Sales trend: Sept to Current, 2012

I agree about skepticism of cost of battery replacement in hybrids, etc... my family also questions that. I say 'Toyota's current part/labor cost is about $3,500 and Luscious Garage is $3k. I can save about $50 / month in gas over a 1.8L Matrix (12kmi, 50 vs 30 mpg @ $4.10 avg) to have $6k in 10 years to buy two new hybrid batteries'.

For the battery / landfill scare tactic, Google 'Prius life cycle' video.

 

So far as I can tell, the only reason the question of Volt success has been pushed to G2 is because G1 is a bust.

Perhaps a better question is for how many generations GM will keep Volt alive at the present unprofitability scale. I imagine the first major hint will be a constriction of R&D.

 

I like that logic but people rarely save and budget for battery replacement. It is a good idea but usually other things take priority with that $, saving for avacation, house, college for the kids, nice rims, etc etc etc .

I only bring it up because my Brother in Law visited this holiday and I took him for a ride in the Prius. He does not know Prius from atom. His vision is that it's an expensive problem waiting to happen. I said sure but clean air, low cost of ownership, 50 MPG, comfort, etc. He was stuck on the battery. If Toyota offered a lower cost replacement battery perhaps it's not as good as the original but it gets the job done it may relieve the anxiety and propel sales. Maybe there is some insurance policy on battery replacement.

 

Pitch the idea to this forum.

E.g, if the battery failure rate is 1% between 150k and 200k miles and replacement is $3k, then warranty cost before PC profit is $30/insured.

 

That's good too - you can save enough on gas to take a nice vacation, etc...

I'd like to see what's happening with Prius battery replacements. Ought to be discussed on PC, and not just 'go to junkyard or balance the cells yourself'.

 

Today if the Battery goes belly up and your outside of warranty you have 3 choices.
1) Buy a New Battery Replacement from the dealer. Expensive can be north of 3K + Labor
2) By a rebuilt from a firm in NC that does a good job. $2K + Labor.
3) Buy a salvage for about $500 + Labor.
4) Sell the car and move on.

Option 2 seems safer than option 3 and less expenive than 1. Salvage may be a gamble and many say if the battery is older and in the junk yard how good can it be i.e. it may be at the end of it's life.. There is the gamble.

 

Option 3, not a good way to go. Nimh batteries slowing lose capacity if they sit unused for any length of time, and will lose top end capacity the longer they sit unused. They last longer the more they are used. I have some brand new 2 year old cells that sat unused with storage charge on them for my Glow motor starter. I cycled them a dozen times and can only get a couple spins on my starter motor with them before they are gone. I have some others that are used constantly and are at least 5-6 years old and still have at least 95% of their original capacity left in them.

So for option 3, I would avoid it unless you have multiple packs to choose from. Reman packs would be the best choice, its how automotive parts have been done for decades, less expensive to replace a worn out alternator with a rebuilt one than a brand new one, should be the same for the battery packs.

 

R&D has continued. We'll see the launch of the first Voltec platform spinoff, the ELR in a few weeks. They could have pulled the plug on that at any time.. that they are still pushing forward. I don't think the offical launch of a second variant is a sign of backing off.

Success of an innovation is measured on multiple dimensions with different criterion at different stages. For a first gen product it is measured by its quality, customer satisfaction, experts review and maybe engineering effectiveness. By those dimensions the volt has been a rousing success.

Large scale sales may have been hoped for by some but is somewhat unrealistic at the price point and product immaturity. If GM had pushed on marketing and incentives they might have been able to get to double the current sales level but may have lost more money. The high initial numbers could also just be part of the GM marketing hype, with no strong internal expectations. We don't know how they measure its return, e.g. its halo effect, so they may not have to reach high sales to keep it going. They clearly don't on the corvettee. And even if they want to push it to larger sales, they look out at the competition that materialized they may be waiting so as to not burn through the 200,000 credits too fast while others are still playing catchup. They can manage slow growth, build a reputation of quality and performance then decontent a bit in 2014 and ramp up sales after the ELR shares the halo. Or they could be just maximizing profits keeping the factory busy with other more profitable product keeping enough volts to keep the halo intact and grow the reputation while focus on preping for Gen2.

 

FWIW my local Chevy Dealer ALWAYS has 6-8 Volts sitting in front of their showroom, on a busy avenue. Here in Metro Detroit, Volts are EVERYWHERE. Heck, theres 3 in my subdivision alone.

 

Very good point! I just read this: December 2012 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

 

Waiting for spring to stir sales is going this particular winter really looooong. But it's rather pointless expanding rollout to the northern states until then. We saw the same limited demand with the regular Prius. So, it's no surprise here that only a single dealer in my metro area (Twin Cities, Minnesota) currently carrying the plug-in. And that inventory is just an over supply of 2012 models.

In the meantime, the 1,361 purchased in December elsewhere is helping add to the total for the first year... which still has 2 months left.

 

The question really is about how many prius phvs would have sold in Texas and Florida, if Toyota was not keeping the car out of the market.

I can't see why spring wiould be better for these top 5 plug in states.

 

Initial PHV rollout states:

California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Virginia, and Hawaii

 

John, which dealer??

 

Walser in Bloomington... more info

 

PIP still not available in Florida!IP
BY THE NUMBERS, December 2012 - New Year's Rockin' Eve Edition!
December 2012 - New Year's Rockin' Eve Edition

 

WHY isnt the PIP available in all states yet!?

 

Toyota rolled out 3 new models of Prius over the past year, to 2 major markets. Faster could have actually be counter-productive. What would the benefit have been from pushing it?

 

I don't have any special information, but I would guess it is is probably because they don't want to sell too many as they claim they are not as profitable. A PiP requires special equipment and training for the dealers and so they want a limited distribution if they are not going to sell a lot of them.

Toyota announced a limited rollout and only plans to sell 15000 during its first 12 months (which is about where they will be in march).
(see Toyota Plug-in Prius priced at $32,000* and Prius V from $26,400*) I don't really any articles about when they will spread nationwide or increase their goals beyond 1500 or so a month.