Prius Family Sales - January 2013

To me its a price issue so incentives would be what I'd recommend. I nearly bought one last December because of incentives.

 

Available only in the Northeast and Western coastal States!

 

Yes,availability is part of it.
Another though is just that January was terrible for all plug-ins.
Only exception is Tesla, but they are working through their initial orders so I don't really count them.

Didn't LEAF, Volt and PiP all offer big end of year incentives? If am not surprised to see a dip in sales and would expect some recovery in the months to come.

 

You can't sell what you don't offer. Liftback PHV sales are restricted to a few states, c and v PHV sales are nonexistant. (a c PHV would be real work, but a v PHV is not much more than a trip through the parts bin away)

 

As far as boosting PiP sales? Like everyone I would cite availability as the primary reason sales are not stellar.

I would hope this is simply something Toyota plans on ramping up. But I would also add that I believe Toyota has done a poor job of gettting the message out in regards to the benefits and capabilities of The Plug In Prius. They are literally singing to the choir right now, and given the limited availability also selling almost specifically to the already Prius initiated.

Take Toyota's most recent commercial. The Prius "hum" commercial. It does a good job of illuminating that there now exists a entire family of Prius vehicles of which someone can choose. But in a fanciful, almost unreal childish way, The Prius is basically presented as now existing in 3 sizes...Small...Medium and Large. The Plug in Prius is presented in a manner so vague as simply to be "even one you can plug in". But no further information or real reason "why" one would want to plug one in, is given.

Not that any one commercial can or should cover all things. But I think Toyota could do a better job of really outlining what the Plug In Prius really is all about, and what it's capabilities and benefits in the real world are.

I know from my Non-Prius initiated friends that they have no idea what The Plug In Prius is all about. I've heard everything all over the map from them, from there is really no benefit, outside of being able to charge your battery at night and start the day with a full charge.....to The Plug In Prius is almost a completely electric vehicle, that rarely runs on gas at all. With The Leaf, The Volt and The PiP, the fiction invented becomes a phantom vehicle that represents something of all of them....or nothing from any of them, and quiet frankly...."and now there is one you can even plug in"...even with additional humming, is not doing much to set the record straight.

 

The market for Plug-Ins is fairly limited and will be for the next decade. There is just a huge demographic that wouldn't even consider one.

It is hard to do national advertising for a car that is only sold in a few places and for which so little refueling infrastructure exists.

Many are put off by the home charger installation cost or the lack of charging at the office or shopping center and have no concept of amortizing the cost of the home charger over many tens of thousands of miles. Others just unfamiliarity. Others look at the complexity of range extending engines and are scared of the future maintenance costs or are uncertain of the resale value.

Add in the huge number of cars today that are leased and that plays against long term thinking too. Did you know 90% of cars are financed (even leases are a form of financing) and only 10% of people pay cash. It is all about the monthly payment.

It is only the lucky few that can invest the extra money for the long term and who also happen to live in areas where a plug-in makes sense. The ideal candidate for a plug-in has been described as someone who drives from home to the train or the office over a short distance and who today uses a old clunker because it barely gets warmed up before it gets parked and waits 10 hours for the return trip home. Now tell me why that person is going to lay out the cash to buy a new car with different technology that requires him to buy a charger and think long term in an environment where he may change jobs and locations not by choice tomorrow.

The standard Prius Hybrid outsells all the others because it has become familiar (and thus safer) and it probably cannibalizes plug-in sales even within its brand. But even with a ten year history, think of the advertising it took to even get to where people will consider it today and also think of some of the "uncertainty" questions they ask even after a million have been sold.

 

Other day at Toyota dealer, I asked the price of the plug-in Prius battery and he couldn't get it. But my 2011 battery is $2,800, battery only.

Last I recall the diff in annual fuel cost on sticker was $100 between PiP and regular. tough to justify $6,500 minus tax credit (and minus spare tire).

One very avid PiP owner and road bicyclist told me he really wished the PiP had a longer EV range, more like 20 miles.

Need better batteries!

 

I just bought a liftback. If I could have gotten a PiP for some of the deals I've heard people were getting a couple months ago I might have gotten one. Deals like $27-28K.

In my opinion the PiP has two major problems, range and cost.

No matter how few miles someone drives in a day, an 11 mile range just sounds ridiculously short. For myself, my daily commute happens to be 11 miles if I don't go out for lunch. Still, I would much prefer a range of 25 miles or so. That would handle 99% of my driving. Even though 11 miles would benefit me tremendously it's the perception of such a low number that makes me pause.

The cost is the second hurdle. It's about a $5K upcharge from a similar liftback, BUT that's on top of the fact that the Prius is already perceived as a costly car in its class. Someone who is already waffling over the extra $5-8K from a 30MPG car to a Prius liftback and who knows they'll never recoup that cost in gas savings can't possibly justify another $5K for a PiP that doesn't add anything to the experience beyond the 11 miles of EV driving. To add insult to injury the premium price gets you less car in some ways too (no spare tire, less cargo storage, etc.).

It's a difficult sale but a longer EV range could go a long way to improving the situation. After it's all said and done only those people who value the Plug-in aspect above all else can justify a PiP. Make that 11 miles 25 or better yet 50 and it's a much more attractive option.

 

The perception of "range" being low isn't a daunting challenge to overcome. After all, the audience is focused on "performance" numbers related to efficiency, not the old school more-is-better with speed & horsepower. Fortunately, the test-drive experience can be quite compelling.

When it comes to "cost", there's a big question to ask. Is the point to entice someone who would otherwise purchase a regular Prius or it is to offer an affordable plug-in hybrid? There's a big difference. A larger battery-pack would offer more, but the tradeoff is higher cost. You also have to sacrifice both internal space and efficiency after depletion.

At least with the plug-in Prius, the system will be refined over time. Like with the computer industry, there will be battery & cost improvements. It's not like the automotive industry a few years ago, where the definition of "improvement" was to just make the vehicle bigger with no concern about efficiency.

 

Cost cost cost....

$5k for what I thought was $300 savings is a 17 year payback or infinity when you factor the time value of money. No way does that make any financial sense. When much of the country uses coal to generate electricity, it doesn't make much environmental sense either.

It could make environmental sense if you have PVs and have excess or live in a hydro area.

The biggest sales are probably HOV related. As that clock winds down, those will decrease.

And then there are alternatives. A Leaf with a large price cut. The C-max Hybrid with let's see double the range and less cost. Oh yeah - it is faster also and the max EV speed is higher. And available in 50 states (maybe 48).

I'll tell you one thing. The Leaf price cut is interesting me but it also has to make people wait ... since all plug ins may cut to compete. It also makes people wait thinking that prices are coming down fast. The price cut made me drop my Tesla reservation - think of the future price cuts there and what that is going to do to depreciation.

 

Little bit disappointing liftback sales numbers.

I glance at the 'Drive' section of newspapers with new car ads. I always see new Corolla LE at $15,888 while Prius Two is about $22,700

I had a new Corolla parked next to me last couple days. Corolla and Prius are pretty much same size, same power. General public sees the liftback Prius as an expensive Corolla (from the outside) that costs about $7k more and looks a little odd.
The average person doesn't care that Prius has a liftback and Corolla a trunk. Actually, trunks are awfully convenient - less to lift up to throw the groceries in.

Conventional cars are getting a slight boost in mpgs with new engine tech like direct injection with little price increase. Makes an even tougher sell for electrified cars.

And, hybrid battery is expensive - $2,800 with tax quoted last weekend at Piercey (that is with the core charge subtracted).

Prius is a pretty nice car, stupendous fuel economy (55.x this tank), HSD works really well, but a little bit low on power and a little bit bland driving dynamics....

We'll see what Toyota can crank out for the 4th Gen Prius

 

Makes you wonder what goes through the minds of GM executives, with the price difference between Cruze & Volt so dramatically different.

Prius (liftback) is a little bigger and clearly offers a smooth drive. The efficiency stands out a decent amount too. That's been working as a selling point in this market fairly well, especially as the traditional sedan look fades and gas prices increase.

Prius c in Japan is an entirely different matter. It sure is working some magic over there. The average person in that market embraces the change, it's a welcome approach in this world of climate-change and oil-dependency.

The next generation certainly will make things interesting.

 

When I was shopping for a Prius the salesman was pushing the v... I asked about the PiP and he did not have answers. In my area I was scouting for areas to recharge and it is just not happening here so I have my trusty lift back. When she's ready to be retired, I am hoping the plug in concept catches on here in 12-15 years... And by then maybe I can embrace the concept.

Commercials still need to get a bit more mainstream... The Raphael Saadiq commercial rocks... They just need to air it more... along with more benefits of how versatile the Prius is.

 

With gas at $3.50/gal @ 50mpg it costs $0.07/mile. PIP is a tough sell when electricity is $0.10 or 0.13/kw. Combine that with a short range, even with the rumored G4 @ 24 miles, not to mention station and installation costs for a home charging system it just doesn't make financial sense.

 

Right. Either Toyota has ridiculously expensive batteries or they're deliberately pricing the PiP high to try to avoid cannibalizing Prius liftback sales.

The PiP doesn't do much for the high-mileage drivers who buy the Prius for gas savings and it doesn't do much for the winter driver. At least the Volt and Leaf have a highly differentiated driving experience.

That said, if I were looking to buy a new Prius, I'd want to wait until the end of the year for the large incentives and pick up a PiP from a high-incentive state.

But does it really matter? What matters more is getting people to buy more of their hybrids. The new Corolla is coming soon and it will be manufactured in the USA for the US market. They could do as they do in Europe and manufacture a hybrid variant and fit it comfortably into the price gap between the c and the liftback. I'm sure that another US-built hybrid with conventional looks would help sales. It could also increase the NA-assembled hybrid volume closer to 10k per month (the RX450h is coming to Canada in 2014/2015) without having the political difficulty of moving Prius production to the USA, and that could help them begin US production of more of the hybrid components, which is a key goal in trying to lower prices without hitting profit margins.

 

It's worth not letting the coal myth stand.

In 2012 42% of US electricity was generated by coal. 2012 is forecast to be less than 40% and the long term proportion is expected to be around 40% even as total capacity grows.

You don't have to be in a hydro area or have home PV. You can have nuclear or natural gas. Or biomass. Or you can pay a little extra for renewable power.

Note that in addition, there is a constant process of addition and replacement of capacity and the new plants become cleaner and more efficient. (The newer coal plants raise the cost of coal power to be cleaner, while the newer natural gas plants lower the price of natural gas power). In adition there is a continuing rapid increase in renewable capacity. The result is that the grid will continue to become cleaner per Wh.

 

First, that high-mileage comment can be misleading. Remember, a plug-in hybrid could sacrifice depleted efficiency for the sake of the electric drive. That isn't the case for PiP. I got 52 MPG yesterday on my 132-miles of driving around, without having the change to recharge. All I had left was 2 miles of EV from the day before. That's fantastic efficiency, especially considering the high-temp outside was only 18°F.

Second, besides the 52 MPG depleted example, there's all the local driving around. My winter driving is averaging 20 MPG higher than with the 2010 at it's worst. On less extreme winter days, the results can be quite a bit better. The benefit of plugging may not be well pronounced, but it definitely there and winter doesn't last that long anyway. When warmer outside, the system really shines.

 

Educate the public of the benefits of PIP