Sales trend: Sept to Current, 2012

Wow... I didn't realize Toyota was doing THAT well :3 Good for them.

I guess it shouldn't be too much of a shock. I've been noticing so much Prius (Prii?) popping up all over Philadelphia, specifically very close to center city.

 

Small note, the 250 for Tesla should be in the September column and in was probably more like 200 (with 50 in July and August).

 

No problem. I figured it would cause issues as Tesla doesn't yet report monthly numbers, just quarterly.

I really appreciate the numbers Bob, it gives a very interesting perspective.
Any chance you have a longer term graph or spreadsheet? Three months is vastly better than one, likewise a year or even two I would think would be even more valuable?

 

The Audi A-3 at the bottom--I assume that's only the diesel--is being phased out. New generation A-3 diesel said to be coming for 2014, but the rumors have been all over the place as to when it will get here.

Saw two Gen III Prii in Freiburg recently, which still counts as news here.

 

Prius liftback was selling up well over 10k, 12k IIRC mid Summer. Seems lower gas prices or C-Max/Energi have taken a bite out of it. Tesla Model S accolades and deliveries have steered much attention their way.

Interesting times though. 5 years ago (?), we had only Prius, CamHy, HiHy, CivHy, TDI? ...

Now look, kaboom.

And yes, IMA sales stink, but Accord hybrids could right the ship.

 

Thank you Bob for posting the numbers. Prius C and Prius V numbers look encouraging!

Looking forward to Dec. numbers on Friday.

DBCassidy

 

WOW! The Volt sales slid approx 49% compared to Nov. numbers. Hopefully Dec. numbers show a positive increase.

DBCassidy

 

Volt should make 22k units for the year. Leaf will be lucky to make 10k unit sales for year; it was down around 500 per month all Summer long. Not sure why, supply problems, price?

 

Whatever the reason, all new technologies must find a way to become profitable. If they don't, they are abandoned. Two-Mode struggled for years. eAssist is stumbling now. What will the approach be with Volt, especially as Ford & Toyota plug-in rollouts ramp up?

 

... Ford & Toyota .. and Honda (I think Honda will be able to stay in hybrid/plugin market ultimately). Volt owner's sure seem to like their cars.

Questions remain for Tesla - will reservations keep coming in after the early adopters have their cars, when will they make a profit (I don't think they have since inception), will a big dog, GM, VW copy them in x years. Whatever happens, they are doing it full out for now. Tesla Model S, Motor Trend COTY.

Time will tell ....

 

The volt dip for Nov was largely supply because of the plant shutdown (parts of Oct & Nov) to retool the plant for Impala production and start increase its production of the 2013 Malibu


Looking at the Volt "deliveries" over months is also illustrative
August 3693
September 2500
October 1206
November 1850


Volt inventory has not recovered since the shutdown with current inventory across the US at less than one volt per dealer. Hard to sell them when they are not there. For example cars.com shows US inventory is Malibu: 56900 Corvette: 5393 Volt: 3847. (Note cars.com often shows cars already sold, so tends to overestimate inventory). This despite the fact that the Volt is selling better than the Corvette.

With the plant producing Volts and Malibus the production is more cost effective but also limits total production (The plant can produce 5000 -5500 or so vehicles per month per shift (currently only 1 shift). In Nov they produce 60% Malibus, so the volt supply will likely be limited until GM adds another shift.

 

I remember back when I first got my 07 Pri, I never saw them on the road, and then slowly we started seeing a few, one here, one there. Now they are all over the place. Those are a lot of Pri sold the last few months. Very popular car.

 

It is, but Prius family is about 16k for Nov compared to 26k ish for big dogs like Camry, Accord family. Prius needs lots of revisions for next generation. It's amazing Prius family made 9th place for all cars Nov. considering it's a hatch/liftback. Most Americans prefer trunks on their sedans.

 

Tesla S: That's either quite a trend, or availability is ramping up.

 

The Tesla is definitely availability ramping up.

Just some numbers from that world. 17,000 reservations - currently running 100 new ones per day. If that pace keeps up, that ties Prius V numbers. Not bad considering the purchase price. And there is a little issue with not having very many dealers....

 

Not to be rude, but there is no guarantee of Tesla's future compared to a behemoth like Toyota. We have no idea if all electric car demand will continue to ramp up. Look at the Leaf. It's been a very ugly year. It will barely make 10k unit sales in US. It's no Model S for sure, but can any BEV begin to go mainstream?

 

Tesla is a Niche car, only a select few can afford one, and even fewer would want one.

 

Acdii, that comes across as a very negative statement. However, upon further thought, your statement, minus the word niche, is really true for every car.
There are far fewer people that want a Prius, than could afford it. Likewise for Tesla, BMW, Ford, Lotus or any other car maker. The statement really is meaningless. So I don't misunderstand you, could you rephrase it?

People commonly use the terms "mainstream" and "niche" to describe the market share of particular cars.
How are those defined?
Is a BMW x5 mainstream, niche, or something else?
How about a Buick LaCrosse?
Honda Civic?

Cycledrum, I don't think David said anything about Tesla's future success being guaranteed.
Tesla is a young new car company. An industry incredibly difficult to get a start in. They see to be executing their plan well and have successfully made it past a number of stages many said they would never survive.
As to your question, yes, I absolutely believe a BEV can go mainstream. However, I don't know when or which company will do it first. My answer may change though depending upon your definition of "mainstream".