Crazy Volt incentives makes me want to trade

Since the overall fleet MPG was not convincing (but was easy to get), I went out an pulled the per vehichle type
(raw data from), then added prius lift back data by hand (from Fulley) and then plotted the number of gallons saved (assuming 12K miles per year) saved if someone switchted to the Prius.. The chart is below. This shows the degrading gap/savings that I was talking about.



of course most people don't do that type of analysis, they just look at the EPA ratings of say a 40MPG cruze ECO or a Hunday Accent or even a BMW 320I at 36MPG highway and do some estimation of fuel costs vs car cost or fuel savings vs performance and make a decision.

For example in 2005 a Prius would save 275 gallons over a small wagon, but in 2012 that savings has dropped to 175 gallons, a reduction in the savings per year of 100 gallons, making the decision to not get a prius even larger. If I do the same with respect to the "average' hybrid the savings reduction is even lower and the drop more noticeable as the average hybrid MPG as relatively consistently dropped (as more lower end hybrids are averaged in and the Prius market share slides).

 

I don't know how it relates but as a consumer for a car in 2005 and in 2012, the end points of your graph, I know that MSRP of the vehicle is a huge factor in calculating the savings gap. Back in 2005, compact cars were in the $15 - $17k region, specifically, my Civic LX was $17k. The payback time frame for the difference in price of a then $25k Prius was not attractive. Today, a Civic LX is north of $20k. My PiP? still $25k. So while the fuel economy savings gap may be shrinking, savings in dollars has increased dramatically. I was dismayed last year to find that my $17k was only enough to buy stripper models with wind up windows and often with no AC.

 

May consider subsidizing cleaner cars and companies(because people need jobs) in order to be able to breathe. China's air pollution too much for some foreign executives | The Tennessean | tennessean.com

 

In 05, the MSRP for a Prius option 2 is about $22K. The different is the same.

 

$24,200
The Toyota Prius Hybrid models and prices

 

You link is for 2013 model.
Try this one:
2005 Toyota Prius Summary

2005 Prius base MSRP = $21,275.

 

Unlike volt owners, I took: $0, nada, zilch on tax, state, or federal incentives.

How about you?

DBCassidy

 

Problem is, government motors declared bankrupcy , got the feds to bail out their tushes. Then after reorganizing, refuse to honor warranty work on pre-banhruptcy Impala owners.

Not a favorable corporate image for doing business and treating customers shoddy. Our hard earned tax dollars support this type of corporate behavior.

DBCassidy

 

If you don't like it, that's fine. Bankruptcy law is used by corporations to get rid of debt and liabilities. You can ask congress to change the law.

 

not only that, but they screwed all the stockholders to the tune of 100%. then, after reorganizing, they sold all new stock. now, i know most don't feel bad for wall street, and i agree, but there were tons of individuals, many of whom were retirees living off of that income.

 

Interesting data. Thanks for the work.

I think that there could be a least a couple of causes for this. First, poor value cars, within each segment have died off...what I mean is that, as interest in higher mpg cars has risen, within a category, people actually have started to look more at mpg. For example, if two sedans each cost $20K the one with higher mpg now gets the sale more often rather than the one with the bigger cup holders or better 0-60mph time. No innovation occured, but the higher mpg car now gets a higher percentage of sales than in the past ... therefore the mpg for that category increases based on the relative sales volume of each car model. I'm not saying that no innovation has happened...just that my example shows how a portion of that gain, can be based on innovation.

Second, as there is some competition for higher mpg within categories and mpg is now considered a more valuable feature, car makers have made some minor improvements in mpg of existing cars because a few hundred dollars of increased manufacturing costs can yield an even higher selling price. Therefore there are some relatively minor things that car makers can do to increase mpg (by modest amounts) that are much cheaper than a full hybrid design like a Prius...so they have done them now that mpg is an important feature and the very high mpg of hybrids, essentially, has made the low mpg models an embarassment.

Mike

 

Definitely been innovations being deployed, with Direct Injection, Variable valve timing, taller gearing (6 speeds), urbos, and in the truck/suvs cylinder management. But agree with the second part, that some relative minor things do improve mpg by most amount allowing higher prices. In 2005 there were a few high milage choices so other things (room, style, power) lead to alternative buying choice. In 2012 there were a lot more choices (e.g. GM had nothing above 32. in 2005, in 2012 it had the Cruze, sonice and volt all above 40MPG highway. The Equoniq in 2005 was at 23mpg, in 2012 there is one at 32.. a huge improvement.

As is classic in innovation, a disruptive product often spurs significant sustaining innovations, which slows the rate of growth of the disruptive technology. Its not uncommon for the next innovation to overtake it, e.g. the floppies went from 8 to 5.5 to 3.25 very fast, all while hard drives just kept improving (not replace) and where all then almost as fast as the rose they floppies were replaces with other tech.

 

I really have nothing to add besides...

$659 a month for a car note?!??!

I paid less than that per month on the first house I bought when I was 21...LOL. And I balked about that!! Thats an insane car payment F8L! If you were my bf, I wouldnt have gotten mad but you'd definitely be buying me something nice to keep me quiet

 

If those retirees needed to have guaranteed incomes, they should have bought treasuries instead of going to vegas. I lost some money on the bonds, less on the stock.

 

I imagine that there are a lot of retirees who could not have thought of a more conservative, safe place to park their retirement funds than General Motors. They certainly did not think that they were gambling. They would sooner thought the US government would go bankrupt.

 

Yep, I remember that, retirees, gave a lot of their years working. Then they got short changed.

DBCassidy

 

Just like ENRON !

 

USA Today (050413) article on sagging Chevy Volt sales in April. The Nissan Leaf and maybe even the Telsa S outsold the Chevy Volt in April. Lower, stabilized gas prices and increased competition given as reasons. Volt sales were down 11% in April 2013 versus April 2012. But, Volt sales were up 3% so far in 2013. Nissan reduced the price of the Leaf $6000 in January to $28,000. GM is currently losing money on the Volt at the current price. A second generation Volt is due out in 2016. Nissan sold 1937 Leafs in April, more than four times April 2012. GM sold 1306 Volts. Telsa sold an average of 1600 Telsa S models per month in the first quarter, 2013, and is expected to sell 20,000 this year. Not one mention of the Prius Plug In. Sorry, unable to link USA Today articles.