2015 PIP to will have a significantly longer range

With the topic being 2015, tax-credit cannot be included... since it would have expired by then.

Also, when all types of vehicles are dumped into the "car" category, that's quite misleading.

 

So you expect 185,000 Volt sales in the next 3 years (i.e. tax credits to be used up by 2015). That make you even more optimistic than I am.

And while the thread is 2015,, the comment was about the introductory prices, not projected prices.

 

Well, we all know, er, knew, they'd start improving things with EV and hybrid EV once the Tesla partnership started moving forward into many different areas of Toyota... and possibly even Scion. I'm keeping my car for at least three years. I'm in love with it more than any other Prius I've had and I just got it all equipped the way I wanted. On my commute, I'm happy so far!! Guess I'm with BFD: till it gets to 60+ for E, I'm good.

 

It's intriguing how so many seem to overlook (or more likely don't even notice) just how many angles of attack Toyota is actually taking. The process is slow, but the variety of choices to become available as a result will shift the entire product line. The partnership with Tesla is an obvious example. It's a win-win situation for both.

It's not a "let's try this" approach. It's a "here's what we are going to do" strategy. That makes it matter of when, not if.

That's why questioning the PHV model seems so pointless. A diverse offering in the future means providing a low-cost plug-in option for the mainstream. Toyota is already well on the way to doing that. The design brilliantly enhances the existing hybrid system.

Consumer willingness to spend more means the choice of increased capacity & power. It's not required for great efficiency & emissions though. The start with PHV demonstrates heavy dependency on tax-credits isn't necessary either.

Replacement of traditional vehicle production shouldn't be taken lightly. Viable solutions are needed soon. That shouldn't be argued against. We all know the risk attached to consumption & emissions. A small quantity of token vehicles or just mild improvements are far from enough.

 

Agreed.. so hopefully the 2015 Plug in Prius will be more than a token vehicle or mild improvement. Glad to see Toyota realizing that a bigger pack is what is needed and if they can keep the cost down and the usual toyota quality I think they'll have a real winner.

 

That most definitely is not what I meant. It was a reference to the supposed competition, who plans to offer just a few MPG increase and planning to sell well under mainstream quantity. More capacity alone is not enough... which is why Prius appeals to so many. The convenience of being a midsize hatchback really shines in combination with the emissions, efficiency, and price.

The goal is to replace traditional production.

The question is what that magic "range" value should be.

 

Are you calling the original post hype? That seems what you are saying here, when at first you seemed to think it was a good thing. Certainly being included with an article of fuel cell hype from toyota may make you think that way.

But these leaks have been going on a long time, and raising the range of the gen IV phv makes perfect sense. We can suspect that the cost to toyota should be $600/kwh or less in 2015. In 2020 if the DOE is right the cost will drop to around $300/kwh. Once the initial what is it 11 mile CD range costs are added in (about $6000 today) each addional mile only costs $240, and this may drop to $120 by 2020. I have no idea what margin toyota is making on these bigger batteries, but lets say 35%. Many of the phev costs are fixed whether you make it a 10 mile range or 60.

That means a 20 mile range would add an additional $3250 than a 10 mile range in 2015, and this might drop to $1620 in 2020.
A 30 mile range might cost $6500 in 2015 versus a 10 mile range in 2015 and drop to $3250 in 2020.

In 2015 when this gen IV is supposed to start there still should be tax credits in the US, Europe and Japan that cover most of the additional battery price. These will run out during the production run, but battery costs should continue to fall. Its kind of a no brainer that you increase battery size with the redesign. The capacity is likely limited by the volume the battery takes up, not its costs.

 

Pure speculation on my part -- I wondered why Toyota did not take advantage of the tax subsidy to offer a higher electric range, and decided it was a mix of wanting to use the Prius platform with minimal modification to keep R&D costs down; time to market; and need for re-engineering the space and suspension for a larger battery. IF Toyota finds that the market demand for this G1 PHV justifies further development and the design proves reliable and safe, I have little doubt the next gen will have considerably greater range. My WAG is 20-30 miles.

 

Bring it on! I'm so ready to order....

r