Dubious Polk study: "only 35% of hybrid vehicle owners choose to purchase a hybrid again..."

You cannot assume the battery pack will fail and, the cost to fix it varies greatly. A Gen I owner (yota93) recently fixed his battery for $40. He has driven it four months w/out issue. If it breaks again, he will spend another $40 to fix it again. Just like all other cars, if you know what you're doing, you can fix things cheap. Additionally, any car is bound to have a major repair over a 15 yr span so, it all evens out.

As for brake pads/rotors etc, the Prius wins again. Many have gone over 100,000 miles on the original pads/rotors (its amazing what a little regen braking can do). And, if I had to pay $500 every 50kmiles for brake repair (on any car), I would seriously be second guessing my purchase.

 

Well, the way I see it is that people will say, "Compared to what?" While you can bang out the numbers, there are the variables of maintenance that plays on both and then the fears. Like the hybrid battery, which shouldn't be the issue with proper use like the Tesla and the concerns on the different drive train concerns with regards to maintenance. Some will liken that when it does go bad, it will be expensive, given the rare earth metals used for the the car.

This is me just playing devil's advocate, not that I really concern myself with this.

 

325K miles in 15 years is well outside the norm. The average driver does 12K-15K miles a year. Hybrids do have lower TCO for those high mileage drivers.

The average age of an american vehical is 10.8 years right now, which means maybe we can talk about 20years 300,000 miles. They had a problem with gen 0 batteries, so the current oldest prius batteries are in the 2001s, or 11 years old. No one knows how they will age, but.... 2001 prius 41mpg combined its not that much higher than a 33mpg combined eco focus. If you keep your cars 20 years, I may go for the one without the expensive battery. But really why not just say 10 years, the battery should last that long.

 

I bought in March 2009, I was going to break even in 5.5 years at $2.50 gas

I have one more year and I break even (in 4 years) at $3.50 gas

My 1989 Toyota is still on the road, I drove it for 12 year and my daughter for 7. now it is at her high school friends.

 

Correct. With the caveat for the "average driver". There are folks who drive long distances and for them the break even point of hybrid premium vs gas savings will occur much earlier than average.

I'm into reducing my carbon footprint. Science tells us 80% by 2050 for global warming so figure if I can get my energy "fat" American fossil fuel usage down by 80% by 2050. Prius will get my gasoline use down from 500 gallons to 240. 160 for the boat (repowering that from 230 two cycle to 150 four cycle). I'll be down to 400 gallons, 25% reduction. Three years, new car will hopefully be hydrogen fuel cell Clarity FCX or Tesla mini, zero gas so down to 70%.

It's all costing money short term, should break even by 2050 plus kids and grandkids won't be extras in Water World.

 

Well, Consumer Reports at Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/ConsumerReports/posts/10151503780510430) has posted about this dubious Polk "study". It got 30 likes so far and as usual, anti-hybrid FUD misinformation is abound in the comments.

At least there are a few hybrid and Prius owners who haved chimed in to try to dispell some of the garbage.

 

Depends on which part; I take it you never go to La Jolla?

 

Well, I guess I could give my 'hybrid testimony' ...

I did not buy the Prius because it was the cheapest car on the lots. I bought the Prius because I like it; I like hybrid synergy drive. I like the peace and quiet at stop lights, parking lots, etc...

It turns out the Prius has just about the ideal size, format and interior space as well.

My Prius is not 'perfect' (as if there is such a thing); my Prius has a few quirks. It still seems as though the steering wheel is somehow skewed ever so slightly to the left (or is it that my back is not straight?)

I don't like the fact my Prius gets about 12 to 15 MPG in the first minute in the morning and short trips whittle away the fuel economy. But, I'm holding 49.2 MPG overall and it's still not 60F around here.

I could have saved over $5k and got a Hyundai Elantra Touring, but I bet I would have missed having the Smartkey, push button start, electronic shift lever, the better sound system, instant MPG gage, etc... oh, and HSD.

 

Your car's lifetime must be measured in "hamster years". At 7 years I'll still have 3 years of warranty left on the hybrid components. If you are "tired" of the car & just want something newer or better every 3 to 7 years then I'll accept your definition of useful life and that car will go to someone that will be thrilled to have it.

In the 3 year term of the survey we came close to a depression & three natural disasters wrecked havoc with the Asian auto industry. If you need to buy a car & there isn't a Prius on the lot then you bought a non-hybrid.

Hybrids aren't the cheapest cars on the market. If you lost your job AND needed to replace your Prius you might have settled for something cheaper and conventional. Mom's Malibu was < $20K OTD in Feb. Who's selling a new Prius at that price?

To answer your question, yes, I bought a Prius to save money. I cut my gasoline expense in half. Oil changes are less frequent and, so far, free. I expect less maintenance so I'm saving money every year.

 

I didn't say "useful life" so you are having a conversation with yourself on that topic.

I noted that average car owner will not recoup the hybrid premium in fuel savings. Based on average mileage of 12,000 a year and average retention of 7 years, that is a fact.

That fact may explain the results of the study especially with greater availability of high mileage conventional cars.

I don't know that the 35% is not a high number or what you would compare it to. Anyone buying a hybrid is likely concerned over gasoline usage and wants high mileage. That they did not buy a hybrid again doesn't meant they did not buy some other high mileage alternative.

 

More of the media is picking up on this dubious study. The front page of Yahoo currently has a link to Hybrid Car Owners Not Buying Again - Yahoo! News. The link text is Once you go hybrid, seems you can go back.

Sigh...

 

Not to worry. It's just FUD likely flung by our oil and car companies. I would imagine the big 3 are somewhat nervous seeing the Prius family clocking in at ...

#6 of all passenger cars, trucks and SUVs for the month of March 2012.

They need to spread FUD while they figure out how they are going to copy and compete with Prius in years to come. Prius has most bases covered - subcompact, tweener, midsize wagon and Plug-in tweener. The competition has nothing to compete with it to date.

 

Lftback Prius can be compared to Hyundai Elantra Touring GLS automatic with pref package and bluetooth. It's $5.3k diff cost and 7.3 cents/mile more on gas with Elantra, assume $4 gas for next 9 years. That's 81k miles to make up diff, considering no other maintenance issues. At 12kmi/ year, you'll make it up in under 7 years. But, then hopefully the battery will last well over our 10 yr. warranty period (CA).

If one drives 8k mi / year and pinching pennies, don't buy a Prius.

If you drive 15k+ per year, you'll be just fine with Prius. Make up diff in 5.5 years and pull ahead with thousands to replace traction battery. After that, should be saving all the way.

btw, today's quote for 2004 Prius hybrid battery parts/labor was $3,110 .... down from $5k+ some years ago.


btw, don't compare Elantra, Cruze, Focus sedans with Prius .... not cool.

 

Sure you did. What do you think a depreciation schedule is ? LOL

 

Nope.

Why do you think I noted that depreciation had nothing to do with it when SOMEONE ELSE also brought it up?

Premium for a hybrid is about $4K. Using an identical car, hybrid vs non-hybrid version like a Camry. At what point do you recover the $4K via gas savings.

 

Wrong 'identical car', I can't get a 17 foot ladder in a Camry. All the stuff in my Prius makes a small SUV my 'identical car' I came from a Subaru Forester, but you may chose any one you like, then my 'break even' is about 4 years at today's prices. (It was 5.5 years with $2.50 gas when I bought it, but we did not keep $2.50 gas, and we may never see $3.50 gas again, and today's Prius is more fuel efficient than my Gen 2)

30,000 * 4 = 120,000 miles (I have 92,000 miles, on March 28th my Prius was 3 years old)

120,000 /50 = 2,400 gallons at $3.50 = $8400 in gas
120,000 /24 = 5,000 gallons at $3.50 = $17,500 in gas

$9100

Did I pay for the entire car? No.

Did I make back any 'Hybrid premium' you invent? Yes.

 

Last post on this tangent ...

You want to only count fuel cost savings and purchase cost delta;
The remainder of the world recognizes that TCO is also influenced by differential costs of depreciation, insurance, maintenance, and repairs.

We *are* talking about TCO here, and your partial accounting scheme is a poor estimate of TCO.

Equally dubious, would be someone who comes here and says "hybrids are a money pit and a horrible ROI, because you can never recover the hybrid premium in oil change savings over the 12 months I like to keep a car."

 

I recognize that too, but leave the complicated analysis to someone else

 

I acknowledge that other people have different opinions or reasons for driving a hybrid. I don't feel any compulsion to kiss the ring of the early Prius drivers. Toyota put their money at risk to prove technology.

 

Camry LE vs. Camry LE Hybrid is identical car comparison.