Sales trend: Sept to Current, 2012

The numbers are actually still a bit off.
Tesla sold 10 cars in June. The next official numbers are that a total of 253 were sold by the end of September.
We don't have official 4th quarter numbers yet (end of December). Tesla last estimated sales for all of 2012 to be 2500-3000. People in the last week of December were getting VIN numbers in the 2500-3000 range (some above that, some below) so I suspect the came in right in that range.
They are ramping up their production line and are probably at full speed now, which is 400/week. So yes, availability has been the bottleneck.

 

Heard that. Tesla Motors is amazing. I think more than a few journalists are salivating over Model S. It's gorgeous and the performance is OTH. But, to be devils advocate, I hope Tesla has a place to stop and go inside air-conditioned cafe at supercharging station between LA and Vegas.

Motor Trend WOT w/ cute blond drove Model S LA to Vegas in Sept in 85kwh (they used A/C towards end to make sure made it w/o recharge. Didn't say how they recharged after getting there.

I'm kinda bummed about Leaf sales of only 10k units this year. Supply prob? Still too expensive? I see some ads listing $8k off MSRP. They having to sell some at a loss?


I guess mainstream might be a car I see at least one of every day or two in SF Bay Area.

I'm off topic.

 

There's now a supercharger in Barstow so there's no need to baby it.

The leaf discounts are on lease only, because Nissan ends up claiming the IRS rebate. I think they aren't selling that well because a 100-mile range with limited fast charge options is something that's not appealing to a lot of people. No real mystery there. The Tesla can do LA to SF with one or two half-hour stops for charging. The Leaf? God knows.

 

When people have a nice car like Leaf, maybe they still want to get out and go far sometimes. Need to cruise 70 mph ish on highway. Have to stop within every hour w/ Leaf for QC. three hours on highway doable in 85kwh Model S.

At 400 off the line per week, Model S could become the top selling all electric in US 2013. pics of supercharge stations -
tesla supercharger barstow - Google Search

All that said, alt vehicle costs need to cool over the years and battery replacement costs need to be 'affordable'. Bothers me to hear people say - go to junkyard to get hybrid battery for your Prius. I plan on getting a new one from Toyota if the time comes.

 

Anyone guess why Pri liftback sales have tumbled since summertime?

10 to 13k range / mo. June to Sept, 8k range for two months now.

 

In a world that was ideal for Toyota, the Prius PHV, Prius v, and Prius c (especially the c) would not cannibalize any sales from the liftback. This is not that world.

 

Seasonal changes? Isn't summer prime buying season? Think Memorial Day, Independence Day, Labor Day sales. Nothing similar in the fall and some people prefer to wait for 2013 vehicles.

 

Is C-Max hybrid taking mostly from Prius liftback sales and a little bit from Prius v?

Good points, also lensovet, plus people are focused buying gifts and travelling.

 

Yes, the pricing of the 4 platforms offered consign it to the niche markets. No doubt there. Review of Edmunds take on the car brings up a good point: reliability. It is interesting technology and again, if production units sell, the price should start to drop (factors of production).

Time will tell.

DBCassidy

 

Prius is a 'niche' market car by some measures. So what is your definition of niche? What you say is meaningless without a definition.

 

5,000 per month has been the measure of mainstream minimum for over a decade in our market.

That's enough volume at which the vehicle tends to deliver business-sustaining profit, which is the point of producing it.

 

Can you provide a citation to that assertion. You seem to be making that up. By that standard less the 25% of the cars on the market meet the minimum. And the prius did not for its first 7 years.

 

Yeah - I'm sure the BMW M5 and every Porsche makes a profit.

But of course, those cars have history and they weren't reinventing the wheel. Tesla probably does need to make close to that number to make a profit and recapture the R&D. It probably did take 7 years for the Prius to be profitable so I see that it is probably a good ROT number for a totally new car.

Obviously a more expensive car does not need 5000 per month to be profitable so maybe the ROT should be something like $100 million in sales. So Tesla is right there at 1600/month with average cost around $70k.

 

I really do not know if 5000 is a magic number for 'mainstream' or sustainable profit, but worldwide sales strikes me as the number to look at.

 

GM decided to match production to demand, at least if you care to take their PR statements at face value.

 

Quoth Wikipedia on Porsche:

 

5,000 per month is quite realistic for a large automaker who compete in high-volume and depends upon those core vehicles for profit.

Those who don't have business intent to deliver a "common" vehicle obviously don't fit into the same category. Luxury & Sport offering are all part of that. There isn't an expectation for their numbers to ever be big.

It's the measure to indicate traditional replacement progress, the same ubiqituos vehicles that have been purchased at that rate for years.

 

Expectations are not really much of an argument; I thought we were discussing production numbers required to be a profitable line for the company.

In the Volt's case, the fans have retreated to a 'Halo' argument. Heck, for all I know it might be true.

 

Looking at the big picture, replacing everyday vehicles like Camry & Corolla, it's easy to see expectations as a major challenge. But in Japan, that has indeed become a reality. Here, there's obvious progress in that direction.

As for a vehicle like Volt, the current configuration doesn't even match that of middle-market purchase priorities. It's much more a car that people "ooh" & "ahh" about at autoshows which they say "they'd be nice" then wander over to Malibu or Cruze for actual shopping. When & How will that change?