PIP vs Volt

I wonder if things may be different now that the Toyota Prius is not the 'only one in the crowd' of many EV vehicles.

I wouldn't feel confident in receiving a high resale value on my PiP.

 

Depends - on what the new PIP configuration is at the point of resale. If PIP is $30K with 30 mile range, 13 mile range PIP will suffer in resale value.

You are correct until this point. But in future, you may not be correct. Lot of companies/labs are specifically doing research for auto batteries. Kolibri (Vanadium based) for eg. has come to converted cars before coming to mobile devices.

We will also not see Nissan's gen 2 NMC battery in a mobile device at all. It will come to EVs with perhaps a 50% boost in range within next 3 to 5 years.

 

The resale value of my PiP will probably not matter much to me anyway because I do not expect to resell it. I am in for the long hall (and the life of the battery in 10 years is my main concern).

 

Just had a good laugh over Thanksgiving.
Purchased a 32" LCD TV when they first came out. I paid about $2,000.00 back than.

We saw a Black Friday Deal 32" LCD going for $199.00.

3-4 Years from now The 40K Leaf - Volt and advanced PIP will be reselling for less than 12K ??

 

That is true. The improvements in safety in 10 years can be very significant. That is one of the main reasons I think my wife has agreed that we need to replace the car I am currently driving.

 

Battery <> LCD.

The improvements don't proceed at the same speed.

My rule of thumb is "double density & half the price in 5 years". Compare to 18 months for electronics ...

So, in 5 years, Leaf will be $25K and go about 150 miles - and won't get a tax credit. May be larger battery options too.

 

There is no LCD monitor and the data is old but it still shows the trend for the computing and electronics.

A well designed / tested plugin car will have higher resale value. Just check out the Civic hybrid vs. Prius resale values of the no-plug hybrid. Time will tell for the plugins and you can sort of predict by the pattern / history of each car manufacturer.

 

I see the plug-in option for Prius becoming more common due to price dropping and market acceptance. At the same, I see energy density increasing, which will result in modest capacity gains... kind of like the the efficiency improvements of the past we've already seen from Prius. The next generation will simply offer more at the same price. I don't see the demand for sacrificing storage to deliver a significant capacity increase. That large area above the false floor for cargo is a major sales draw. Prius is well known for being practical, not just being clean & efficient.

There's the issue of timing too. The tax-credit already has an expiration date. Government budget shortfalls could make that come sooner. This approach already takes that into consideration. The goal is to achieve high-volume sales to meet CAFE regulations as well as reduce our demand on fossil fuels.

It's a challenge balancing time & priorities. PIP strives to deliver.
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FWIW I would not consider a Volt if your typical commute is so short. As long as the batteries remain a dominant cost in PHEVs, you want to buy the one with the smallest battery you can which meets your daily needs. Every day you drive it without completely draining the battery, you've basically paid more money for battery you don't need. Unlike an EV, where you need to size the battery/range for the longest trip you plan to take w/o charging, a PHEV should be sized to just cover your standard daily routine (to optimize value anyway).

Its a lot like comparing an off grid to a grid-tied solar system. When you are off grid you have to size your system for the worst case scenario of max usage and cloudy days (or be prepared to ration). For a grid tied system with net metering, you size your system to be no more than your average daily usage, as you don't get any financial benefit from making more power than you use. Anything less than that and you are assured to get the max benefit, anything more and you are losing money.

In that sense I think Toyota went exactly right route. Many more people will get the maximum daily benefit out of the 15 mile range, than will do so for the Volts extended range.

 

That would be true if tax credit didn't depend on battery size.

Also, I'd want to drive as much as possible without gas - so a larger battery is much better than a smaller one.

 

I think that the fact that the Volt gets 30 mpg when the battery runs down vs the Prius 50 mpg makes the Prius a much more practical option. If you are using the car only for commuting and you are going more than 15 miles but less than 40 miles, then the Volt makes sense. However anytime you go more than about 70 miles without recharging the Prius wins on operating cost. I use my car for a variety of purposes that include lots of short trips, making the PIP a great choice.

 

MPG. That's an interesting concept. But I'm tired of using any gallons no matter how many miles I get. I would really like to order a PIP and replace my '08 Prius, but ONLY because we have total electric and have a "Wind Choice" option from PSO here in Tulsa. However I made a promise to myself that I would never buy another gasoline-powered vehicle again. I was disappointed that the Volt had no CNG or LNG option and am extremely disappointed that the PIP doesn't either. Maybe I'll convert an old VW to electric or an S10 for around town. I keep hoping that the Nat Gas Act of 2011 will gain some traction but, despite it's logic as (if nothing else) a matter of national security, the oil lobby has managed to keep it from passing. Our dependence on the Persian Gulf remains a continuing fact. Sadly, the time that we've bought with boots on the ground there has been completely wasted. If my Prius were totaled tomorrow I guess I'd try and find a CNG Civic, but it would have to be a used one since the new 2012's aren't available yet. A gasoline-powered society that has so much NG that the oversupply has driven the price to a quarter of what it was in 2008. Very sad.

 

In your scenario, the Volt would get an EPA estimated 40 mpg (not 30) on the highway and the Prius would get 48 (not 50).

 

Here was my personal driving today (Saturday) in my Volt:

Drove to brunch at a restaurant near my old neighborhood and then back home. Drove to shopping nearby and got 1.5 hours free opportunity charge in parking lot and then back home. Drove to San Francisco for dinner with friends and then back home.

59.2 battery miles
60.7 hybrid miles
119.9 total miles
1.42 gallons gasoline

42.75 mpg hybrid mode primarily at 65 mph
84.4 mpg overall

$1.22 home charging (13.5 kWh (120V) at effective $.09 per kWh)
$5.54 premium gas at $3.90 per gallon
$6.76 total fuel cost in Volt

estimated 2.4 gallons at 50 mpg in Prius
$8.88 regular gas at $3.70 per gallon for Prius

In a PiP I would have gotten something like:

26 miles battery
94 miles hybrid
1.88 gallons of gas at 50 mpg

63.8 mpg overall

$0.32 home charging (3.6 kWh at effective $.09 per kWh)
$6.96 regular gas at $3.70 per gallon
$7.28 total fuel cost

So, my day of driving 119.9 miles works out to $6.76 in the Volt with 1.42 gallons of gas for 84.4 mpg versus an estimated $7.28 in a PiP with 1.88 gallons of gas for 63.8 mpg or $8.88 in a non-plug Prius with 2.4 gallons of gas at 50 mpg.

YMMV.

 

Doing so would make both vehicles those versions even more of a niche and drastically cut down on their cargo room and versatility. I doubt it'd be even economically viable for either company to cover the costs of developing such a variant of such niche vehicles.

Since you mention the CNG Civic, have you ever looked at the trunk of one? I didn't know it was THAT tiny until I looked at a previous gen Civic GX at Green Drive Expo.

The '12 Civic CNG car I saw at the SF Auto Show also had a tiny trunk. A lot of people don't realize it/have no idea. When some folks were sitting in it, I asked to pop the trunk to confirm. I pointed it out to them after they got out and they were shocked.

 

Here is a picture I found online with a laptop for scale: http://0.tqn.com/d/alternativefuels/1/0/b/N/-/-/ag_civicgx_trunk.jpg

 

Your Volt figures are better than EPA estimates. I would imagine the same if you had Prius or PiP.

Your electricity rate is also lower than the national average. Use higher electricity rate and Volt will make less sense.

You are still comparing a compact to a midsize car. Compact car should be more fuel efficient and cost less to purchase.