Bob Lutz: Volt plug-in powertrain should have gone into Escalade first

Ha! "Battering Ram of Death". Lutz loves the limelight and doesn't hesitate to say strange things to get the coverage. Fun post to read.

 

Well, given the profit margins they make on these vehicles, they could have
1) added the power train
2) loaded up the gingerbread
3) kept the cost similiar to the non hybrid version
4) market the hell out of it as a snob appeal version
5) don't discount it like you could with other versions of the car (see snob appeal.)

And they would have made a bunch of money. Instead, they went with the underwhelming 2 mode system.

 

You know, my other car is a minivan.
I could appreciate a 25 MPG minivan like he said.
We need a good MPG vehicle that can haul 4x8 plywood from Home Depot.
That's what America needs. It would be OK if the 4x8's were on the roof, but that's the capability we need, IMHO.

 

One of the things I miss about my 2005 VW Jetta Wagon is the two longitudinal roof rails that I could clamp cross bars on and carry 100kg of cargo including 4x8 sheets of plywood. I don't think that would work on a Gen III without sticking some non-aerodynamic kludge up in the air because of the extra front to back curvature in the Prius roof

 

A: waternoodles

Bob Wilson

 

This is how I remember it:

• Generation I
  • 1997-2000, NHW10 1.5L compact sedan
    • sold new only in Japan, it has shown up world-wide
    • a handful of examples continue to run
  • 199x, Chevy EV-1 compact electric
    • leased only in California, destroyed at end of lease
    • no known, running examples, even today
• Generation II
  • 2001-03, NHW11 1.5L compact sedan
    • sold in Japan, North America, and Europe
    • ~54,000 in North America, ~45,000 still running
  • 2009-current, Chevy Volt, compact sedan
    • sold in North America, Europe, others(?)
    • approaching NHW11 sales
• Generation III
  • 2004-09, NHW20 1.5L full-size hatchback
    • sold world-wide
    • ~1,000,000 world-wide
  • 2001-current, Chevy Belt-Assisted (BAS) auto-stop
    • various models
    • 10s of thousands sold
• Generation IV
  • 2010-current, ZVW30 1.8L larger full-size hatchback
    • sold world-wide
    • approaching 1,000,000 with ~250,000/year
  • 2006-2012, Chevy two-mode
    • sold North America
    • 10s of thousands sold

In response to a series of incrementally improving Prius, GM tried two dead ends and only the Volt appears to be serious competition. I don't fault their attempts but GM has lost a decade, billions of development dollars, and earned a lot of ill-will from their disappointed customers . . . not counting today's band of Volt owners.

If the Volt architecture is to survive, it needs another generation:

• larger size
• better gas mileage

Toyota did that with the NHW10->NHW11->NHW20 series and GM needs to figure out how to 'build-on-the-shoulders' instead of 'stomping on the toes' of their engineers.

Bob Wilson

 

They really messed up. Imagine an Escalade advert, a Prius on the left with 50MPG hanging above it, the Escalade on the right, with 60MPGe hanging above it. How many people would LOVE to have an Escalade that "gets better gas mileage" than a Prius, but is still a giant 4x4 thing. Sell it as the only engine option, people would still buy it.

The 60MPGe is a pure guess, be interesting if someone could make a better estimate of the EPA rating of a voltec Escalade.

 

Even with the Volt's powerful battery system , the current Escalade is way too fat and heavy to go very far on batteries unless its going down a mountain . By fat - I mean its frontal wind area is way too large so aerodynamic drag becomes a significant challenge at a speeds lower than most of us want or have to go. By heavy - I mean the curb weight is too much for the propulsion system to sustain fuel efficiently. Given today's battery pack energy density levels, Over weight PHEV and EV are a no starter. You don't have to look too far either for an example, Ford is finding this the hard way with the C-Max - the C-Max is a great concept but the Ford design process allow the C-Max to get way too fat and heavy. From the Japanese documentary I saw on the Toyota design process of the 3rd generation Prius - there was a really heavy engineering and design emphasis on keeping the Prius' weight down - Toyota and its contractors/suppliers had to work very hard on it (especially wrt to materials and testing)

 

Is there a reason you left out all of the other Toyota efforts?

Is the Prius it's own independent effort that just carries a Toyota badge and the have never introduced any other innovations beyond the HSD?

 

Bob - the pool noodle idea is inspired. Up to now I kept a few of the cardboard wedges that Ikea gives out, but I'll definitely keep the noodles in mind.

Does anyone have an educated guess about what a plug-in hybrid version of a big SUV would get? I do not have a clue, but can not imagine that it would be anywhere close to 60 mpge - just take a look at the differences in size, shape and weight between the regular Prius and the Prius V which are relatively small and still give about a 20% hit in mpg. Then compare the same with the Volt and the Escalade - the Volt has an mpge of less than 100 and I bet the % hit to fuel economy would be huge - just my gut feeling it would be far north of 50%. If the regular escalade gets high teens for mileage I'd guess that a plug-in version would be high 20's at best.

So I do agree that Lutz's sentiment. If GM had put a Volt like system in a big SUV it would have delivered better fuel savings as a whole and the added cost would have been better absorbed in the big/expensive SUV. The one fatal issue though is most of the folks buying these do not care about fuel economy (beyond the wallet hit when gas prices spike) and would not pay anything for such a system.

 

Feel free to add your insights. Like 'Stone Soup,' bring what you've got.

Bob Wilson

 

I just remember that Toyota has had some other developements that had various levels of success, but no mention ?? You are painting a picture that indicates that Toyota has somehow been 100% spot on with their efforts which I don't think is the case.

Comparing the HSD and the Voltec drivetrains seems appropriate. Or a Toyota diesel drivetrain with a GM diesel drivetrain, etc... but you line up one Toyota product, the Prius, and then contrast against a GM catalog.

Did the HSD, or Prius, have any predecessors at Toyota ?

 

I hear you, but that is exactly the issue with so many American's car buying decision. There are very few people who actually need all of the size and other features in the cars that they buy. Do people really need a 7 seater that is driven almost all of the time with 1 person in the car? How many pickups actually get used for hauling/towing all that often?

To take the 4x8 plywood example - for $20 you can rent a pickup for 90 minutes from Home Depot or Lowes. By driving a Prius you save more than $20 in gas in a single fill-up compared to driving an SUV or pickup so to me it is a no brainer. Yes, I do feel a bit cheated when I only need 4 sheets of drywall and still have to pay the full price for the rental, but I know that I'm coming out way ahead in the long run.

So I have to ask - just how often do you haul large loads?

 

john, do you work for gm?

 

Looking for the study but it is remarkably high. The perecent of trucks that are not used as "trucks" was something like 12%. A few years ago I tried to persuade ZipCar to add trucks to their fleet.

 

I haven't done the math for other vehicles but the roll-down coefficients needed to calculate the power needed is an attachment in this post:
Consumer Reports MPG Result For 2013 Fusion & C-Max Hybrids! | Page 9 | PriusChat

There are three coefficients each manufacturer reports to the USA EPA from 'roll down tests' that can be used in a standard formula to calculate the power needed to overcome drag at any given speed. Regardless of the driveline, this drag power has to be generated.

If you know the fuel burn per HP, it is fairly easy to make an MPG vs mph chart. For electric drive, ~745 W ~= 1 HP. Enjoy!

Bob Wilson

 

no. why ?

 

just seems they should be paying you, if they aren't.

 

not sure why they would do that. I have 4 Toyotas/Lexus and 1 GM.

oh ... I forgot the 240Z project car .

Does Toyota pay some members here to advocate?