Will the EV survive in America?

I know nothing about electric, If you wanted to charge 12 plug-ins at the same time how many 440v chargers would you need and how big of a supply line? If in the future!

 

It all depends on how many amps the 440v chargers use. Let's say it is 10 amps. So you would need a total of 120 amps at 440v. This is not that big a deal...most (recent) homes have a 240v supply at 200 amps. Many small commercial buildings have much more than this...i.e. restaurants.

Mike

 

I'm not very familiar with oil and gas reserves off top of my head, so could you quote good sources saying oil saying status of major oil reserves?

One thing I recall is a talk with a Stanford professor, an expert in energy saying we will be using fossil fuels for quite some time (like 50 more years+)

 

Thanks!

 

Gas stations are already well established and there are plenty to serve the need, so there's no real concept of "new" anymore. Could they also provide high-speed charging? That's an entirely different situtation. Demand is still many many years off though.

The thought/concern/focus is on existing businesses drawing customers by offering charging-stations. 440-volt with enough capacity (total amps) available isn't exactly something already built into existing parking lots... but there is a compeling reason to offer it.

 

charging volts don't drive supply line size, its the total power, Volt*Amp or (kWh), that matter.

If one is looking at 440v so its as saying its about fast charging, then if one would be expected to charge to quick charge providing 20kWh in 15min (i.e. about 80-100miles worth of charge), then its about 60kW draw * 12 = 720kW max demand supply, and if one add's a 15% safety margin its about 850kW Service, or about the same as 15-20 houses. Its pretty big, and in places like Cali, where there are serious demand charges, it would be quite expensive.

 

Thanks!

 

if you don't mind me picking a few nits ;
I think the appropriate voltage name is 480. The Q.C. I use most frequently cranks out 125 amps ie 50kW's +. So you could alternately use that 50kW's to run 15 Chargers only pulling 3kW's ... or 7 EVSE's pulling 6.5kW's. For fun, mix & match the total however you like.

SGH-I717R

 

It would be nice if we had a consistent name.

The variance with 110-120 and 220-240 certainly hasn't made identification easy.

 

This kind of reminds me of the railroads when air travel first became popular. The railroads thought that they were in the railroad business, so they didn't change with the times and ended up losing business. They should have really thought of themselves as being in the transportation business and adapted to the new mode of transportation.

In order to adapt, gas stations (oil companies) can't consider themselves as being strictly in the gas business. If they want to survive, they will have to adapt to the energy business and provide a means for quickly charging a vehicle. If they don't, just like the fledgling air travel business, new competitors will come along and reap the benefits.

If someone came up with a means of charging vehicles quickly and less expensively than charging at home, they will be able to capture a new marketplace.

 

He's right. But . . . . Does the Stanford professor say exactly what "quite some time ... (50 more years+)" actually means? In other words, there's no doubt we'll still be "using" it. What value is it, if we can't continue to keep "using it" at the exponential rate that the economy needs to grow (just to pay interest/tax on the deficit) - how really important is the bare fact - that "yes, we'll still be using it".
Similarly, what is meant by "Good Source" for oil reserves. One can Google tons of jpg / graphs of oil field discoveries/production over the past 100yrs. Past oil field discoveries follow the same path. From the late 1800's more and more discoveries ... through the mid 1960's (some countries a bit later) .... then discoveries head down .... less & less & less (let's ignore these fields eventually stop producing) Take U.S. production as an example. Dozens of posts (from DOE, to oil companies, to doomsday peeps) show U.S. discoveries spiraling upwards until roughly the mid 1960's - then the bell shaped graphs spiral down - down down. doesn't mean we run out. doesn't mean we don't find new discoveries. We continue to find new ways to eek out a bit more from almost dry holes. We eek out new (tremendously expensive) discoveries deep deep under the ocean. We make use of low grade tar sands. The junk aint no where near what the good stuff is .... but we use it. Same with the rest of the world. World population exponentially increases - so HOW in hell do you keep oil/gas discovery/production up exponentially to match demand ... or even come close to it (never minding the 50/60/70yr old oil field's production dries up). Matching "new field" discoveries to more and more population/urban growth aint happening. Then you also have to match new discovery for the ones that dry up too. One doesn't have to lay out exact billions of barrels per year numbers of world supplies to have this hammer drop on our heads. With oil roughly at $100/bbl, we'd be gushing it out as fast as we could, if it was there to gush. I'd be curious to know why the Stanford expert takes solace that there'll still be some in 50yrs.

 

What is your take on this site from the API? They run commercials with the blond lady during primetime.

Energy Tomorrow

"Contrary to the often repeated and vastly misleading statement that the United States holds only 2 percent of the world’s oil reserves, the United States has enough energy to power 65 million cars for 60 years and heat 60 million homes for 160 years."

Reserves | Energy Tomorrow

 

Thanks for the link. I've never read through their PR website before. Never knew it existed. It looks top rate. The firm that does their marketing - I have heard of. It's been around for over a half century.

The PR firm's marketing products may look a lot more slick nowadays, but back then - these old ads were considered top notch. I've saved a bunch of them. And it appears that both product's advertisements show how willing they are to fight for their life.
I think I'm going to have to start saving API advert's too. Odds are, 2 or 3 decades I'll look back on them - and be equally appalled at what people will say in order to generate tons of wealth.

 

lol, I mean, can you imagine doctors running ads about how you shouldn't go see the doctor? or car dealers running ads saying that you don't need to buy a new car right now?
it's a nice PR stunt. however, it's pretty well-divorced from reality.

 

Interesting... that led me to some digging that turned up Table 4.1 Technically Recoverable Crude Oil and Natural Gas Resource Estimates, 2009. So, if we count "unproved reserves", we obviously "have" way more oil than just our "proven" reserves. Question is, how much of it is economically feasible to recover? If we were somehow able to extract all of that and we continued at our rate of ~20 million barrels/day, we'd run out in 30 years...

Given all the monstrosity class SUVs I see running around in my area being driven solo or w/minimal cargo and passengers, I don't see national consumption going down significantly, esp. when we're no longer in a recession. It'll take a crisis, supply shock or major price increase for Americans to temporarily wake up.

 

I think, for the present the Hybrid is the only choice for a one car family. Pure electrics have a range limit that will limit their role to being a second car even if it is used as the primary car. You will always need a long trip car. Pure electric cars are limited as family vehicles--far cry from the ubiquitious mini-van. What would make the EV car a solo car would be if a swapable standardized battery pack could be developed and "Gas/Energy Stations" would simple do a quick swap with a fully charged pack. They do this in a crude way with butane tanks now. This is what made cordless tools work--swapable batteries so one could charge while the other is in use. Obviously there would need to be standardization and some kind of automated tray system so you would park your car on a pre positioned pad and a robotic process would exchange the packs. Not that complicated. Energy packs would need to be standardized. And that could be done. Perhaps 3 size packs just like grades of gas. People are willing to stop for 5-10 minutes for a charge but not an hour. Till then pure EV is just a niche product unable to generate enough profit for energy sellers to invest in the infrastructure. If government gets involved, it will retard progress even more. It has to be built on a sound economic model to unleash the creative dogs of capitalism.

 

A few other things about their numbers.
They calculate the same rate of use in the future as we have today. No growth?

One of the biggest issues I have is where they talk about 'enough reserves to fuel 65 million cars for 60 years' or such. BIG DEAL, in 2009 there were 254 million light duty passenger vehicles on the road. So really, it is more like 15 years!!

Seems a wake up call when even the twisted marketing of the oil and coal industry says we only have a 15 year supply (again not taking growth into consideration) in our own territory.

 

I think Toyota is taking the most sensible, useful approach for alternative fuel and advanced tech cars. Obviously the Prius is the most successful highly efficient car today. Yet, the extra cost for Prius is an issue. If Toyota can bring the cost down a little bit and make the liftback Prius a little more robust and a little more pleasing to look at, I think it can maybe make top 10 of all vehicles in US in 5 years. That's a tall order and the stakes are high for this next gen. The Plugin will use the same chassis as liftback.

I have looked far and wide for a better all around car than my 2011 Prius, and I do not see one at this time. That's a good thing!

The biggest issue with any electrified vehicles is the cost, size, weight, energy density, usable life, etc... of the traction batteries and to a lesser degree the battery management, motors, inverter. This is what many people don't come to grips with including a former engineering director whose now an airline captain (he's my bro in law).

 

Cheep fuel serves to restore/grow economic recoveries, all the while depleting supplies further. Kicking (what Prez Bush called) our oil addiction is harder than kicking drugs, because oil is what made our system what it is. It's the media's job to see drama published, because it sells air time. Running stories up the flag pole about failed and/or battery/high tech eco-companies sells air time.

What if main-stream media ran the same drama-gloom about the traditional auto industry. In fear, might that not cause people to pull out of the stock markets? ... generate so much fear that maybe banks would get run on? After all, the demise of the traditional auto market - brought on by limited oils supplies and the paradym shift to an ever downward spiraling economy does NOT cause people to blindly cause people to believe in the status quo. The traditional auto industry does get their OWN version of gloomy coverage like this ... but you have to search for it:
The Demise of the Car | Peak Prosperity

We see "eco-hightech" company struggles as being part and parcel with poor government over sight / financial mismanagement. But if our culture/main stream media starts asking questions about, "Will the traditional auto survive in America" - and one grasps that its demise is directly related to the downward spiral of cheep/easily accessable oil, well ... like the heroin addict ... best to take another hit, rather than deal with it right here & now.

 

I missed something. I just heard recently that US domestic production is skyrocketing and that recent fracking technology and assocated discoveries now puts the US to be free from imported oil by 2020 and a net exporter by 2025. That is far faster than anyone dreamed 10 years ago. So I'm not seeing any trending down in the global supplies. Somwhere I read that only about 5% of the world's oil suply has been discovered. EV must compete with oil. That is the only way it will become efficient. If it only survives because oil is depleted, than we can expect energy prices to skyrocket. Drill baby drill! More Nukes please !! NG for the masses!! It all will put downward pressure on electricity prices making EV a compeditive option.