Will the EV survive in America?

Tesla offering free charging to its 85kW buyers and a one time $2k charge to its 60kW buyers is very different than GM or Toyota offering free charging.
Tesla will be selling 20,000 a year and not all will be using the superchargers. And some of those will be paying to do so.
GM and Toyota are shooting for sales numbers much higher than that. Although both GM and Toyota missed their first year sales targets, long term I expect both to be selling many more than 20k a year. GM is already a little above that.

I could see some car dealers doing this on their own however. Great bit of marketing, and would draw some interest, and therefore traffic, to their dealership.

 

Personally, free or not, I think it's ridiculous that the vast majority of Toyota dealerships don't have any chargers at all, public or not. Really have to give Nissan the kudos on this (though, a fair number of their chargers become inaccessible after the dealership closes).

 

I honestly think it's not so much a question of "survival" as it is a question of evolution. Right now, Electric vehicles struggle because the majority of the vehicle driving world is still ICE based.

Things are changing, but the big picture is still fossil fuel and ICE based.

I think potentially the future favors Electric vehicles. Once mainstreamed they should be able to be produced near the cost of similar ICE vehicles. A battery, and electric motor is in many ways simpler than an internal combustion engine.

But it's going to take time and the evolution and improvement of the product.

If you believe fossil fuels are a finite resource, and I don't know why anyone wouldn't, then we are inevitably on a path that MUST lead to alternatives.

I'm sure there will be surprises and unexpected happenings along the way. I can't predict the timeline. And many of the comments about specific challenges brought up in this thread are 100% valid.

However IMO the question isn't so much "Will The EV survive in America?" so much as it will become "Will America survive the decline of inefficient ICE vehicles?".

 

What is clearly over looked with "smart utilities" is a subject that really needs to be addressed: beefing up the current system. Having smarter utilities does not mean anything, if there is not a redundant system(s) in place. Look no further than Hurricane Katrina, superstorm Sandy for starters. ONLY when the existing system is made more resiliant, then, one can entertain "smart utilities". The biggest battle utilities face now: aging systems, increased usage, hacking, and terrorist attacks in this country. As more utilities become automated and linked to the 'net, the increase exposure to cyber attacks. Even to so called "smart utilities".

Just something to think of.

DBCassidy

 

I don't think need to focus on the EV platforms themselves. They know how to build good motors, chassis and good battery management systems. The problem is the batteries. Do searches on gasoline energy density versus batteries. That plus cost is part of the problem.

Going to a car show and comparing a FitEV, FocusEV, iMiEV, and to lesser extent, Leaf is almost laughable when you turn around and see gorgeous midsize sport sedans priced at 10 to $15,000 less and can drive them coast to coast without blinking, now.

Like another said ... patience. Lots of patience for breakthroughs in battery technology.

 

Have you seen the trunk space in the Civic natural gas car? It has 6, I repeat 6 cubit feet of space due to the massive tank required to carry the natural gas that is something like 3,600 psi of pressure. I saw the car yesterday and the trunk space was a joke. Google it for a picture.

 

"At the same time, the battery packs used in EVs are not only expensive — Ford CEO Alan Mulally was recently quoted at pricing a 23-kilowatt-hour battery pack for pure electrics at "around $12,000 to $15,000" — but their performance degrades over time. Whereas a gas- or diesel-powered vehicle will continue to perform as advertised with regular care and maintenance, a Nissan Leaf could be running at just 80 percent of its original capacity after five years, and a mere 70 percent after a decade — and that's by Mitsubishi's own estimates. That's a hard pill to swallow when you're shelling out $35K for a bug-eyed hatchback."

Let's see how the Nissan Leaf sells this year.

 

Electric Vehicle Battery Tech 2011:Global Cost Reduction Initiative

These people would know a thing or two about EV and battery technology.

 

Keep in mind that's referring to the very limited # of Superchargers (I see 8 at Supercharger | Tesla Motors) and the 85 kwh model is starts at almost $80K. The 60 kwh model including $2K for Supercharging is almost $72K. Both those numbers are before tax, title, license and destination charge.

I've heard stories on MNL about Leafers being given a hard time or denied charging access at certain dealers if they didn't buy a Leaf from that dealer. It's a case of YMMV when it comes to that dealer's policy.

I made my predictions at My Nissan Leaf Forum • View topic - Your predictions for the US Plugins in 2013.

I found out today from a Nissan exec that we'll be hearing '13 Leaf prices on Monday.

 

The most exciting thing going on now in the BEV world is the Tesla Model S.

I think most of the $35k ish all electrics like Fit, Focus are mostly ZEV mandate compliance cars that will sell in the couple thousand a year range.

 

You mean it starts at $59,900... Not everybody can take advantage of the $7500 tax credit.

 

Everyone can take advantage of the tax credit, some may have to do it indirectly through a lease though.

 

The 40kWh Model S does not have a supercharging option and the EPA range might end up something like 140 ish miles. Something to think about. 160 miles is best case cruising at 50 mpg on flat road IIRC.

 

This was exactly my point. Someone said others should do this. My point was that it is far easier for Tesla to do this with their business model than for others.

 

Of course, all cars have important aspects that should be thought about when considering a purchase. We may be getting a 40kW model S as our second car in a year or so. The 35-40 mile electric range we currently have just doesn't cut it. A 135-140 EPA range would work great for us as a second vehicle.