Sales trend: Sept to Current, 2012

Thats no different than Ford Energi, only certain specially trained and equipped dealers can order and sell them.

 

Same is true for the Volt. GM also went with a slower rollout during the first year to be cautious. The volt, because GM had nothing like it, had more training issues. I was just offering a reason to do a more limited initial rollout. If they don't want to sell many they could do like the FFE and say its formally available anywhere, if your dealer is quallified and will order it for you, but actually not promote it or put it in dealers because very few were qualified. Toyota/GM pushed more dealers into the training/sales in the rollout states. Two different models, either can work to manage costs when sales will be low.

 

"Sales of the Chevy Volt checked in at a healthy 2,633 units in December 2012...

In terms of 2012 year-to-date numbers, the tally for the Nissan LEAF is 9,819 units. That's incredibly close (+ 1.5 percent) to 2011's results, when sales of the LEAF totaled 9,674 units. Meanwhile, the 2012 YTD results for the Chevy Volt ring in at a remarkable 23,461 units.

Just in case you were wondering, the Chevy Volt is now officially the U.S.'s top-selling plug-in vehicle for 2012. In the number two spot is not the Nissan LEAF, but rather the Toyota Prius Plug-In Hybrid with 12,750 sold."

Chevy Volt Sales Sizzling Once More, Nissan LEAF Stays Steady | PluginCars.com

 

I asked this question "The goal of Volt technology is to replace their traditional propulsion system, right?" and got that as a response. Then you went on about me somehow wanting overnight success, despite the fact that I've stated "by the time the tax-credit expires" countless times.

Whatever. I'm not wasting effort on pointless discussions. We all know traditional propulsion systems must be replaced.

2,082,504 was the grand total for Toyota sales in the United States for 2012. Of those, there were 327,413 purchases. That's 15.7% now being hybrid, undeniable evidence that Toyota is striving to replace. We see Ford aiming in the same direction, introducing C-Max, C-Max Energi, and Fusion Energi.

By the time the tax-credit expires, the market for Volt must be well established and cost reduced significantly. Otherwise, it will lose sales to GM's own inventory of traditional vehicles or lose customers entirely. That's market reality. There's nothing to question. The clock is ticking.

 

I would still disagree that is the goal. And adding by-the-time the tax credit expires does not change that. Since the tax credit expires after 200K vehicles per manufacturer, that cannot being to be a serious replacement of traditional propulsion systems.. as that is under 10% of the per year sales of GM which last year were 2,595,717. And the tax credit takes years to reach. The goal is development, deployment and market validation of technology that will eventually have a major impact on their propulsion systems... in future decades. One does not turn a high-purchase price market that fast.

Even your statement about Toyota, at 15%, I don't think show it is indicative of "their goal". Rather it shows the slow shift in the market to accept hybrid technology. Its been 15 years for Toyota to reach a non-trivial level, yet that is not even as many vehicles as ford sold F150s.

If Toyota really wanted to replace, they would stop selling ICE cars.. they have proven the Prius HSD is a good drvie train. Or they could up the price on ICE cars and invert the "premium", but they don't even do that. Toyota's goal is very clearly just to sell cars, and they have identified hybrids as a viable submarket where they can sell well.

If one want to rate hybrids on have they replaced traditional propulsion systems, the answer would be "not really". After 15 years on the market they have not yet gained 4% market share. If that is the defined goal for current (4th) generation of hybrids, they are failing.

That does not mean I don't think we should be bashing them, but just need to make sure the "goals" and measurements for success are focused on the right things.

Sorry to inform you, but I doubt that even a significant majority of the people "know" that..

The 15.7% is proof on only one thing.. Toyota has developed good following within its buyers for its hybrids. It does not show what that they are trying to replace.. in fact it shows just the opposite.. they are not willing to adjust prices to make it the majority of their sales... so replacing is not their goal.. profits are.

There is nothing to "question", your understanding of "market reality" is very clearly flawed.
Your incorrect logic on how sales work and related to incentives could easily, and probably was, applied to early hybrid sales. People would say If toyota charged a premium over regular cars no-one would buy them after the incentives went way. Clearly proven wrong by history. People pay for what they want, and if they want to reduce gas usage, if they want a nice ride, ... they buy a car that matches their desires. By your logic no BMWs would ever be sold and the hybrid market would have died long ago.

The incentives help get initial sales, which helps build the market and allows there to be a base on which to measure reliability, real-world efficiency and other very important parameters that people use in buying decisions. Mostly incentives help convince the manufactures to take risks on new product directions.

 

The approach with Prius PHV takes that in account. The modest-size pack costs less than those other automakers use.

That's an undeniable fact, whether you have to replace or not.

 

That's what replacing traditional vehicle production accomplishes. Done.

As for the speed part, the contradiction speaks for itself. So, the only thing I'm going to do is (again) point out that the tax-credit expires based two factors, quantity or time... whichever comes first.

 

I have no idea what you mean by the first means. What is "that's" referring to in your statement?

There is no contradiction, except in warped minds that pretend the goal is something its not, then see a contradiction that is not real and refuse to recognize the problem is them inventing the wrong goal


You've provided no, zero, nada, decimation to support your assertion that the "Goal" is to replace traditional vehicle production. Not for GM, not for Toyota.

A goal of research and development is very different than a goal of replacement. A goal of selling what the market will buy, is very different than a goal of replacement. When you look at the wrong goals, you are doomed to see failure. You want to use sales as a measure of success because that is related to replacement. Then with your statement of their goals, Toyota has failed.. in 15 years they have only moved the hybrid market to 3% yearly replacement level.

 

Not actually reading what I post...

15.7% of their production in this market. Much higher percent in Japan, where Prius has been the top-seller for a very long time.

Done.

 

I'm not sure why there is the need to make stuff up. Here are the stats

Hybrid / Electric Vehicle Statistics | Statistic Brain

Hybrid penetration - that is the percent of hybrids to other vehicles is very low in most of the world. In the US it is less than 2%, and less than 4% of new car sales. As you can see in the above link, the US has more hybrids than any other country.

If the hybrid goal was to replace the fleet in a 20 year period with hybrids, I would say its an absolute failure, given the last 10 years of sales. Of course no where have I seen this as the goal except for some very vocal enthusiasts. Now in Japan there are a great deal more tax incentives that have hybrids as a larger percentage of the market, but walk around and you notice lots of hybrids, but many, many more non-hybrids. If the Japanese government would out law ice vehicles, then I'm sure you would get that goal, I do not however think that is the governments wish. The aqua appears to be the best selling car though, and about 20% of new are sales were hybrids this year. Given vmt is much lower in Japan, and hybrid penetration is higher, gasoline use per capita is lower Hybrid cars are certainly past the initial adopter phase, but growth is much slower than many enthusiasts want.

We are at the initial adopter phase of plug-ins, and in year 2, in the US alone there were about 50,000 vehicles sold in 2012. I expect this to grow by at least 60% in calendar 2013, vastly outpacing when hybrids were initial adopter cars.

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

I think John is confusing his desire with Toyota's goal.
I agree with his desire to replace traditional vehicles.
But neither Toyota, GM, Nissan, nor any other company is acting as if their goal is to replace traditional vehicles with the possible exception of Tesla.

 

I read what you posted.. 15% is just their production. If they have replacement as their goal, they failed. They have many things they could do to improve the "replacement rate" if that was their goal, e.g. increasing the price of the ICE vehichles would easily increase the replacement rate, or discontinuing them all togehter. So their actions make it clear that replacement is not "Their goal". It might be a contributing factor, but mroe likely they are just developing what the market wants.. and yes the Japan market buys more prius.. but not really because its toyota's goal, but the because its markets demand.

 

Replacement argument is pointless. You can not replace anything until people start buying them in big numbers, and you can not sell in big numbers when people still have misconceptions.

 

Electrified cars as replacement, no, but as an alternative or 'advanced' vehicle, yes.

Fuel Economy > advanced vehicles and fuels

Prius family made #13 in total sales of 265 vehicles for 2012 in the country that burns the most gasoline. The family is not perfect, but has arguably the best 'green balance' to date.

Many people don't understand Prius; they think it needs to be plugged in. Many don't care too much, they just know it's a little small, more expensive than other cars its size and looks a little dorky.

 

They can spin all they want, it doesn't change the reality that Toyota stated a quantity milestone along with their long-term goal.

It was to be producing hybrids at a rate of 1,000,000 annually by the end of 2012. And guess what, they are closing in on that despite the recalls, tsumani, and greenwashing efforts.

 

I like C-Max hybrid and Prius c for a couple reasons -

C-Max hybrid has no gas-only equivalent. It looks more 'normal' inside and out. Part of me doesn't really care if its 47 MPG is overblown if it gets more people to buy it and they aren't to PO'd about it.

Prius c - no gas only equivalent, low price and apparently a little more fun to sling around corners.

 

Is that 1 million globally, toyota and lexus? I understand US consumers buy a little over 15 million new cars per year, about 15.3 million.

 

Off topic, but ... 37% commute by bicycle in Copenhagen Denmark, even in Winter. youtube it. That's green. Not a poor country either.

 

Absolutely. There is the perception that the hybrid premium is more than it is, and that they have limited top speed. I have had 3 people ask how often I need to plug it in. Hybrid penetration is very small in this country, and even smaller in most of the world. I would say they are now selling in large enough numbers in the US and Japan that they are past initial adopter phase, but price premium versus gas costs are not large enough to get a larger market share in the US. In Japan, both gas tax, and car taxes make them an easier sell, as well as different driving habits.

For plug-in cars we are just at that sliver of sales and initial cars. Flagships like the tesla S and porsche 918 do get more of the word out in the car magazines though. In about 4 years we will be at the phase in plug-ins where sales can greatly increase, but we will have to wait and see what the price/performance of the next gen cars are.

I don't think he had any spinning going on at all. Did Toyota ever have the goal to replace all ice cars with hybrids? I mean they have ices in them. If they did, they would not be making the tundra and tacoma, vensa, siena, they even make monstrosity class SUVs. The Japanese governments goal was to drastically reduce gasoline consumption. That goal has not been met. To really make a crack at gasoline use, if you are going through the expense of an hybrid, why not add a bigger battery and plug it in. I expect that the next gen prius phv will have an even bigger battery, and will grab more market share as well as saving more gas.

When you make up fake goals, we are going to call you on it. Toyota has a great acheivement in the prius, but it has a very low penetration.

 

It may take a little more time and education, but hybrids, Volt, PIP, Leaf sales will continue to increase as people see them all over the place and get comfortable with the idea.

Hybrid Sales in Canada Represent 8.5 Percent For Toyota, 19.1 Percent For Lexus - HybridCars.com