Prius Plug-in Lithium Ion Battery Replacement Costs

Very interesting, I learned something new. I still think a manual transmission is a better analogy. More people probably associate a clutch as being controlled by the clutch pedal in manual transmission.

But the Camry is a midsize car with worse aerodynamics and is partly tuned for performance. The HS 250h is also a compact, but is tuned for performance/luxury. In any case, my hangups for them are the same as the Volt; compromises were made that lowered their efficiency.

Hm, it seems like it was not ok to bring up Prius Plug-In prototype numbers for "what people got" or "what people can get", yet it is ok to bring them up for the Volt...

 

My comparisons between the Volt, 250h, and Camry hybrid were all based on consistent EPA estimates.

I tossed in my clearly-labelled real-world personal experience as an additional datapoint.

 

At some point adding more battery is not going to make the car better. That point will be different from a plugin hybrid than a pure EV. I believe the market (through science) should decide the optimal point. What we have here is the government deciding the best is 16kWh (Volt).

 

Apples vs. oranges vs. grapes. Camry is a midsize. The compact HS250h has been discontinued, are you implying that Volt will too?

Again, if Volt's replacement battery pack is also subsidized, that will be $15k tax payer dollar per Volt.

 

Seriously? Have you seen anything that would lead a rational person to think they are going to start giving tax credits for replacement parts? This is ridiculous, and irresponsible, speculation.

 

They're trying to encourage battery development (the most important thing) and get PEV ownership. They aren't thinking short-term about gasoline consumption: if they wanted to do that they could subsidize efficient ICEVs instead.

So there's a trade off between ownership (number of cars) and selling batteries (total capacity).
- Subsidize too much battery and you risk selling too few cars and over-subsidizing BEV (which has cost offsets due to not having an engine).
- Subsidize too little battery and you risk selling too little capacity, encouraging opportunistic daytime charging or simply ending up with little in the way of public charging, which is important for BEVs.

The most important factor in getting people into PEVs is covering their commutes and to get sufficient coverage that means larger batteries. No doubt there was backroom dealings on the range of capacities, but I suspect that was at the low end too.

 

If the replacement cost of the 16 kWh Volt battery is not $4k then how much is it?

Prius PHV has 4 kWh pack so it should cost about 1/4 of the Volt. Most likely, the entire pack would not need to be replaced. Prius PHV has 1 main pack and 3 sub packs, each with 1 kWh. Replacing a sub pack should be like $500-$1,000.

 

PHV subpack cost will be $2000 +/-, just like current NiMH battery assemblies. No way in hell it will ever be $500.

 

I pretty much agree with your entire post. However, there should've been some conditions attached, to make sure a dirty cheap gas engine cannot be added to avoid using more battery. The size of the car should also be considered in the amount of the incentive.

We have Fisker Karma and Tesla Model S qualifying the same amount while Prius PHV is getting a third. Which plugin has the best chance of succeeding and ensuring the advancement of the battery? To me, it is:

1) Prius PHV
2) Model S
3) Karma.

Consider the upcoming Fusion and C-Max Energi plugins. They will have better MPGe and MPG rating than the Volt yet they'll qualify for less tax credit. They'll be much larger car than the Volt and have a clean Atkinson cycle gas engine as well. To me, Energi models deserve more tax credit than the Volt (or less to Volt).

Blended plugin hybrids like Prius PHV and Energi models will show superiority over series plugin like Volt.

 

Perhaps, you may be right.

However, USABC goal for plugin hybrid battery is $300 per kWh (@100k units / year). That's the OEM cost to manufacturer so if we multiply it by 2, it should be $600 at retail.

It has been reported that Toyota will be expanding the lithium battery production to 100,000 later this year. I know, that doesn't mean Toyota will achieve the USABC price goal but they'll be producing at that volume.

 

Most people don't care as much as we do. Their minds are on different things. Maybe when they drive an electrified vehicle, they'll get it, maybe they won't. I can see how some people would be turned off by Prius becaue it's so different and little soft on power. But I know better as the benefits outweigh the compromises.

 

The 250h was a close match with the Volt in size, weight, performance, and post-credit price. I included the Camry as a datapoint because it used essentially the same powertrain but in a different and somewhat larger body design. Since they were both sold in 2011 it is a fair comparison although 250h and Camry were at the tail end of their generation (250h cancelled and new Camry design in 2012). I acknowledged that GM likely has additional room for incremental improvement such as we are seeing in the new generation Camry and Fusion hybrids. The Volt is selling quite a bit better than the 250h and is a new architecture so I don't think it is likely to be cancelled anytime soon.

 

IIRC, Consumer Reports saying Leaf battery is $18k and Volt's is $8k. 24 and 16 kWh, right? PiP is 4kwh? Maybe PiP about $6k parts/labor.

 

If I am not mistaken, you have compared PiP battery-to-wheels wh/mile to Volt wall-to-wheels wh/mile. If IIRC, a full Volt battery is 10.4 kwh.

 

Ken said the production PiP (Japanese) take 3 kWh to charge from the wall. They have 220V plug and we'll be using 110v so there may be a slight charging loss.

 

CR is unreliable as a source of this type of information. As far as I have seen reported, the Volt number is roughly correct for 2011-2012. The Volt and LEAF cells are not all that different from each other so I would think the LEAF pack is closer to $12,000 than $18,000. I would think the PiP pack is closer to $3,000 than $6,000 but haven't seen much written about its cost per car to Toyota.

 

That cannot be right. Start with a very optimistic 15% charging loss, implying 2.55 kwh to the battery. 2550 wh/14 miles = 182 wh/mile. I believe 182 wh/mile in the JP 08 test cycle, but not the EPA.

 

Yea, that's JC08 cycle. EPA city (UDDS) is very similar to JC08. Prius PHV would use gas engine for EPA highway so those wouldn't be considered EV miles.

 

Sure that would make the Volt Wh/mi ~24% larger. I also was overly conservative about the Prius Plug-In by using 100% of the 4.4 kWh battery, rather than ~65% like the Volt, making the Prius Plug-In Wh/mi ~26% larger.

Anyhow, this works out to:
Volt: 10.4 kWh / 35 mi = 297 Wh/mi
Prius Plug-In: 3.5 kWh / 15 mi = 233 Wh/mi

Also, see my later post where it appears the Volt and Prius Plug-In are comparable in EV efficiency based on the European test cycle:
http://priuschat.com/forums/toyota-...-battery-replacement-costs-5.html#post1457406

 

The part number of a new battery is G9280-47131 and the list price is $9481

I have seen several used Lion batteries for $1500-$2500