How high will gasoline go in 2012

Capatlisim rocks

 

You do know that there is a buyer and seller for every futures contract, don't you? Unlike stocks, futures are a zero sum game.


iPad ?

 

There is a buyer and a seller for every contract, but there is never the exact same number of buy offers as sell offers on the table at any one time. If there are more people wanting to buy than sell, prices rise. If there are more people wanting to sell than buy, prices fall.

This is exactly the same as with any other commodity where monopolies or cartels do not exist, and where there are a large number of buyers and sellers.

 

Again, for every contract bought, there is one that is sold. AT EVERY PRICE LEVEL there is a willing buyer and a willing seller. Of course the price fluctuates, but the person said it depends on whether oil futures are being bought or sold. Well they are always being bought and sold. There are never more contracts bought than sold. A futures contract is where a willing buyer and a willing seller come to an agreement. The number of buys and sells are ALWAYS EQUAL.

 

But not the number of buy and sell offers, which was daniel's point.

Tom

 

Of course, but that is not the point I was making to the person that said it depends on whether oil futures are being bought or sold. They are always being bought and sold. There can never be more contracts bought than sold and vice versa. Offers are meaningless unless they are accepted by someone.

 

Offers may be meaningless, but in general that is not the case. The number and price of offers directly controls the eventual price of contracts. If you don't have an offer, you don't have a contract. You can't have one without the other.

Tom

 

Whatever. This just so happens to be the way I make my living, and you all are taking me away from it. with meaningless bullshit. Later

 

back OT, gas is over $4/gallon for REGULAR here in NY (at some stations)

(and I just bought my tahoe too )

 

You are picking nits. Yes, there is a buyer and a seller in every transaction. But a surplus of people wanting to buy raises the price, and a surplus of people wanting to sell lowers the price.

PriusSport did not phrase his point well, but the underlying point is still valid, which is that speculators affect the price of oil by bidding futures up or down, depending on whether more of them want to buy or sell.

Of course that is not the only factor in oil prices. Increasing worldwide demand for the oil itself, and the move from depleted easy-to-extract oil to harder-to-extract oil are factors as well. Speculators merely raise the price above what it would otherwise be, while government subsidies lower it below what it would otherwise be.

 

The choice to join the discussion is yours. And it's far from meaningless. There's a surprising number of complex variables that go into the price of any commodity, and seemingly subtle yet vital differences between price and cost.

 

Well, as long as you remember to buy high and sell low all should be good. No, wait a minute, it might be the other way around. Those nit picking details can be bothersome.

Tom

 

Overlooked is the fact that if future contract sellers and buyers did not come out ahead over time, there would be no futures market at all. Some amount of real money coming from the actual buyers of gas must be diverted into the futures market.

 

It seems to have leveled off around here, at least at some gas stations. The two I pass frequently which hit $4.03/gal for regular a few days ago are still at $4.03.

 

...but last year SPR was used by POTUS to control prices during the Libyan outage. Being an election year suspect we will see this if gaso prices rise too much.

As far as price stability, the problem is the global market we are part of. On the one hand, we like getting cheap prices at Walmart when the global market gives us low prices. When the tide turns and global market causes higher prices, that is harder to accept. Even conservative Bill O'Reilly on FOX is suggesting he feels Congress should act to control fuel exports to mitigate impact of global prices on US prices.

 

Woah, after what seemed like leveling off at $4.03/gal on 2/21, today on 2/22 (well, I'm a few mins past midnight now), I saw gas at those same two stations at $4.19/gal! Wow!

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/busines...mp-10-cents-during-abcs-world-news-broadcast/ had a news story where the gas prices jumped 10 cents during the 2 minutes they cut away for a recorded story. You could see the digits flashing (in preparation for the change, I guess) while the reporter's talking.

 

As I was returning from a Canadian ski vacation yesterday, the radio news mentioned that regional wholesale gas prices jumped $0.20/gal the day before. The news was blaming not just the international tensions, but also uncertainties about when a major regional refinery at Cherry Point will restart following Friday's fire.

But after spending two weeks in Canada, our prices seem cheap. Up there, we saw CDN$1.089 to 1.319 / liter, which translates to US$4.12 to 5.03/gallon. Driving the other car, not the Prius, this was painful.

For color coded gas price maps, see USA National Gas Price Heat Map and Canada National Gas Price Heat Map.

 

They sure do. You'd think Canadian oil would be cheaper for Canadians, but nooooo.....

 

vat...

 

It was certainly cheaper for oil-baron Albertans than for you British Columbians.

I just closed my eyes and hoped that it reflected a more rational fuel tax policy than we have in the states. Please don't tell me that otherwise, even if yours is as irrational as ours.