with the 100 mile range increases per half decade. The EV1 15 years ago had about the same range as the Leaf. So the increase in battery technology was eroded by increased weight and size of the Leaf.

 

You can count me in for this! Getting to take advantage of those supercharges? I am in.

 

Also the Model S is a pretty large vehicle, so hopefully a smaller, less expensive vehicles will have a slightly higher range than you suggest.

 

Call me a luddite, but I still think the general idea of big batteries in cars is stupid. Not stupid for Tesla at this time of being a toy maker for people with a lot of money, but stupid for mainstream production.

After all, most people have < 40 mile trips 99% of the time. For the most part in the US today, an EV is a second car in the family. I would hate to have to incur the costs and energy penalties involved in lugging around all that dead weight. Since Tesla and Musk are far from stupid, I'll take a contrarian position and say that the future 30k USK Tesla is talking about will have a much reduced range compared to their cars today, and it will be a GOOD thing.

 

Ok, you are a Luddite ;-)
Actually, I understand your point.
However, I don't see why you call the Model S a toy unless you also call BMW, Mercedes, high end Audis and such Toys as well?

Why have a 10 gallon tank in a Prius? You could save 50 pounds, at least, by only having a 5 gallon tank.
Why have a passenger airbag when passengers are not the average?

Supposedly people that could do with 200 miles will buy the smaller 60kWh pack, rather than the 85kWh pack.

And even if someone buys the big pack, and never needs the full range. Their driving is still more efficient than any gas car, although not as efficient as other plug ins.

 

Yep, sounds right to me too. Just so we understand though, the 250 Wh/mile consumption presumes nice weather, non aggressive driving, and moderate speeds. On any lousy day of the year that range can drop to 100 miles.

 

My speculation it will be designed for a smaller maximum pack than 85kwh. It all depends on where batteries are in 2 years when most of the design will get frozen. IMHO Tesla has a volume idea of what the pack should look like and that will set maximum size. If you want a bigger pack you buy an S. In 2017 there will be many more super chargers out there. I find it likely that a 70 kwh will satisfy most potential buyers. I expect tesla will find a way to make that pack much less expensive than today with improving battery technology.

 

I really think the range extending battery trailer idea is brilliant. You have enough range for your daily commute built into the car. Should you need to go on a longer trip, you just hitch on the battery trailer. Doesn't have have to be a trailer, could be a huge hulking battery that is forklifted into your trunk. Don't know about the logistics though.

 

The company that pushed for quick battery_swap went bankrupt this week.

I'm sure a host of alternatives will sprout up to service the single EV car owners who need occasional long distance driving. I personally think Nissan is on the right track by partnering with car rental agencies. In the same way that people drive their cars to the train station for 'park and ride,' I think the idea could be easily extended to an 'EV to ICE' for a long trip.

Using the best and cheapest tool for the job makes a lot of sense:

Bicycles for < 5 miles each way;
EVs for urban transport or < 50 miles each way;
ICE cars for < 350 miles;
Trains for 350 - 1000 miles;
Planes for > 1000 miles

 

I am up for....

 

For people that need it twice a year, 200 mile packs and superchargers along with the ability to rent cars is good enough.

For people that need to routinely go over 200 miles, then a phev is the best idea. Why not have the ice in the vehicle all the time if you are paying for it. PHEVs simply need to get better. I have hopes that in 5 years toyota or someone else will give you 40+ miles EV with a descent range extending engine at an affordable price and attractive package.