Sales trend: Sept to Current, 2012

That is formally what they do with corvette as well.. but they have 40% more corvettes in stock(5392 vs 3847) even though the volt is selling 60% more cars (20000 through nov vs 12000 through Nov), so there is likely more to it. Matching stock to demand should still have 1-2 cars for test drives and 1-2 cars for sale at a each dealer -- which would have stock above 5000.

Given the plant can also produce malibus and now implala is may be good business for the them to match production with profitability. They could be choosing to limit Volt production only produce enough to match pre-sold cars (which one might argue is one way to measure demand.) But many people don't pre-plan purchases and don't like to wait 6-8 weeks (If you ordered a Volt on Dec 1, delivery was quoted as February). The shortage could help them sell more Cruzes, Malibus or other's which may have greater per-car profit.

@ John1701a.. I have no problem with defining 5K/month as a good number for high-volume sales.. But its also unrealistic to expect new tech to grow that fast.. the volt will sell more in its second year than did the original Prius.. It takes a while for a new tech to be accepted.

 

John, thank you for your idea for what makes a model "mainstream".
You mention two factors though, number of sales and profitability.
I don't think the two are always connected.
For example, I am guessing that the Rolls Royce is very profitable, yet I would not call it mainstream.
The Tesla Model S is estimated to be giving Tesla a 25% profit margin once full production has been reached (if it hasn't already). That will be about 1600 cars a month, far below your 5000 number. It will be profitable, yet probably not 'mainstream'.

I liked the mention of 'when I see one or two a week'. The only issue there is, it is very localized, and less noticeable cars may still be mainstream even if someone doesn't notice them.

What do you, and others, think of this idea:
A vehicle is 'mainstream' when it represents at least .1% of vehicles on the road?
That would be about 300,000 vehicles on the road. Or perhaps that number should be .2% or .05%?

This would of course still leave out many low number vehicles, but as long as people understand that 'mainstream' is simply a matter of numbers.

 

This isn't rocket science and we will not allow semantics to distract from the goal.

MALIBU and CRUZE are core products for GM. The goal of Volt technology is to replace their traditional propulsion system, right?

That's the measure. Those are the numbers. Progress is based upon that.

 

Wrong...

Where do you off saying that is the goal? I don't think I've ever seen that as a stated goal of GM. If innovation is measured by such silly goals. it would never happen.

If I had to hazard a guess I say the goal of the Volt is to develop and validate new technology will eventually replace the traditional propulsion system -- in a decade or two.

Heck hybrids, which have been on the market for 15 years, have only reached 3%.. they have not replaced the traditional propulsion system yet.
And it took a nearly decade before they were anything other than a niche.

Companies invest in R&D, often along multiple dimensions to reduce their risks. The Volt may just be a stepping stone to eventual major BEV or maybe it will be EREV, with battery + fuel-cell or battery + CNG or...

No measure or number was stated?
That's not progress.

 

Wow drinnovation, I don't get how John can be "Wrong..." with "The goal of Volt technology is to replace their traditional propulsion system, right?" when you are saying the same thing in my opinion with "If I had to hazard a guess I say the goal of the Volt is to develop and validate new technology will eventually replace the traditional propulsion system -- in a decade or two."

When John didn't put a time line for when the replacement would take place, I take it to mean in the future. Did you think he meant overnight? By adding the time expectation of in a decade or two, does it really make it more right?

I think John's measure or numbers were that of the core MALIBU and CRUZE products for GM. It makes sense that any trend towards those numbers shows progress towards replacing the ICE only propulsion systems.

I always enjoy your input to the disscussions drinnovation, but this one just doesn't seem logical.

 

A niche market is a focused, targetable portion of a market.
By definition, then, a business that focuses on a niche market is addressing a need for a product or service that is not being addressed by mainstream providers. You can think of a niche market as a narrowly defined group of potential customers.
1.) Model S base price, 40Kwh, 160 mile range starts at $52K, then add options, could get well over $60K.

2.) Unproven track record

3.) limited areas that it can be driven, need to make sure you can make it to the next charging station, and account for the travel time lost while recharging.

4.) Limited dealerships, if you need to have it serviced, and are no where near a dealership, not many mechanics will touch the car.

5.) Not a car the average person would consider buying, you really have to want a fully EV car to spend that kind of money on it, especially one with no history of reliability.

I am sure there are a few more facts that can be added, but the 5 I put above are what makes it a Niche market vehicle.

 

Nearly half of which was carried by Prius.

----

See how alternative vehicles compare against all others (US charts below), not just against other alternative vehicles.

November 2012 YTD - Top 265 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

Prius family #13 of all 265 vehicle (families) for 2012 as of November. And it's a hybrid-only family

Volt a 239% increase from CYTD Nov '11 !


Top 40 or about 120k per year / 10k units month (US) is a good list to be on

 

Let's say 5. Now what is the goal of 5? Confused? You should be what I typed made no sense, but that is pretty much more understandable than the goal makes no sense. Whose goal, and at what percent at what time in the future?

I have no clue, but he does want to judge volt success based on this year sales alone. Numerous times he has rejected the idea that we need to wait for second generation to see large sales. You may have an idea why this is a good or bad idea.

The trend line for the volt, and again we only have 25 months is strong growth. Year over year there is over a 200% growth rate, so if you are going to look at trends you would praise the sales. Now given the slow sales in 2011, we can not expect growth to stay at this high level otherwise the volt would soon be the most popular car. I would expect growth to be much less than 100% this year.


Is the volt about to replace ice only propultion in the near term. Its almost definitely not. Its an initial adopter car like the other plug-ins. People need to see these on the streets before the big sales happen. I expect more plug-ins to sell than traditional hybrids by 2020, but that is my projection. Hybrids and plug-ins will still be less than 10% of the new car market then. With under 3.5% market share, hybrids plus plug-ins are a long way from replacing traditional ice only vehicles.

 

dupe post

 

The Tesla Model S is on a tear up up and away.

 

John said the goal of the Volt was "to replace".. which as I said is wrong.
GM is not ready to replace their traditional vehicles with Volts.
The market is not ready to replace traditional with hybrids let alone EREVs.

Note I said the goal of the volt "is to develop and validate new technology "

The difference is very important. If the goal is replacing something, the measuring sales compared to the vehicles to be replace might make sense. If the goal is develop/validate new technology, then
sales comparison with popular models is a poor measure of progress.

I think John meant overnight because he wants to use sales comparisons. In a broader reading over may posts, his goals seems to be able to declare GM in general and the Volt in particular, a failure. His arguments consistently try to apply metrics of instant success to the Volt, while having a different standard for the Plug-in-Prius and forgetting all the argument he made when people said similar silly arguments about the original Prius.


Innovation, especially disruptive innovations, have a relatively classic cycle of launch and acceptance. Expecting them to be overnight successes is nieve.

From a sales view, the Volt has sold 20820 by end Nov while
all other PHEV+BEVs combined, sold only 45503. So while the Volt sales are not where I might hope they would be, they are still 45% of the plug in market, and 5% of the overall Hybrid market. But rather than looking in context, John wants to compare them to Cruze and Malibu, which together sold more than all hybrids combined.

 

I think Chevy Silverado might equal Malibu + Cruze sales.

I don't think Volt goal was to replace ICE in any near term, but to offer a good alternative whose sales increase. 239% Volt sales increase from '11 to '12 is good, but this year will be 'more telling'.

 

It's good for alternative (more efficient) vehicles to compete with each other, but even better for them to compete against conventional (less efficient) vehicles.

November 2012 YTD - Top 265 Best-Selling Vehicles In America - Every Vehicle Ranked - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

 

Your definition is relying on more undefined terms. Just how "narrow"? Pick up trucks are designed to allow you to haul very heavy loads. Most people don't need that, so is a Ford F-150 a niche vehicle? Or is it mainstream because even though its main purpose is to haul stuff, they target a more mainstream market?

So are you saying that anything over 50% above the average price of a vehicle makes it a 'niche' vehicle?

New is niche? How long until it is 'proven'? Apple iPhones came out 3rd quarter of 2007, in 4th quarter 2008 they sold over 6-7 million of them. We're those still niche?

All vehicles are limited to where they can drive and need to be able to fuel. The question is do the limitations cause hardship to so much of the market that the product can't be used by most.

No dealerships, which I consider a plus. I have never found a mechanic that refused to work on the car. Although I haven't had need to very often. I have had brake, tire and alignment work done on Tesla vehicles at third party mechanics. They loved getting a look at it

I know a number of average people that have bought, or have reserved the Model S. Some of these don't care that it is an EV. The range meets their needs and the driving experience is far superior to the other vehicles they have experienced.
I do agree with you it is a young company with little history. And so yes, not everyone will be buying one. But will enough be doing so to bring the Model S from 'niche' to mainstream. This is why I am trying to figure out what the definition is of those two terms in your mind.

The comments you listed seem to be more opinion than facts.
This is why I think straight numbers are a far better definition as they can be measured and are less vulnerable to people stating opinions as facts;-)

 

We've already been through this in great detail. I have many times pointed out the reference to this generation and the intent of the next. Please stop with the implications.

Also, we all are well aware of the re-revised estimates for 2012 and the outcome. So, no need to continue to fluster over that anymore.

What are expectations for 2013 ?

 

High alternative vehicle sales important, but miles driven for all vehicles and resources per mile (gallons, kWh, ..) more important

 

2013? guess..

Model S - 18k units worldwide
Leaf - 15k US
Volt - 26k US
PiP - 28k US
Energi - 18k US
Accord Plug-in - 6k US

Coda, iMiEV, FitEV, FocusEV, ... maybe 1k each for year.

 

My projections are a little different then yours, but I agree with the continued good growth in the plug in market.

 

When you speak with people in the street perhaps the biggest obsticle in migrating from the traditional car to the EV in all it's versions (Hybrid, EV) is fear. For many they say those batteries can be thousands to replace. I think Toyota did a great job with the 10 year 150K warranty in CARB states however lowering the cost of replacement batteries can go a long way. Maybe it is low cost Sulfur batteries. The second thing that will seal the deal is for the Fed to lower or eliminate the Oil company Tax subsidy. That is why gas is so cheap in America and so expensive in Europe. Once that is gone and gas at the pump is 2x what it is today people will purchase high MPG cars and companies who develop this technology and sell it will be successful. Grant it the economy will take a beating so it may have to be gradual and proper warning will need to be made so consumers can adjust. I know there is an army of drivers in America with older cars who cannot afford or choose not to purchase new fuel efficient cars. I know the Fed pushing manufactures to create fuel efficient cars helps but high fuel costs will migrate consumers at some point in the process. Grant it there will be those who will drive there SUV's to there death but at some point they will get a EV SUV if and when it is created.

 

My first guess is that the distribution of Volt sales across the dealership landscape is concentrated. Dealerships that have never sold a Volt are probably not inclined to pay for four of them.