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70 Miles Is Dividing Line For Volt, Prius Plug-in

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by NYPrius1, Oct 21, 2011.

  1. NYPrius1

    NYPrius1 Active Member

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    Link to Full Article 70 Miles Is Dividing Line For Volt, Prius Plug-in - AutoObserver From Edmund's

    The 2012 Chevrolet Volt extended-range plug-in hybrid has lower fuel costs than the 2012 Toyota Prius Plug-in hybrid if the driver regularly drives 14 to 70 miles between recharges, while the Prius Plug-in is a cheaper ride at longer recharging intervals, according to green-vehicles industry analyst John Gartner. At 70 miles, the two cars are even at $4.75 in fuel expenses, while the Prius Plug-in driver would be at about $1 ahead of Volt-owning neighbors if each vehicle was driven 110 miles a day, Gartner found. For the first 14 miles, both vehicles would be running on power from their grid-charged batteries and their fuel costs would be the same, said Gartner, a senior analyst at Colorado-based clean-technology markets research firm Pike Research.
    Gartner’s fuel-cost report, related in a Pike blog post earlier this week, indicates that many potential plug-in electric vehicle buyers may compare the Prius Plug-in to the Volt when the rechargeable Toyota hybrid debuts in 14 U.S. states next spring. Industry watchers expect the two cars to be fierce rivals in the infant plug-in market segment and Toyota seems confident its plug-in hybrid will outsell Chevrolet’s. Toyota Division Group Vice President and General Manager Bob Carter in September estimated that dealers wills sell about 15,000 plug-in Priuses during its first year. Chevrolet dealers through the first nine months of this year have sold just 3,900 Volts, though the automaker claims sales numbers have been constrained by limited supply.
    The Volt might appear to get a marketplace boost from its $7,500 federal tax credit versus a $2,500 credit for the Prius Plug-in because of its markedly smaller battery pack. Battery capacity is the metric the federal government uses to determine the size of a rechargeable vehicle’s tax credit. But the Volt’s higher sticker price – it starts at $39,995 versus $32,760 for the Prius Plug-in – ends up making it about $2,000 more expensive than the Toyota. Additionally, Prius plug-in drivers will get to drive solo in some states' high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, while Volt drivers will have to wait until mid-2012, when the 2013 model is released with an engine-generator retuned to reduce emissions enough to qualify for single-occupancy carpool lanes. While those comparisons will help consumers make their choice, Gartner believes that the most important factor will be fuel economy and fuel savings.
     
    #1 NYPrius1, Oct 21, 2011
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  2. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    The dividing line depends on the ratio of the price of gas to the price of electricity.

    The dividing line is above 15 miles and below 70 only if a gallon of gas is 45 times more expensive than a kWh of electricity.

    At 20 times ($3.60 for gas, $0.18 for electricity), the dividing line is between 24 and 39.

    If you include the price difference in the cars, the volt niche narrows to 15-57 miles between charges, at 45 times; and is gone by 20 times.

    If you consider the cordless Prius as well. The Prius plug-in's niche is below 17 miles between charges with gas more than 27 times the price of electricity; the Volts niches is between 16 miles and 36 and 51 (depending on prices of gas and electricity) AND gas somewhere above 36 times more expensive per unit than electricity; The regular Prius gets all the rest of the survey space.

    Assumptions: 250k miles life of the cars, no difference in other costs.
     
    #2 Corwyn, Oct 21, 2011
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  3. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Reality check -

    One reason why most will choose PiP (PPi) over Volt - Wouldn't be embarassed to put your adult friends in back seat of PiP. Would have to drive around with rear hatch open with me in backseat of Volt.

    Seems to be a lot of hype in Edmunds articles. See the article predicting Prius becoming Toyota's best seller? In the US, no time soon. Japan, maybe.

    Last 2 months, Camry, Altima,... sold 24k ish units each. Prius ~ 9.5k sold.

    source - http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/10/us-best-selling-cars-september-2011.html

    Typical US drivers are fixated on Camry, Fusion, Altima, Accord, Sonata, etc... Maybe due to 1) Can get by with 3 adults in back seat. 2) Americans prefer 4 door sedans with trunks 3) 4 door Accord LX - $21,800 sticker (what you pay).

    Prius - 1) 2 adults, 1 child in rear seat, 3 adults, no 2) It's a hatchback 3) $23,800 is discount price for Prius Two

    No disrespect to Prius, still an amazing car.

    >>>>> Prius v will sell pretty well. Looks sharp.
     
    #3 cycledrum, Oct 21, 2011
  4. dhchiang

    dhchiang New Member

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    #4 dhchiang, Oct 21, 2011
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  5. Acre

    Acre New Member

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    Good analysis.
    Electricity rates vary widely in the US. A friend of mine retired up in Siskiyou county, CA partly to be on the Oregon grid and pay 0.08 per kWh instead of the 0.15 - 0.45. rate the rest of the state has.
     
    #5 Acre, Oct 21, 2011
  6. Roadburner440

    Roadburner440 Member

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    #6 Roadburner440, Oct 21, 2011
  7. JimboPalmer

    JimboPalmer Tsar of all the Rushers

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    I think it is a mistake to assume they will use the same amount of electricity in the first 14 miles, which this article does.

    Neither the article, nor the blog it seems based on, notes that the Volt does not use the $3.50 gas mentioned, it uses Premium at $3.80
     
    #7 JimboPalmer, Oct 21, 2011
  8. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Sure toyota says the phv will get 87mpge, and the epa says the volt will get 94 mpge, but really this is a small amount of extra money for energy the phv will use. i don't think its that bad of an assumption.

    Definitely you should scale the gas costs by this factor, but you still will be around break even at 70 miles. I don't think that will be the deciding factor, the cars are really different.
     
    #8 austingreen, Oct 21, 2011
  9. cycledrum

    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    #9 cycledrum, Oct 21, 2011
  10. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

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    #10 Sergiospl, Oct 24, 2011
  11. giora

    giora Senior Member

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    What is the dividing line with respect to GHG emissions I wonder?
     
    #11 giora, Oct 24, 2011
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