Heartland Institute...a change of heart?

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by tochatihu, Feb 15, 2012.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    If Gleick is the creator of the fake document, that is even worse for him. It feeds into the paranoia that climate scientists fake their data.
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/02/21/BA0R1NAEQI.DTL
    Since it was a climate scientist instead of a reporter that did this, it may feed even more of the non-science. Shame on Gleick, and shame on the heartland institute. From the above link


    If you look at my climate gate link above, you will see an email from phil jones to mann telling him to hide his data from the hockey stick and not to let anyone see the email or the real methods. PCA is a legitimate method, unfortunately mann did not do it properly. To his credit he eventually released his data and did not follow Jones conspiracy. Most of the other scientists in the emails also did not participate in the conspiracy, but they did also not discourage it. The fresh air of other eyes allows us to have a more correct picture of proxies, and we now reject the idea that tree rings give us a better picture of past climates than the other proxies that disagreed with mann. The new picture with a shaft that includes the LIA and MWP is more complete, and more consistent with the pre MBH literature. Nothing that mann did though casts any doubt that global warming is happening, nor did any of the analysis affect the temperature record of the blade of the hockey stick. Anyone who claims the blade is not happening simply is not looking properly at the data. Apologies to Mojo if this is not his position, and I leave it to him to clarify what he means. Mann himself in later papers has corrected his shaft to include the better proxies. Let's get the science right and keep the politics out of it.

    http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2107364,00.html
     
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  2. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ....I take it back, now we have Climategate-II
     
  3. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Austingreen"Any one like Mojo that claims the blade is not happening simply is not looking properly at the data."

    Never my position.Edit your post.
     
  4. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Getting the science right on paleotemperatures should include several published reconstructions since the 2006 NAS report. Many (not all) of those are cited in the hockey stick wiki mentioned above. Some do not involve tree rings at all.

    As assistant editor for AustingG, I'll point out that Mojo is a person. So it should be "Anyone like Mojo who..." (not that).

    Is that the error you had in mind? 'simply' should go after 'is', and 'properly' should be (at the end) after 'data'. But we rarely polish our English quite that well here.
     
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  5. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Thanks for the edit.
    I dont know of anyone who has any contention with the Blade in Manns graph.
    The blade is the spliced on instrumental data and is the only accurate data presented by Mann.
    The handle of the stick is where Mann used trickery to eliminate the Medieval Warming Period and the Little Ice Age.
    Also,the fact that Mann spliced on the blade to hide the dip in tree ring temperatures ("hide the decline") is devious and proof that Mann is a propagandist not a scientist.
    Also its proof that tree rings are very inaccurate proxies for temp,unless you believe that world temps have been dropping since the 60s, as shown in Manns hidden data.
     
  6. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    One regional paleoclimate reconstruction is called MADA the monsoon Asia drought atlas

    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5977/486.abstract

    (paywalled, but see your librarian or I could send you an 'evaluation copy')

    I mention it here because I have downloaded MADA and used it. The downloading is not easy because it is whacking big, but hey, I could send you that as well. Ed Cook et al wouldn't object; it is intended to be public.

    The point is, wherever you choose to look (it is spatially explicit, being an atlas), over the last 40 years or so, it goes strongly negative (towards drought). In fact this is the only paleorecord that I have personally dealt with, so I am speaking a bit past my knowledge to suggest that other paleoclimate reconstructions do so as well. A bit further past my knowledge to suggest that they should be excused for doing so.

    But I am trying to say that paleoreconstructions may be useful for paleo, and that the more recent instrumental records are the most useful in the recent time. So yes, in fact I am speaking in favor of splicing. But of course, this should be explained in full. As I understand the hockey stick controvery, at least part of that arose because at least in one publication, the splicing was not explained.

    Does that correspond with anyone else's understanding here? Whether it does or not, I am most interested in the most reliable information being used for any phase of paleo-to-current reconstructions. If we are not there yet, it is certainly where we should be headed.

    +++
    Separate issue, as I began all this with 'private is private' I want to mention something that has recently been reposted at WUWT

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/...os-when-you-have-access-to-private-documents/

    Therein Anthony Watts retells what he did with (more acccurately, about) private information when it came his way in 2011 November. In my opinion he acted entirely correctly. I'm sure he'd disagree with me that CRU emails should be private, but that is not at all the point. In 2011 November he acted entirely correctly.

    I was not aware of the original posting in 2011 November because (as I may have mentioned here before) the WUWT website has often been blocked to me in the past. It's not blocked now, and so there you go.
     
  7. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Austingreen "PCA is a legitimate method, unfortunately mann did not do it properly. To his credit he eventually released his data and did not follow Jones conspiracy."

    Mann revealed his data only after Congress demanded it.No credit to Mann.
     
  8. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    I'm not up on the topic, but I got an email link relating to "heartland" yesterday - and what is/isn't taught in schools:

    http://climaterealityproject.org/20...itute-keep-climate-denial-out-of-our-schools/

    I don't take issue with climate change because it's evident . . . . and because man-made amounts are speculative . . . . and because any "cure" for the "issue" colaterally solves more important issues such as carbon fuel/sustainability / political unrest, etc etc.

    If schools want to teach (global warming) that the jury is still out (regarding man made elements of climate change) ... is that such a big deal? Debating what's 'true' or 'false' or 'unknown' is ok by me.

    .

    .
     
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  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Well IMHO he should not have stalled, but if you read the link I posted near the beginning, Phil Jones was trying to get him to hide his methods and data and get around the foia. Mann did actually release the information so that the data and methods were reviewed long before climate gate exposed the emails. The science was then corrected through the peer review process. It would have been much worse for mann if he had followed Jones's directions.
     
  10. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    If I remember correctly there was a recent discussion in FHOP about public school curriculum. Major reforms in that are probably better discussed at Fred's because the issue extends beyond environmental.

    I suppose Hearthland's climate science modules attract attention, in part, because 'teach the controversy' is central in evolution/creationism/intelligent desgn discussions also.

    I start from the assumption that lesson plans are already full, and something added means that something else must be taken away. Thus, a great deal of circumspection is appropriate before jumping.

    Actually there was a discussion on this topic at RealClimate started about a week before the Hearthland purloining. My impression of the discussion was that the simpler aspects of physics, chemistry and biology do (could) support standard science lessons. And that controversial matters (raised from across the spectrum) do not.

    It's hard to imagine any treatment of basics that would both satisfy Heartland and RealClimate though :)

    There are a lot of cutting-edge developments with large societal implications that might as well be considered for teaching. Genetic technology, nanotechnology, computer architecture, & many. Even the youngsters here learned stale information about those, or perhaps none at all.

    If HI or RC or anybody else proposes that their own field of interest should be shoehorned into curricula, at the expense of all others, I'd want to hear some pretty compelling reasons why.
     
  11. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    I presume students in the USA are already being brainwashed with the likes of "An Inconvenient Truth".
    A film so full of untruths its forbidden from UK schools,without showing an alternative viewpoint.
     
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  12. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    Sure, unless the debate is nonsense.

    At least ping the Wikipedia before you decide how benign the debate is.

    [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change]Scientific opinion on climate change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

    Key paragraph:

    "Since 2007, when the [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Association_of_Petroleum_Geologists"]American Association of Petroleum Geologists[/ame] released a revised statement,[101] no scientific body of national or international standing rejects the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.[6][7]"

    But like hey, if you're OK with teaching your (grand?) kids that the issue is still in doubt, mazel tov.
     
  13. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...the only paper I saved from high school was a report I did on global warming 40 years ago. I said we might be flooded out by year 2000 unless we banned fossil fuels and went to nukes. Only now after 2011 events do I think maybe nukes are not the answer, and maybe we continue using fossil fuels. The issue is not so much that Global Warming is taught, it is an interesting science topic. But it's the value judgements, bad guys, good guys and proposed actions is the problem.
     
  14. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Mojo, I don't share the presumption that US students are brainwashed. I do know some students whose minds were made up after watching 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' so perhaps it is reversible :)

    Those two films deliver opposing messages, to be sure. I suppose we might disagree on which of them presented science more fairly. But my interest is not movie wars in class; it is getting enough of the basic sciences in hand so that brains become less 'washable'.

    OTOH if a teacher's goal is to stimulate discussion, either of those would probably serve.

    wjtracy, I'm glad that you were wrong in your HS report!
     
  15. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Mojo piqued my interest so much at #51 that I just had to look.

    The long form is here

    Dimmock v Secretary of State for Education & Skills [2007] EWHC 2288 (Admin) (10 October 2007)

    and made more accessible to (us) non-lawyers here

    BBC NEWS | UK | Education | Gore climate film's nine 'errors'

    I imagine that someone else may have gone through 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' that I mentioned as a counterpoint. Also with a view towards where it went wrong.

    Presuming that teachers found time available to present both or either, along with evidence-based discussions of their shortcomings, I'd not oppose either one as a teaching tool.

    In fact I've not viewed either one entirely. Shameful. But the links above help me to form an opinion about where Gore's film went wrong.
     
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  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Hogwash.

    The UK review rejected (at the time) that a scientific concensus existed for a couple of details in the movie. The overarching message, that climate change was real and caused by humans, was not in doubt.

    Go take your meds
     
  17. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    The UK court didn't even touch upon the most aggregious lies in an Inconvenient Truth.
    1)That Gore leads the audience to believe that CO2 rise causes temp rise in the ice core graphs.Without informing the audience that CO2 levels lag temp by 800 years.
    2)That the hockey stick graph is exaggerated by having the graph rise over the top of the screen and having to use a cherry picker lift to point out present day temps.
    When the truth is that temps were higher for most of the past 10,000 years.

     
  18. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I found that helpful. There was a recent article in NYTimes about why scientists fail to get into public office in the USA. Basically we seem to like our information to be politicized and hyped and black and white decisive (with no scientific hedging). On this basis, Gore's film is flawless (to one half of the audience anyway).

    Why Don't Americans Elect Scientists? - NYTimes.com
     
  19. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Heartland is trying to play both sides of what is clearly a double standard. The source of funding is irrelevant. All that should matter is the truth, but sadly, that sounds hopelessly naive.

    Here's another opinion with some additional information that speaks to both the immediate issue and the overall problem.
     
  20. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    If you're going to apply a standard, at least apply it equally. The Heartland Institute is also supported by taxpayers, because it's non-profit and is exempt from taxes.