Prius Plug-in Lithium Ion Battery Replacement Costs

My estimation is, that it costs between 3000 - 4000 EUR today and that in 10 years time, you will be able to buy it for 1/2 the price or upgrade it to double the capacity pack (at the same volume) for the same price as today's pack.

 

The target for lithium has been $450/kWh. Considering when the first warranties will expire and taking into account the overhead of the packaging and support hardware, I'd say under $4,000.

There of course is the optimism of plug-ins really taking hold in the meantime too, possibly driving the price down close to $3,000.

Aging of the pack itself will be harder to nail down than the regular Prius. Temperature will play even more of a role this time and there's many (like me) who will take advantage of opportunity charging while out & about.
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I have no clue what the launch cost will be. All I know is that Toyota has invested heavily in the battery tech. So at some point prior to replacement actually being needed, that price should be quite realistic. After all, the overall target has been a $3 to $5k premium... which gets a little screwy to calculate, since that's factory include verses stand-alone replacement.
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There is also the "cycle life" of the pack to consider, I don't think the numbers have been released, but for this chemistry it's typically 5,000 cycles. So, it depends on how often you fully charge and discharge the pack as well, to determine how long the pack will last. 1 charge/discharge pet day would be more than 13 years, twice/day about 7 years...

 

Let's say you are one of the people who claim that they don't ever plan to use any gas (which seems highly unlikely but it might be possible). Suppose they charge four times per day. This would mean, by your previous statement, that they would need a new battery in 3.5 years. They would have only gone 4 x 12 x 365 x 3.5 = 61,320 miles (plus certainly some 'unintentional' gas miles) and their battery would need to be replaced.

Wouldn't Toyota have to honor their battery replacement as being under warranty? How is Toyota protected from this type of customer?

[It won't be me, though, that's for sure... ]

 

Charging 4 times/day is very unlikely, as it will take 3 hours @120 per charge, or 1.5 hours @ 240. In the case of "opportunity" charging at 120V, that's 12 hours out of a possible 24, not too likely. In the case of 240v, you would have to have access to 240V EVSEs wherever you where stopped, also not very likely.

Most people who commute, are going to charge the PiP in their own home or garage at either 120 or 240, then drive to work, where they will be for 8-9 hours, some will be lucky enough to be able to get a charge at work. Add in sleeping time, it's hard to get more than 2 full cycles per day.

In other words, don't worry about a situation that's almost impossible... I also didn't mention driving time and traffic, which also eats into your possible 24 hour day as well.

 

What characteristics would the typical battery that needs to be replaced (5000+ cycles) have? Could you still get 50% of the original capacity? I wonder if the car would still work well enough to use just not with near the original capacity.

Spending that kind of money on a new battery might be better saved for a new car.

 

Think about how long a PHV will last, using the traction-motor far more than in the regular Prius. The engine will have a pretty easy life. You should be able to squeeze many more years out of it by popping in a new pack.
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The pack might be down to %70-%80, no one really knows. In a pure EV, that would be considered "end of life", in a PHEV, your just going to get fewer electric miles. The pack will have to be replaced when it can't power the electric motor any longer, as the gas engine is not enough for full performance in a Prius.

 

My target price of today for the PiP complete battery assembly is $7,000.
Having in to consideration that everything will be replaced, batteries and internal electronics.

 

yhea 7000
4500 in 10 years maybe

 

Replacement cost is anyone's guess. Toyota's price for prius nimh are much higher than production costs. For a good guess, toyota had been saying $1200/kwh in a car, which is higher than everyone else has been talking about. That makes it $5,280. We know ford has bought some of thier batteries for $750/kwh and wsj says the leaf is slightly less. Prices are getting driven down. If toyota is replacing them under warenty in 5 years, I doubt their cost will be more than $3000/4.4kwh pack, but idk what they will charge a customer. Many replacement parts have huge mark ups.

 

$6K is my guesstimate of replacement price before labor, that includes a healthy mark up for toyota and the dealer.

 

I'll go out on a limb and call it $10K, 4x the cost of a Gen II battery, even though it is apples (Nimh) vs. oranges (lithium).

 

I don't think that the general public has chosen to give the matter much thought. Most people do not think much beyond next week. To them, there is already too much change. The better to ignore and oppose it.

Well things do change. That is the only thing which we can depend upon. One of these things is that gasoline will get more expensive and eventually beyond the reach of most people (cost wise). Some other form of propulsion will need to replace the ICE. If it is not electricity, with its batteries, it will be something else which will take a whole lot of getting used to.

Most people will not take this step until they must.