I think Prius Plug-in might become a big success

I would be very surprised if anything less than the full 100% of the allocated USDM PiP sold in a rather short period of time.

 

I just had the Leviton EVSE installed in my Garage. It was the first residential installation for the installer. He had been to quite a number of dealers, some of whom complained that they were required to install the EVSE since they did not expect to sell any PiPs.

Toyota appears to be in a no loose situation. If the demand is low for the PiP, they will just make fewer. The PiP may have some value of bringing curious customers into the showroom who end up purchasing another Toyota product. If they sell a lot of PiPs, so much the better. The PiP makes sense to us, but probably not to everyone.

 

The Plug-in is so close to a "normal" Prius that those that don't buy the PiP will probably buy the regular Prius. If the USDM demand is less than 12,000 per year they will just not ship as many here and keep them in Japan.

To put it in perspective, 15,000 Prii were sold in November of this year which is usually a bad month for car sales. That is just Prii, and just in November. So 12,000 a year is 1,000/mo. If you ask 16 Prius owners or future Prius owners if they could benefit from 15miles of electric range, don't you think at least one will say yes?

Also more perspective, 34k+ Prii units were sold in Japan in November

 

I don't think people are going to argue too much that having a 15 mile electric is a good thing. I think what is holding a lot of people back is the pricing.

 

It doesn't stop people from buying ATP packages or solar packages.

 

There are a lot of Prius owners in California who lost their commuter lane stickers last July. I'm sure that many of them want that sticker back.

 

They have to come out with better colors and yes the price is hefty. If gas were $5 a gallon it would sell like hotcakes. People are notoriously short sighted and will buy according to gas prices. I remember when Gas was at it's highest a few years ago, people would stop me and ask questions about my Prius II, Do you like it? What kind of mileage are you getting? Does it have power?--- That stopped when gas went down again.
We will never know when a world event suddenly ends our cheap gas but if it does, PIP, Leaf, Volt, etc.. will command Ferrari prices.

 

The PiP is not going to get 15 miles EV range. A mile or 2 shy maybe. The ATP only accounts for 5% of the Prius. I guess safety is not on everyone's mind. I had the "BRAKE" warning on me twice. Both times were less than 30mph and had plenty of time to brake. I think the PiP will sell well if it has twice the current EV range. If it does, it will compete well with the Volt's 35 mile range. I would definitely pony up the 40 grand for one. For now, I'll just stick with poor man's plugin.

 

Let's not forget about all those who wished short-distance efficiency was better. PiP offers a dramatic improvement for them. My mom certainly would enjoy her 6-mile round-trip commute with a max speed of 50 mph with a PiP. (Coincidently, that's the same distance the founder of the Volt blog has.)

We really don't know how the charging-station emergence will playout either. I'll have access to recharging at work. That would provide twice the range.
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The PiP's greatest sales opportunity are all the happy prius drivers coming in to trade up. People buy prius for lots of different reasons, but those who do it for efficiency reasons foremost will be drawn to the plug-in (easily more than 10% of the prius purchasers so 1,000 Pips a month shouldn't be a problem).

I think the problem for Toyota is if conventional prius sales drop by the same number. What they really need is to draw new customers in that wouldn't have been buying a prius anyway, but will consider it now. I think that number will be very low, because of the blended driving its more of a super-prius than a partial EV.

Eventually I predict they will drop the non-plug-in models all together, if Pips get the same mileage in CS mode as a conventional prius.

 

Not everybody has access to charging stations at work, even well after EVs have saturated the market. I'd say majorities don't. A half charged battery will not have half the range. To get the full EV range, you have to drive it all in one shot. If your work is 7 miles away, without recharging, you'll run out of juice a mile or 2 before you get home. If you manage to get home on EV, the ICE will kick on to warm up the engine before you get the chance to use it therefore wasting all that gas on the pre-warm up. This is one of the reason why the Leaf left so many people stranded after parking at the airport without recharging.
PiP take 3 hours to charge on 110v. If you plug it in over night, it only takes advantage of 3 hours of $.05/kw out of that 7 hours. That 4.4kw pack will deplete quickly. You're left with charging it during the day at the highest rate. If PiP has twice the capacity, it would double the charge time. You can now take advantage of that $.05/kw for another 3 hours.
PiP will still give people range anxiety. PiP owners want to drive on electric as much possible. At the 10-15 mile mark, the anxiety will begin. The consequences won't be as bad as a Leaf. Instead of worrying about getting stranded, we're left with worrying if the gas engine's gonna kick on and waste gas on pre-warm up or getting only 50mpg instead of 99999mpg.

 

Though expensive, the PiP will take my frequent short trips and convert them from lowest-mpg to highest mpg-e.

I'm 1,000+ miles from the nearest introductory states (AZ and VA), so I'll wait until available here for awhile, but I expect to trade the 2010 by 2014 at the latest.

I think there will be plenty of people ready to buy PiPs. From HOV buyers to folks like me with short commutes and regular long trips.

 

Agree. With current pricing it is a marketing gimmick. Going by EPA numbers and charging once a day with current prices on gas you will not recover the extra costs.

 

With gas price edging towards $3/gal in N. CA, it will be a hard sell for the PiP.
Expecting more SUV and truck sales in 2012.

 

The regular model (no plug) will be around for many, many years to come still. Remember some of us have been waiting for the introduction of the plug for over a decade now.

We are well aware that its acceptance is what begins the phaseout of traditional vehicles. The raising of that bar is what pushes hybrids deeper into the mainstream.

Having anything more than a 120-volt connection available at home will be the norm for quite some time. The public charging-stations will likely be the introduction for most to 240-volt recharging, and their availability will will be rare for many years.

But you have to start somewhere. And to those having owned for a Prius for awhile, that next step is a very easy one. In 2 years when real-world data is abundant and some economies-of-scale have helped reduce price some, the purchase decision for the typical consumer will become a serious consideration.
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I consider having a Prius Standard or a PIP as an edge on most of the population. Similar to gold. In the meantime your getting greater range per gallon and in a emergency, your edge will be greater. In a severe gasoline shortage you may be the only person in the neighborhood who can drive to the grocery store. Farfetched? maybe. Possible? YES.