March Volt numbers are in - 2,289

I still think it's a valid concern. I made a trip to the ER a month back. Ambulance wasn't in the works because it's much slower than me leaving house. I could certainly have borrowed a vehicle from neighbors, though. But, like you said as long as a person has a gas vehicle in backup it's quite moot.

 

This is why I ruled out a plug in. I live in an apartment complex and am not aware of any way to charge at home without filing some type of formal request for the owner to put one in (wouldn't happen). But if the city, or Chevy/Nissan/Toyota/etc. offered more accessible and quick charging stations, that might just be enough to sway some of us apartment dwellers.

 

Blinded by hate for Prius, a Volt owner yesterday said: "Public chargers will do nothing, notta, zippo, for plug-in sales." I simply reminded myself his "vastly superior" claims fall on many deaf ears now. Seeing charging-stations become available here will indeed be an influence. Focus is shifting to the market in general too, rather than hope & hype of the past.

This previous month's sales of Volt included 2011 clearance models and HOV-eligible 2012 models with both federal & state credits. So, it doesn't provide any basis to measure trend. What April, May and June reveals will be telling... especially now that PHV deliveries are in progress.

There really isn't an early adopter phase either, since there is already a widely accepted charging standard and PHV is actually on its third generation. There isn't much for misconceptions either. The challenge now is basically setting realistic expectations for ordinary consumers.
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I don't think public chargers will do much for phev sales either. No hate here. They will help adoption of bevs, and help phevs use less gasoline Do you expect public chargers to make the prius phv take off? I would have to say the texas public charging system can't help much since toyota decided demand isn't high enough in texas to sell phvs here here Texas is second in buying volts behind california, and high on the leaf chart.

Certainly the next quarter is more important than the last. That last sentence doesn't it me very well. DO you expect the phv introduction to help or hurt volt sales? If you are predicting they will hurt sales, how low do you think the next 3 months will go? 500/mo? I think the phv for sale will get more people talking positively about plug ins and help as much as hurt next quarter for the volt.

I'm not sure what you think the first generation phv was, but most analyst expect that the prius will go through an early adopter phase. Do you think the demo version was a generation with a completely different battery pack? IMHO march phv sales were good. If the phv is main stream as you seem to think with not price premium for technology and risk than you must think march phv sales were disappointing for toyota. Is that your opinion?

 

They will contribute to the purchase decision. I have no idea what "take off" means. Did you have a quantity in mind?

There were 3 very distinct models, each with different batteries & configurations. Use whatever label you find fitting. Each built upon what was learned from the previous.

We're still seeing only pre-order deliveries. There isn't the option to actually buy one off the lot yet. So, there's no way to gauge demand. We were told it would take roughly 3 months. Ask me in July, after there's been a month for consumers to choose... at least in the initial rollout states.

In the meantime, some people get to go for test drives and read about owner experiences.

Remember, the Volt enthusiast harped on and on about being patient until the second year, when sales would achieve the 5,000/month level (mainstream minimum).... which I think is quite realistic for March 2013 sales of PHV here.
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I am quite skeptical of the idea that we need public chargers for a phev like the prius phv or volt to sell. Most will charge at home and/or work and use gasoline in between. This is an advantage for phevs over bevs, where you need a public infrastructure.

Its the first generation. Since its so close to the gen III prius, I don't expect many problems, but really the rest were demos and prototypes.

You seemed to be saying it was a mainstream, not a niche vehicle. That is why I asked. IMHO its niche, and a slow roll out is appropriate.

We will see next march then, 60K, but I would like to see your number as that seems optimistic to me. I assume you mean that figure for the US.

But lets face it, the phv in the prius is really just a battery option. Maybe its already mainstream with an initial adopter option, the prius definitely qualifies. Think of it like the first expensive gps head units that went into cars. The bigger battery only changes the phv for the better. If toyota allows it to be optioned right, who wouldn't want a bigger battery in his prius with the option to run on plug electricity.

 

... dead batteries, running out of gas are occasional failures/operator error. Pulling into garage with 20 miles remaining on Leaf I'm guessing is quite common.

If someone is a single car, Leaf owner, they come home from a long commute and scootch in the garage with 10 miles showing on the gage, they cut their hand and need to go to doctor, or the cat is half dead, whatever .... waiting on a charging car is not an option. This is not a mechanical failure, but the nature of BEV. This is not an unreasonable scenario. Injuries happen.

Do Leafers not pull into garage with 10 or 15 showing on gage? What is a good rule of thumb? Don't let you Leaf gage go under 20?

Having 20 miles range left on my Prius would be like driving after 1 pip has been blinking for the last xx miles. I hit 1 pip, I fill up, that's it.

 

How is public charging *for BEVs only* working in other countries?

Still can't grasp the idea of ... 'Need to get to a fast charger in Walnut Creek to get 50 miles range to get home to Fremont, but have to spend 20 minutes at a store/charger station I don't want to be at, it's Sunday night at 8pm and just want to get home, so does the rest in the car. We already had dinner and ran around with family, but must wait at charging station. Ah, c#$p, someone else is using the charger '

.. that's if you can get a fast charge. On L2, don't bother.

 

I don't think any country has a great infrastructure right now. I certainly advocate phevs being able to use public charging infrastructure. I just don't think it will change sales very much for these cars. For BEVs it is more important.

I can't either, but definitely plenty of people can use BEVs just charging at work and home. L2 allows people to have less range anxiety. We have them here in parks and libraries. Put an hour in in case you screwed up. Fast chargers mean we need fewer chargers, so the oh s&%t moment doesn't happen as often.

 

To point out something, the Electric Carts at the University were not 'home brewed', but they cited that it is a common mistake to people who are not used to Electric Carts to forget either to charge it or remember to unplug it when it has been charged. Those Electric carts are also used to haul things, light loads and carry two people around campus.

As for the safety feature of not leaving park while plugged in, that's great... But when one is in a rush like Cycledrum is pointing out, sometimes that also is 'maddening', even if the connection is on the driver's side front.

 

That's twice you've implied necessity. Why?

I'm just saying it will help, that sales will come easier with them than without.
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because IMHO the extra sales will be a rounding error. I don't think people will buy a prius phv only if they can search for a public charger, wait for a space, then charge for 1.5 hours to get anouther set of electric miles in. If they are going to buy one they will buy it with or without the public charging infrastructure. They do want charging at work and home. I have never heard a decent argument that made any sense that building public chargers would bring more phev customers. You certainly have not made a coherant argument at all.

OK. How many more? I know you didn't have a broad public charging infrastructure when you bought yours.

 

I doubt, like you, that PHV buyers must have widespread public charging, but I could see them enjoying it quite a bit, depending on the cost!

i.e. Joe takes the PiP out to lunch during workday, there's an open charger in front of restaurant. You know how lunches out are with the group, you take well over an hour. Maybe he's all charged up again and uses up 5 miles range to get back to work. If the charge price is right and Joe is motivated to plug in yet again, it's less gas used.

Biggest thing working against PHV's now ... price. Hybrid cost more, but PHV's cost a Lot more.

 

For the general public, the ones that don't have a clue and still think regular hybrids need to be plugged in, lots of public chargers would go a long way towards easing worries they have about range.

 

I definitely agree. PHEV drivers will use them, but they won't drive PHEV sales. I'm hopeful that gen IIs bring the price premium down. Lets face it, batteries are improving about 7% a year, with the new dollars maybe we are accelerating it. Until then, its initial adopters, but I think there are hundreds of thousands of them. Cost here is $2/hr or free for 240V.

 

I don't believe that the increased charger infrastructure == more sales overall, but I believe a better charging infrastructure would make it a bit easier on people to decide if they want to go PHEV or BEV, taking advantage of the electrical nature, knowing that range will not be a 'major' issue if people were to go further than the ideal roundtrip range if coming from just home charging. For instance, while I live in Goleta, the three places to shop for things are 3, 7 and 10 miles from where I am. But, sometimes, I have to go 40, or 50 miles away or worse yet, go to Los Angeles if there are certain things I want.

Now if there were more charges for sure in the 40 or 50 mile range, I can see using a Leaf if I were to go out that far, but not if some of those charging places are not near where I want to go. While I could, theorhetically, find some charging places in Los Angeles, the ones might not be where I want to go, which makes it difficult to spend more time in another place I may not want to be to make sure I can make a return trip.

By having more charging locations, generally in places that I might actually spend time at... Makes the PHEV or EV cars a little worthwhile, as I could have my car charging up and mitigating my gas fuelup if I was on a PHEV, or at least be able to make use of a BEV car without needing to go in some podunk area that has nothing I care about, sitting there waiting to charge.

 

Better information. GM still doesn't have its logistics down, or its predictive powers. It looks like they are expecting a worse april, because they won't have the right inventory in the right place, then a ramp up to about 3000/month sales by the end of the year.

Not So Fast!: Volt Sales Surge Just 1st Step, Chevy Exec Says - Forbes

Sure, and let me be clear I'm in favor of a public charging infrastructure. There is a volt guy in florida that went 190 miles in a day all electric by stopping and partially charging as well as hypermiling. But said guy would probably have bought the car anyway.

Locally NRG and the municipal utilities of Austin and San Antonio are building the structure. We probably need a structure for BEVs to get good market share, but phevs can use them, making it profitable for a private company like NRG to invest. These utilities hope that having the structure will bring more plug-ins that they can sell power to at home and business. NRG will make more money if there is more charging demand at night. Austin and San Antonio utilities can add more wind with more night charging. It all needs to work together. It looks like NRG is going to be building out a lot of the structure in California, as part of a deal with the government. Austin is putting the new chargers in parks and libraries, and these all have internet, so you can work or play as you wait for your car to charge.

Then their is the political attacks against the volt
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012...ney-for-Chevy-Volt-remark/UPI-84581333612800/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickung...ey-and-the-gop-have-against-the-chevy-volt/2/

 

I think more public charging station will increase the sales of plugins with smaller battery (Prius PHV) since you can recharge more often at each leg of the trip. Those without a garage will finally consider Prius PHV, especially with HOV access and 50 MPG on regular gas.

BEV sales should increase as well due to lower range anxiety.

The biggest loser will be the plugin hybrid with oversized battery pack, like the Volt. If you can recharge more often, there is no need to pay extra for the oversized pack. You rather have more useful standard features and extra interior room that Prius PHV offers.

 

austin, i don't get it. if lack of availability is hindering sales, why did they shut down the factory?