Model S deliveries to start in 1 month !

Were any of those cars bought brand new models?

I remember when test driving the Prius that the dealership had a couple of the new Highlander hybrids. They were all Limited trims. I'm sure you could have ordered the lower trim at the time, but you had to be willing the wait. Some people are unable to wait, and are willing to pay to get it now. Sellers have been taking advantage of this in all markets. There might even be an advantage to starting the assembly workers with the fully loaded model in terms of future quality and production output.

Sounds like Tesla has been upfront about when major options are slated for production so customers have an idea about when they can expect their car.

 

Exactly, if you tune your assembly line to produce the car with the most options, it will work when options are removed. If you start it with no options, then add them on, you may need to redesign part of the line. It sounds like they are working out manufacturing kinks with the first 1200, then slowly doing change overs. This makes perfect sense when setting up a factory. When the line is worked out, they will be able to produce 5000 cars a quarter - I'm guessing in 1 shift. If more volume comes up they can add shifts.

I don't see any conspiracies, just good manufacturing management. Remember they are silicon valley folks, and will need to gain car experience, but aren't saddled with many bad car manufacturing practices. This should allow them to adapt to changes more easily than the elephant car companies.

 

Coming from a manufacturing background, they should be using a JIT (Just-In-Time) type of manufacturing process. This way, once they are up and running, it shouldn't matter what orders come down the line, the assembly line should be able to handle it. JIT is based on demand (orders), not forecasts, and is known as a "Pull" type of manufacturing. So they only build what they have to, when they have to and in the exact configuration they have to by maximizing efficiency (resources) through reduced set-ups.

Right now they are maximizing profit to put money back into the company. Once they get through their initial orders and everything stabilizes, they should be able to build in sync with the demand for the various models/options.

 

JIT doesn't preclude dealers having an inventory of cars, Toyota is well know for using JIT and there are acres of unsold Toyotas parked around the world.

The distributors, with dealer input, order the cars, so even though the factory runs JIT, the distributor and dealers serve as a reservoir of inventory.

 

You can't do JiT until you have cleared your backorders.

 

Toyota isn't doing a very good job at JIT right now. Supply chains are long, and too many cars sitting. They use JIT for parts but seem to using a mixed jit/build to stock system. Its better than the old GM manufacturing model, but tesla doesn't have large numbers of dealerships nor large variations on cars.

All JIT systems deal with back orders. You are thinking you can't build quickly to new orders until you finish building to old ones.

 

JIT is a goal, for complex systems with multiple suppliers it frequently turns into NQIT. not quite in time, that's one of the reasons they keep a stock of cars.

 

Exactly. JIT is a goal. When some parts have 6+ months lead time JIT is really not possible. Most big manufacturers claiming JIT have suppliers holding stockpiles nearby. I just call that saving your cash by having suppliers tie up theirs.

 

It is possible, it's just a much bigger Kanban!

 

The big thing is Toyota now has an unwieldy network of dealers and distributors. This causes them not to be able to do a good job at forecasting, thus the lots full of unsold cars. When cars for america are manufactured in Japan with parts from mainland asia, the problems are exacerbated and production can be set a full 3 months before demand signals change. The dealer network was one of the big reasons GM lost as much money as it did. Tesla is not burdened in this way, but it also is much harder for someone to test drive a tesla.

Its much more than that. If there are quality problems, they get caught much sooner in something like TPS. Bad parts should be reported to the suplier and problems fixed before they get to the factory. Part of the TPS has been corrupted and this needs to get fixed.

If you look at the toyota truck plant in san antonio, most suppliers are on the campus by the truck plant. Toyota is trying to get this by blue water. With the Tesla S, volumes are too low to move suppliers, but kanbans can be streched

 

our company has tried to do JIT over the past 15 years. It's been relabeled, SNAFU. If you have to deal with the resulting headaches when the system (constantly) fails, it makes you want to hang your self - unless you're fortunate to suffer from flat affect disorder.

Some of us with the Gen II Prius remember having to wait for weeks & weeks, as the MFD's began to fail in volume. That's JIT at its finest. Yet as a kid, I remember going to the Ford dealer's parts department to pick up a passenger floor mat hold down molding. Right there, in stock. Ahhh for the old days -
.

 

Hill, you either are not doing it right, or have the wrong supply chain. What is the product?

JIT does not work well on a new product without the kinks worked out. JIT is not about under stocking repair parts. Any good service department should have stock for repairs, and these should be replenished JIT This is more a mater of new product, being built far away, with long replenishment cycles. That is not JIT.

 

We actually had very good results using a modified JIT called Demand Flow Technology. This was probably about 16 years ago. We took a manufacturing process that had a throughput of 45 days down to 1 1/2 days. That's not a misprint "one and a half days." I also used these techniques in another company and reduced WIP (Work In Process) by about 85% in a high volume auto parts manufacturer. So it does work!

 

Does the S get both the Tesla proprietary plug as well as the J1773 receiver?


SGH-I717R ? 2

 

The S has a L2 proprietary charger and a standard J1772 adapter. I'm not sure what J1773. The 60kwh and 85kwh packs also have teslas proprietary fast charger.

 

17" screen - just a perfect recipe for my OCD


SGH-I717R ? 2

 

Tesla has not mentioned a Roadster compatible plug. I will ask.