Toyota plans to sell fuel cell car by 2015

How the vehicle is used, is part of it. The design of the vehicle is another part.

Example: You can drive both a SUV and a compact car to get 30 MPG. However, the design of the SUV will drag the MPG down when you average it up.

I think the way you are using/powering your Volt is a step forward from your previous Prius. You power it with renewable fuel. There are others that power with electricity generated from coal, natural gas or diesel. Since renewable represent single digit percentage of our grid, the average emission of Volt usage will be close to what EPA predicted, 260 g/mi.

I wouldn't say Model S with 260 miles range is limited. 89 MPGe for a large sports sedan is a better design than a compact 4 seater 60 MPGe plugin hybrid that also drives like an EV. I am looking at the whole package. I visualize a spider web (radar) chart with all different criterias -- like how tirerack compare different tries. In doing so, I also see FCVs with great potential.

 

Then you must believe that the toyota fuel cell vehicle is a bad design. Its a 4 seater like the volt, and it will get less MPGe than the tesla. Have you really looked at the whole package, you seem focused on some strange national grid scenario and want to apply that to all volt owners. You don't get to choose renewable power with a fcv, you have to fill up where ever you run out of hydrogen and there aren't many stations. Or is it a good design because you have more special hidden criteria.

 

I appreciate that very much USB. I have always heard you argue vehemently that powering a car on electricity was bad. And the Volt in particular. It was only once the PiP came out that I saw your position soften a bit.

There are some wonderful studies on the emmissions of GHG due to EV and PHEVs. I know you have seen some. Have you seen the parts that mention how much of the population lives in those regions? You give good data about geographical percentages for areas that emit X amount of GHG, but look at the percentage of population in each area.
And as others have mentioned, the data on the electrical grid you are using is 2-3 years out of date, at best.
As for regional impacts, keep in mind that the central part of the USA gets more of its oil from Canada which has a much higher GHG intensity.

But yes, how a vehicle is used plays a huge role in both its efficiency and desirability. I am very glad we can agree on that at least

 

Perhaps I came off that way but I am pretty fuel neutral. There are great and bad things about electricity, gasoline and hydrogen. I am not bias against any of them.

For average emission for electricity, I simply state what it is (with the data EPA uses and what's available). Most of my replies are toward the EV bias comments. That may make me look like I am against EV or electricity. In fact, I am neutral and appreciate the benefits of each fuel, especially when a combination bring out synergy.

Regarding the Volt sales figure in the clean electricity states, that is a good point and shows people do have sanity check. I guess we both can agree that Volt is not for those living in states with "dirty" electricity. That sure would limit the appeal. I often see Volt owners brag about running on electricity without the thought of the source of electricity -- then discriminate gasoline or hydrogen. Those are the things that I reply to. I don't reply back with the worse case electricity emission, just used the average fairly.

 

What can I say? You bought the wrong car.

Your ideal car would be one with Fit interior that can hide away the 16kWh battery pack (somewhere) and a gas engine that gets used rarely (taking up space under the hood).

 

But not everyone cares about the GHG emissions. In those cases the Volt wins on many areas.
And even to those that do consider GHG in 'dirtier' states, it gets cleaner every year the grid does.
To many, not sending money to terrorists, or not contributing to the national trade deficit, or having a more convenient to fuel car are more important.

As John likes to say, the end goal is to get as many high efficiency cars out there. Toyota made great strides forward with the Prius. But the Volt, Model S, Leaf and other cars both give efficiency people a choice and have appealing aspects the Prius can't match. This brings more people into the high efficiency market, hopefully allowing us to bust through the 3% market share we seem stuck at.

 

Yup, agree with the last paragraph.

**Warning - speaking average**
Per EPA, Volt will be powered by gasoline 34% of the miles but Prius PHV with 71%. In a car lifetime (150k miles), Volt would use 1,378 gallons of premium gas. Prius PHV would use 2,130 gallons of regular gas. The difference is 752 gallons. Refinery yield is lower for the premium gas is lower than the regular -- getting at the number of barrel to import.

Considering we are looking at a midsize and a compact, 752 gallon difference is justifiable. My point is, the difference is not as big as most Volt owners make it to be.

**/Warning**

I know some use more domestic electricity than others. The commute distance also play a major role in achieving EV to HV ratio. Generally, Volt has more potential to use more electricity (with longer EV range).

I think the main achievement of Prius PHV is that, you can displace more gasoline with domestic electricity yet it lowers the overall emission (over regular hybrid). Emission and using domestic fuel don't have to be a trade-off. Prius PHV shows you can have the cake and eat it too.

The achievement for FCV would be to completely displace foreign gasoline with domestic natural gas and yet lower the overall emission. The sticking point is, you are still using fossil fuel.

 

The epa backed off from guestimating mpge. Here are the numbers from voltstats.net

You'll note the average is 71.7% EV mode, but the median is a whopping 80.3% EV mode, some heavy gas users bring down the average. This is a self selected group, that cares about mileage. onstar compiles stats for everyone. I do not know what the prius phv is, but your calculation could be close to correct for the average of 55% more gas in a prius phv. That still is great and any phev will reduce gasoline usage.

+1

That seems to be what voltstats is saying.

The prius phv is great for some people that do a lot of long distance trips, the volt is great for people that can drive mainly electric. Both will consume less gasoline than a ice vehicle.

For FCV and short range BEVs, there is going to be some gasoline burnt in anouther vehicle. FCV simply can't outrun the infrastructure, so will need a vehicle following them with hydrogen for at least a decade. Instead of that FCV owners need to count the gasoline or diesel in the other vehicles they are traveling with. The high costs of the vehicles and lack of infrastructure will ensure its a very limited market for at least a decade. You don't displace much gasoline that way.

 

I know that was aimed at Zythryn, but I'm glad to see you finally comming around on relative ratios of sales in green energy states.. I've made that point many times (even with maps).

But I would not agree that "Volt is not for those in states with in "dirty" electricity "
In those states the Volt buyers can still purchase renewable and help clean up their grid as they drive their volt. Co is one of the worse in terms of GHG per kWh, but the more of us that buy renewable the better.

The "average" grid is a meaningful concept for someone that charges their car equally as often in every location in the country. For such a massively traveling salesman I would agree the PHV would be a better car than the Volt.


If one cares about GHG, the volt can be much better anywhere. If one does not care about GHG, then the argument about GHG is irrelevant to them.



With respect to FCV... a FCV range extender makes sense to me.. a pure FCV not very much.

 

It represent about 10% of all Volt miles. The figure I posted is the total miles from GM.

 

The average usage is not the same as what the average volt would do.
When you say "most volt owners", you are not talking about weighting by miles driven but the majority of cars/people. Thus you need to consider the median, not the average. Total miles is skewed by a small fraction of people that drive a lot of miles (mostly on gas). Those people may have chosen the volt for a different reason (since doing 30K miles a year on ICE is already more efficient in a prius.. but maybe they like the drive feel better, or the styling, or power.. )
But what "most people" would do does not inclue them.

You can look at austin's point is that even on volstats the bulk-average (total EV / Total miles) is a very biased statistic, the mean EV ratio is 71 but the median is 80. While we don't know the actual median stats for overall GM, we can likely conclude there is a simialr bias.. i.e. median is much larger than average. (The EV ratio is bounded from above by 100, and since the average is 64, one can show that it is to be expected the average is biased downward. )


So the "average person". (i.e. person with median score) would have an EV ration that is much higher than the bulk average EV ratio.

 

One can purchase electricity from renewable source from the power company so one's electric has no related emissions.

In our area, they have such a surplus of wind generated electricity the utility has tried to shut them down vs. pay for the wind power.

 

With the emission in the current grid, FCV would have lower emission than Model S (or Leaf), and it will totally outclass the Volt. Yes, the first production gen look to have only 4 seats but in term of emission, it is a step forward. It will be part of the solution (not part of pollution).

There is no special criteria. It is just that Volt falls short in so many of the criteria, especially on the emission. I am not the only one looking at electricity generated from all the regions. A report from Union of Concerned Scientists reported the following. Volt struggles to be cleaner than a regular Prius in 20 regions out of 25 total, despite being a smaller compact car.

 

I agree that Volt owners can do something about it. The total percentage of renewable electricity is limited so the number of Volts that could lower emission would be limited as well.

I would say.... for a technology to become mainstream, it'll have to lower emission for national average in order to reach the mass. Volt is not there (yet).

I did not mean to discuss or define the average Volt driver. I was pointing out the number SAE came up with, which EPA is using. Versus the real world EV to HV ratio figure from GM. Going by EPA, 34% of Volt miles will be on gasoline and it would emit 260 g/mi CO2. Going by the real world figure 39% on gas, the emission is likely higher. If we weigh it by the states being sold, it may be lower.

 

First GHG is not pollution.. its GHG. GHG has nothing to do with being "cleaner", it has to do with carbon.

So in your analysis, what is the utility factor of the FCV.. and how often would I have to take my other ICE. The UCS report ignores that for many/most the Leaf is a garage hybrid.. It says 66/34 EV/ICE for the Volt, but does not split out the Leaf.. If I had a Leaf I would have use MORE GAS than my Volt.. because the long trips would ahve used a 28MPG CUV. What fraction of the time would I get to take the FCV.. and when would I have to take the cuv because I might not have enough of a limited access fuel? I don't think anyone knows the answers to that.


Until then I'll buy renewable eletricity.. which is outside the table you present. (Especially important since i live in RMPA.. the most GHG intensive grid in the country.. so buying green may help clean that up).

The use could generate more wind-based energy than 3x its total current transport + eletrictiy fuel usage. Plus it could add a lot of solar and biomas. Not much of a "limit". And the gris is getting cleaner, and in 10 years is expected to be much cleaner. The ICE car will only get worse.
Lowering GHG is not a mainstream issue, so a technology for it will not be mainstream unless its becoming mainstream for a different reason. Lets wait and see if having a good driving experience is enough of a reason for people to switch to a PHEV.

 

All renewable and nuclear electricity have emission. Per the report I linked, see below. The figure was derived from Leaf with 34kWh/100mi efficiency.

WELL-TO-WHEELS EV MILES PER GALLON EQUIVALENT (MPGghg) BY ELEC TRICITY SOURCE

Coal - 30
Oil - 32
Natural Gas - 54
Solar - 500
Nuclear - 2,000
Wind - 3,900
Hydro - 5,800
Geothermal - 7,600

 

I think we can ignore the second car. How many Volt owners have a second larger vehicle to fill a typical family needs? A four seater compact can have as much limitation was a midsize with 73 miles BEV. It totally depends, which is why a midsize plugin hybrid like PiP and C-Max Energi are better design.

 

The issue here was not about miles used from filling another family need, its about miles used because the inherent limitation of the energy source. If you want to ignore the other car for a leaf, then ignore the gas use of the Volt except for the 38-73 mile range.. that would produce very different results-- most miles on trips over 38 miles, are also trips over 73. Similarly what trips would a FCV have to avoid because it might not be able to refuel.

 

Wind, solar, hydro have no emissions. Though hydro is so destructive to the environment it can't really be called a sustainable energy source.

 

Anywhere outside of california in the US until 2020 a FCV will be 100% of consumer miles in a substitute vehicle. No reason to look at how clean the electricity is in a state and compare it to FCV, the owner will driving a different vehicle in that state. It is doubtful toyota will even sell it to you, and they definitely won't service it. FCV with over a 300 mile trip, use the ice value. FCV outside of california, use the ice value.

That is the big distortion of the ghg chart. FCV need a large infrastructure investment, much larger than charging PHEVs with renewable electricity.