Prius v (in 10 weeks) Outsells Chevy Volt for 2011

Only a few years is fortunate. Remember, I was blogging about now over a decade ago. The good word about PHV won't take long to spread.
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Agreed on both accounts. And if gas goes up this summer, as some accounts suggest, they will be poised to take off. Finally!

 

I agree many green drivers with families, may not find the Volt practical. I take 4 people out in my Volt frequently or lunch trips.. as long as the adults are not too tall and reasonably fit, they fit find. I put the other big guy up front.


And if green drivers are not interested in the "fun" factor they will go with a less expensive Prii and do well. But if the person is looking for "best in class power" or more of the fun factor the Volt gives them an alternative to a BMW, or Infinity, accura or mid-tier gas-eater, that might get them to be green on the side. With an EREV they can be a lead-foot and still not burn gas (for modest commutes). I actually think a wide range of choices is critical to moving most people off of oil.

 

Basically, the Tesla Model S with the largest pack option except it takes 45 minutes to recharge instead of 15. I completely agree with this goal. I'd buy one, even with the somewhat longer charge time.

The real challenge is driving down the price. That Tesla pack is probably around $40,000 and the car is around $80,000 before the tax credit. This won't go mainstream until the pack is $10,000 or less. Getting there by 2025 is a challenge unless there is a real breakthrough on the technology.

On the other hand, it's easier for me to imagine further evolutionary improvements to calendar and cycle life that allow a Volt-like pack to shrink from 16 kWh to 13kWh plus improved manufacturing efficiencies and economic scaling that drive the price of a 40 mile PHEV pack down to $3,000 by that timeframe.

 

The highlighted statement is simply too vague to be accurate. It's simply not true.

What IS true is the statement that..."If the Volt is used in its most efficient mode then it will save more gas than a Prius v."

Your broadstroke of 'most people' is too vague to be of any use. As soon as the Volt gets beyond a trip of 35 miles it becomes less gas-saving than a Prius v. Beyond 35 miles it's less gas-saving than an Insight, a Civic hybrid, a Camry hybrid or a Fusion hybrid.

I understand that in a total trip of say 50 miles the Volt will use less fuel than any of the the above but it's electric advantage disappears quickly as the trip approaches 80-100 miles.

 

Nope. It needs to be faster than that.

It's not the time, it's about the availability of chargers. 15 minutes means 4 cars per hour per charger and would mean very long waits at busy times. I've driven south on I295 on holiday weekends and the traffic heading north is nuts.

Another obstacle to it is simply the amount of electricity you need to charge a higher capacity battery rapidly. Even at your 15 minute fast charge you'd need to be able to supply over 250kW per charging station. That's not going to be a simple installation.

 

You are correct that I was too vague. Most people don't live in the US; my statement should have been restricted to US households.


So to correct my statement and make it precise, by "Most" I meant using EPA estimated MPG/MPGe, over 90% of US driving trips would use less gas in a Volt than in a Prius. The majority of trips and daily usage would be more efficient in total WTW/GTW energy usage as well.

Here is the justification.

Using EPA MPGe, the cross over point for a single trip for the Volt to be less efficient than a Prius V is over 100 miles on the highway (and for Gen III Prius is about 75Miles). If one wants to just talk about gas saved (not energy), the crossover points are more like 700miles and 150miles. One can also to consider energy-based with Wells-to-wheels having a .89 efficiency loss. Generation-to-wheels loss can be estimted as .54 efficiency losses, measured as KWH/(total Fossil fuel potential energy). With WTW/GTW, the cross over for energy Volt to use more than a Prius V is about 50 miles, and it may be worth looking at city modes more carefully, but the post is getting too long as it is).


Studies based on the recent Department of Transport’s 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS). About percent of all single-trip journeys were under 50 miles in length, with trips over 70 miles in length accounting for just one percent of all single-trip journeys.


The average daily drive total for urban-based cars was just 36.5 miles, while rural-based cars drove an average of 48.6 miles. 93 percent of cars drive drove less than 100 miles in the "study day". The number of drivers with > 100 miles "in city" during the study is so small its not measured in the study (guess they did not sample a taxi driver).

The following image (from 95% Of All Trips Could Be Made In Electric Cars, Says Study) shows the percentage of trips at various lengths.




See also this thread on PriusChat:
http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-h...-caould-made-in-electric-cars-says-study.html

 

The idealogy arguments for Volt are getting old. We know that real-world conditions wreck the on-paper estimates. The effect of range by winter make that overwhelming clear. And even if Volt was priced the same, how many of those supposed 90% would actually have a plug available?

Let's see real-world data instead.
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The phrasing was trips, not families or people, but sure I'll give that data too. And then redo with real-world milage numbers. ( The trip milage was already real-world data. )

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 33 percent of Americans rent and often don't have access to private garages. But not all of those people drive. 8% of US households don't have a car.


Large scale real-world MPG data is hard to get. Without separate highway/city splits can only use mixed rates.

On Fuelly
Prius V real world is 40 combined. (< 50 cars): 4.5% lower than EPA blended rate.
Prius Gen II (2011) is 47.5 for about 126 cars. (47.1 for 2010's): 6.0% lower than EPA
Volts on voltstats.net for ~380 cars, shows 70% EV (15% more than EPA) but 35MPG_CS. (5.4%) lower than EPA blended CS_mode.

No large-scale real-world data on EV range for volt since voltstats.net does not track that as its not reported by the car. Thus this data point is trickier to make real. My personal average (in Colorado) is still above 35, which is the EPA estimate. But just to be conservative I'll use 15% loss in EV range, 30miles, which is a larger reduction than what I've seen in range reduction summer to winter. Note this is 3X the loss from the ICE modes.


With the above "real world" numbers the pure gas cross over becomes about 250mi for a prius V, about 70 miles for Prius Gen III. For WTW/GTW energy it becomes about 70 and 50. (Note: There was an error in my previous computation as the prius V is 40 hw/ not 42 which is what I used in the last post).




These real-world number's don't substantially change the conclusions or statement.


But to account for the apartment dwellers I'll concede I might have been more useful to replace the word "most" with majority or to use 60% instead of 90%.

 

Well, I did see the video of the fellow who went 2,100 miles in his months of commuting in Volt and used 0.6 gal gas for about 3,000 MPG.

If they can sweeten up the chassis in next rev and lower the price somewhat and show good reliability, it will help.

We'll see how Volt sells this year. Business article shows Volt cleared of battery / fire problems and notes GM saying sales were limited due to production and disti issues.

I don't hate the Volt or want to see it fail, but the CEO's attitude last year stunk.

 

Volt may save a bit more gas but Prius v will save more energy despite being a larger more functional vehicle without the hassle of plugging in.

 

The prius V is the most efficient station wagon there is.

Seem you are desperate to bash the Volt. If you think plugging is a hassle, (if one does not live in an apartment), you've belong on FNN. Charging at home is way easier/nicer than buying gas in the cold or smelling like a gas station. I last put in gas before Halloween. I'm hoping to avoid buying gas again until after spring break. People buying a PiP will soon know how great it is...

Only small mind's feel the need to put down others as a means to support another. This whole thread is about trying to put the Volt down. Its not the right car for everyone. I may like the Volt, but that does not mean I cannot respect/support the Prius. I even recommend prius over volt when its appropriate. I just want people to keep the facts straights. If a friends wants a station wagon, I'll recommend the Prius V would be it as its the best on the market now.

 

I suggest you read the blog postings prior to Volt rollout. They did exactly that. The "vastly superior" attitude made smug look like a simple comment in comparison.

That's why focus on real-world data instead is so worthwhile.

Of course, we still have the lack of constructive Volt discussion problem. What in the world is going to happen as Prius sales rise and Volt sales flounder well under mainstream volume... or do you see 5,000 per month actually happening by sometime next year?
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Some will prefer to plugin while others will want the freedom NOT having to plugin.

Plugins have been over-hyped for a few years by ignoring the upstream emission and efficiency loss. The purpose of my post was to point out the benefits of hybrids over the plugins. It was not intended to put down the plugins because I promote Prius PHV.

Volt promoters (not directing at you) tend to be blind at hybrid advantages and feel electricity is emission free believing any electric mile is better than gas mile.

 

I'm not be surprised to learn there are small minded Volt owners who choose to bash the Prius. Does not make bashing right. I call people on it when I see them using incorrect data to put down another.

I provided analysis using real-world data, at your request, with no comment/response to that.

I do not have sufficient data to make any meaningful prediction on 2012 sales for either Prius or Volt. The car new status, GM/Obama haters and higher price is likely to make 5K Volts per month a long shot, but that's more intuition than analysis.

Sales are a statement of popularity, not quality or efficiency. I don't spend much time looking at them except to note trends and directions.
Old ideas are generally slow to give way. Innovation is a marathon, not a sprint.

 

On average, 2/3 of Volt miles will be on electric. Prius PHV will do at least 1/3. The most Volt can save will be 2x the gas.

If we consider Volt's 37 MPG and Prius PHV 49 MPG, Volt's gas saving will be even less. Then again, a compact car should be more efficient than a midsize.

 

I was using what DOE used in the petroleum equivalent formula. What is the correct value to you and why should it be different than DOE's?

 

Where were you in June 2010? The discussion at gm-volt was nothing like you described. I was there to defend the Prius so I totally understand your position here. I have respectively participated in constructive discussion here that was not possible over there. You can read them to get some idea.

 

Yet, the claim is made about Volt being more efficient. Neither gas nor electricity consumption data is provided either, only MPGe & MPG.

It's that cherry-picking which contributed heavily to hype of the past, from enthusiasts prior to rollout. Are we really going to just watch that happen again with new owners unaware that they are following that same path?

Few Volt sales means so-called efficiency vehicles like Cruze (30 MPG combined) & Sonic (28 MPG combined) will thrive. That competition from within is harmful. Toyota's non-plug choices are dramatically better. With v offering 42 MPG combined and 50 MPG combined from c, the big picture view is very different from GM.
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The point of the EV incentives where to stimulate innovation and R&D. Its not just about 1 vehicle, but the transition of the market. The HV incentives worked and almost every manufacture has an HV line. The EV lines are just starting and only time will tell if the investment produces the gas saving in the long term. The investment allows manufactures to charge more to help recover their costs for developing the advanced tech.

The tax credit for the PiP was really up to Toyota, they choose the battery package size, which is what drives the credit. They made a choice of modest investment in advancing tech such as battery pack, vs increasing their product cost.

Is the tax credit structure ideal.. I don't know I've not analyzed it. But the chance that congress found an optimal solution is small. But it is what it is, and then it was up to manufactures to respond.