Dubious Polk study: "only 35% of hybrid vehicle owners choose to purchase a hybrid again..."

That's funny. We posted the same story pretty much at the same time, and both agree that it's not exactly... stellar.

I allow a mod to merge mine into this, as yours link includes the original press release.

Edit: I can also do it myself! Here is the other thread content:

Link to article:
http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.d...d-buyers-dont-buy-another-one-polk-study-says

The article starts out by excluding the (by far) best selling hybrid and says:
"Excluding owners of the best-selling Toyota Prius, the repurchase rate among other hybrid buyers dropped to 22 percent, according to a Polk study released today."

The article talks about how Loyal Prius owners are, but does not provide an industry average to compare to.
It ends with an attempt at an explanation for the low hybrid market share, and guesses it's due to the improved fuel economy of normal cars.
But again, it does not provide any figures for comparison, such as how hybrid and conventional car fuel economy has changed.

 

"And San Diego is hot bed of geriatric conservativism. "
Not a description of San Diego

 

Yeah, because their next car is an EV or PHEV.

Wouldn't catch me going back to a conventional car .... blech

 

I'm sure they are counting phevs as hybrids.

Let's face it, there are many more non-hybrid choices. Outside the prius the big sellers were the hondas, escape, and rx. Honda's didn't buy loyalty, the escape hasn't been redesigned. The Lexus RX is expensive, and if you downsize you get mileage up. The figures make sense.

If you had a prius you either buy another or go non hybrid.

The good news then, is these new hybrid sales are to people who have never had a hybrid before.

 

I have to question this study. I just really don't believe hybrid loyalty is that low. I know I've read that according to CR Prius owners are among the most satisfied with their cars, but to say only 60% buy a Toyota, let alone another Prius seems questionable.

Also, is it possible that this study looked at purchase from 2011 not as a replacement, but as a secondary vehicle? Meaning: I bought a Prius in 2010. If I bought another car now it might not be a Prius, but I may still have the Prius; the new vehicle replaces my other non-hybrid.

From Polk's site, they have no numbers or real data behind their findings, so I find this all extremely dubious.https://www.polk.com/company/news/only_35_percent_of_hybrid_owners_buying_hybrids_again_says_polk

Anybody know how they actually measured this? Did they measure people replacing their hybrid or buying a second vehicle?

 

I don't know how they did the study. Prius owners are more likely to buy anouther toyota than other toyota buyers Highest was hyundai at 64%. Prius owners are also the hybrid owners most likely to buy a new hybrid.
Study: Hyundai named tops in owner brand loyalty

 

There is no valid basis of comparison in this study, and the "conclusions" are garbage.

 

There is no way I would go back to a sub 40mpg car. If there turns out to be a conventional that can do that and it strikes my fancy then I might turn away from a hybrid but we will be more likely to go all hybrid in the future.

 

Of course Hybrid owners would not buy another hybrid outside the Prius. Those car owners had Civic Hybrid and GM crap hybrids.

Guess most of the 35% are from Ford and other Toyota owners?

 

If by 'would not buy another hybrid', they mean 'would not buy a car with Hybrid Decals and a big alternator from GM' I can see why this poll could be right.

If the poll excludes real hybrids, they will have a high percentage of former BAS owners.
[ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BAS_Hybrid]BAS Hybrid - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

 

Consider that hybrids are a rapidly growing market. I suspect this sets up a strong selection bias. New car buyers unloading a Prius will be biased towards recent owners who dislike it or regularly trade cars on a whim, while the owners looking to replace it with a newer Prius will tend to be longer term owners who bought in when the market was smaller.

If my guess is correct, this selection bias would shrink when, and if, hybrid's market share matures and stabilizes. And a survey of current owners, including those not trading in now, would show a significantly higher satisfaction rate.

 

We all hope hybrids are going to become a rapidly growing market. In the past spikes like march have been followed with down turns so that yearly take rates have only been 3% or less, which has been stable. When this was taken the take rate was at 2.44%, which was lower than 2008. If we look at the general market 97.6% bought non-hybrids,while 65% of previous hybrid drivers bought non-hybrids in 2011. The percent of hybrid cars needs to rise to much higher levels to drop these percentages.

If it stays stable around 3%, the bias will stay against hybrids If it matures at a higher level which we expect because of higher choice because of cafe standards than people may choose more hybrids.

 

Oh rats. I was too slow to post this after work. I also was tickled/dubious of this study. Granted, I read comments from a very biased forum of individuals. However, everything I've heard or read from real people says once you go hybrid you stay hybrid. There's something off about this.

 

I bought a Prius, then I replaced my wife's minivan with another minivan. Does that mean I "switched" to a non-hybrid? I kept my Prius, after all.

 

Perhaps I am wrong, I got the impression that new car buyers were asked what car they were buying now, and what car they had bought before the current purchase.

There are a whole slew of biases that creep into a survey of this type; and more important, the reader is not given a frame of reference. What fraction of Ford Bronco SUV buyers buy the same car at the next car purchase ? Same question for boat sized SUVs ? Who knows

Even taken at face value (which is horribly under-estimated,) we can say that owners of hybrid cars are 10 fold more likely to buy a hybrid in 2011 that the general US buying public. That is pretty good news, if it ends up being the near future equilibrium.

 

If you actually read the Polk release you'll see that they give statistics about purchase of any hybrid vehicle. It's 41% for the Prius replacers and 20% for the Honda replacers.

Of course, if 41% of people replacing a Prius are buying another hybrid, then there must be plenty of new Prius buyers.

 

Me, either.

The real reason I haven't bought another is that I haven't worn out the first one yet. I wonder if that factors in to the study.

 

The greater majority of Prius on the roads today in the US are less than 5 years old, so these (Prius owner) car buyers are mostly two groups:

1. Additional car to add to Prius
2. Unhappy owners of recently bought Prius

CR tells us that group (2) is 5-10% at most, so I think the most we can say from the Polk study is that less than half of families choose to be Prius only when buying time arrives again.

If this study was completed in early 2012 when Americans once again flocked to SUVs, the results are even less surprising. Too bad the authors did not compare to 'economy compact fuel efficient not hybrid.'