In two weeks...

I don't know what boat facilities are like near you, but if there were a tsunami headed here, I wouldn't expect to able to get a boat out of the water before it arrived. Just not enough lead time. Of course, around here, 80% of the boats are kept on land that wouldn't be safe from a tsunami anyway. The only question would be whether it got trashed in the water, or on land.

 

Well a broken clock is right twice a day

 

My psychic senses are tingling too. I've got a strong feeling that within two weeks the sun will rise, the wind will blow, and rain will fall. There're probably be a tide or two also along the coastal regions.

Earthquakes at 6 or better on the Richter Scale are considered "large", and the USGS marks them red in its list, below. The list is for the last 7 days, and there were two quakes better than 6, and dozens better than 4. They're as ordinary as sunrise.

So Amm0 is right, there will be a "large" quake in the next 14 days - probably several. Might even be one better than 7 that makes the papers. The odds favor it, even without psychic ability.

Latest Earthquakes in the World - Past 7 days

 

Oh yeah, NOW you say that. Well put up a number, bra, otherwise you haven't said anything. 7? 8? 10? Name it.

 

For a prediction to be meaningful, you need to be more specific than "large" and you need to be more specific than "somewhere in the world." For example: a quake between 7.5 and 8 centered within 25 miles of Ankara within two days of October 17.

"A big quake somewhere in the world in the next 2 weeks" is just silliness. There's nothing wrong with silliness. It's just not a "prediction."

I predict that within the next two weeks I will see a girl I'd marry if she'd have me, but she wouldn't, even if I had the nerve to speak to her, which I won't.

 

I predict within the next two weeks somebody will start a thread on the board asking what sort of tires they should get.

 

The notion that tidal forces affect earthquakes sounds reasonable enough. However, all scientific attempts to establish a connection have failed utterly and completely. Conclusion: The moon is useless for predicting earthquakes. Earthquakes are common enough, however, that if you cast your net wide enough, you'll catch one.

 

Tidal action affects the earth's crust 24/7, trillions of tons of water imparting massive waves of energy into not so solid rock hour after hour after hour; that the steady drumbeat of tides could shake loose an earthquake is quite possible. But the energy differential between a syzygy tide, perigree tide, apogee tide, perhelion tide, aphelion tide and "normal" tides is insufficient to argue that earthuakes are more likely during those kinds of tides - it'd be like arguing that riding a bicycle along a hundred miles of roadway with two broken beer bottles per mile will get a flat tire right at the spot in one of the miles that an extra shard of glass happened to be. It may very well get a flat tire somewhere in the hundred miles, perhaps several flats, but there's no predicting that because one of the miles has an extra shard of glass that that's where it'll sustain a flat tire, that that shard of glass caused the puncture.

 

I think we all missed the point: Bob was just being silly.

 

All the more reason to be thankful these posts don't count

 

There's a sort of urban legend that says unusually warm weather can precede a large earthquake, as if one were correlated with the other.

Anecdotally, it does seem a few larger earthquakes in the past here coincided with a warm spell.