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87 MPG(e): Toyota Confuddles PC experts

Discussion in 'Gen 1 Prius Plug-in 2012-2015' started by SageBrush, Sep 16, 2011.

  1. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    ^^ I agree, if you are talking about the EPA cycle.

    This brings us back to the reason I started the thread -- how in the world did the Prius end up with 87 MPG(e) ?
     
  2. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Even Popular Mechanics (Mar_2011) punted on this exact calculation for the Volt. It is apparently a complex, behind the scenes "tricky sticker" EPA calc (PM's words, not mine). We do however know for Volt 2011 model:

    VOLT 2011
    MPG (Hybrid) = 37 Combined City+Highway on window sticker
    MPGe (EV) = 93 Combined City+ Highway on window sticker
    Utility Factor = 58% (of miles typical expected driven in EV mode)
    MPGe Combined Composite = 60 MPGe on window sticker

    What I think we know for Prius PHV (pls advise if otherwise):

    PRIUS 2012 PHV (expected)
    MPG (Hybrid) = 49 Combined City+Highway
    MPGe (EV) = ?? Combined City+ Highway (not yet disclosed)
    Utility Factor = ??% (not yet disclosed)
    MPGe Combined Composite = 87 MPGe on sticker(Toyota estimate)

    If we assume Prius EV MPGe is ~120 and utility factor is 50%, then we could get about 85 MPGe as the average of 49+120. Right?
     
  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    ^^ Right, but Dennis (USBseawolf) posted UF graphs showing 15 AER miles as 30%.

    Btw, if I am calculating correctly the UF for the Volt has to be less than 50% for the end MPG(e) to be less than 65 = (93+37)/2
     
  4. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...apparently the calculation method is more complex.
    Try this: MPG = 1/((frac1/MPG1)+(frac2/MPG2)) ???
    Sometimes you blend by reciprocals, not sure yet if this is such as case.
    but even that is not total explanation, apparently they are doing it for city and highway too. There is a method number J??? they are using.
     
  5. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Now that I think about this a bit more, I suspect Dennis figured it out a long time ago: 87 MPG(e) is ONLY the blended (charge depleting) part of the EPA cycle. To compare plug-in Prius to say the Volt's 60 MPG(e), the calc will look like this for the Prius:

    87*UF + 49(1-UF)

    BUT, the UF will not be based on 15 miles, but rather however far the Prius ran on the EPA cycle until the battery was depleted. Is this *really* supposed to make any sense to Joe Consumer ? LOL
     
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  6. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Oh -- you are right! How stupid of me. The calc is weighted by UF, and uses GPM rather than MPG. This way, if Volt EV UF is 58% then MPG(e) is about 57 -- close enough to suggest the only error is the UF.

    So, the combined CD and CS plug-in Prius MPG(e) will be
    one (1) divided by the quantity: (1/87)*UF + (1/49)*(1-UF)

    Again though, the UF graph will use the range from the CD portion of the testing which in some cars will be pure EV, and in other cars will be blended (Electric + petrol).

    <<shakes head>>

    I'll take another go at the total, combined MPG(e) using GPM and assuming
    1. 20% charging losses
    2. energy/distance the same whether using petrol or electricity
    3. 15 mile AER, 30% AER UF
    4. 112 MPG(e) (pure electric)

    1/((0.3*1/112) + (0.7*1/49)) = 59 MPG(e)

    How amusing
     
  7. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I interpret Toyota to be saying 15 miles *all electric*, not 15 miles blended. I expect the window sticker to show about 19 miles blended at 87 MPG(e), and the stated 49 MPG in CS mode. So the drops of gasoline in the CD part of the test are about 4 miles worth.

    The CD calc will be about
    1/((.79*1/112) + (.21*1/49)) = 88 MPG(e)
    Where 0.79 is 15/19 miles pure EV

    An alternative scenario that also calculates out to about 88 MPG(e) for the CD testing is 12 miles electric and 3 miles petrol for a "blended EV range" of 15 miles. If I knew how much of the pack was in use I could take a stab at which is correct.
     
  8. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...wonder if Volt_2012 will have >60 too
     
  9. gwmort

    gwmort Active Member

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    This is a sample EPA label for a blended PHEV, like the plug-in prius.

    See the white part of the driving range bar labeled gas + electricity with the little mark pointing up to the first box with a number? Take out the 65 and replace it with the 87 for the PHV, also shorten that white portion from 50 Miles to 15 miles. Then take out the 41 from the second box and replace it with the 49 for the PHV and you have a good rough idea of what your EPA sticker will look like.

    I'd be willing to bet these are the numbers Toyota is thinking about as it releases info to the public. Anything to far off of this format would open them up to attacks of unreasonable expectations like GM got.

    Also note my favorite part "All electric range = 0 miles".
     
  10. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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  11. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    The 15 miles described in the press release is "true EV operation and performance". It is not the blended range.

    The blended range should be higher (could double) depending on how much gas got blended running through the test cycles.
     
  12. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Even if we use the 15 miles as the blended range and apply UF, we get this:

    Column 1
    0 Prius PHV
    1
    2 City UF 0.31
    3 Highway UF 0.31
    4 Blended City 87
    5 Blended Highway 87
    6 City 49
    7 Highway 49
    8
    9 Combined Composite 56.67


    Column 1
    0 Volt
    1
    2 City UF 0.58
    3 Highway UF 0.58
    4 EV City 95
    5 EV Highway 90
    6 City 35
    7 Highway 40
    8
    9 Combined Composite 56.87


    If you round them up, the combined composite figure for both is 57 MPGe.
     
  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Blended mode is the term for a phev charge depleting range, if that vehicle can not run the tests without using gasoline. Blended PHEVs do not get pure electric range. It is this figure that toyota should be refering to when they state electric, or charge depleting range. The range and fuel economy are highly dependant on software. Double range does not make any sense at all with a 4.4kwh battery unless they are keeping the engine on all the time.
     
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  14. gwmort

    gwmort Active Member

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    I don't think that will prove to be the case. If they tried to give a pure EV range they would need to put a huge asterisk next to it and give all the exceptions when they might still use gasoline, or explain why they have to have the EV-city mode which depletes the battery faster to stop the use of gasoline sooner.

    I think you'll find that Toyota has invented a new kind of car; I 'd say a two mode hybrid except for the bad experiences GM had with the term.

    You have mode 1 where it will operate as a hybrid with most of the power coming from the battery and small amounts of mechanical assist available on demand.

    And you have mode 2 where it will operate as a conventional hybrid with most power coming from the fuel tank with limited electrical assist with regen power and what not.

    The EPA is going to give you those two numbers, displayed on a sticker format like the one you found that I linked.
     
  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    ^^ 'EV' is ambiguous here, since it could mean the charge depleting (CD) part of the test which in the corded Prius' case is blended driving.

    I do not expect the petrol miles contribution to be far off from 25% of the total blended miles, given a final result of 87 MPG(e) for this part of the EPA test cycle.

    My leading two guesses:
    12 pure EV miles and 3 petrol miles, blended to 15 miles CD range; or
    15 pure EV miles and 4 petrol miles, blended to 19 miles CD range.

    The arithmetic is based on 49 MPG and 112 MPG(e) (plug-wheel) pure electric.

    12 pure EV miles seems too low, unless Toyota is keeping a lot of the battery pack in reserve to reach the 150k mile service life PZEV requires. We know that an owner cycling of the battery takes 3 hours at 120 volts, but I am not sure what the amperage is. Assuming 10 - 13 amps and 20% charging losses, the battery takes up between 2.88 - 3.744 kwh. Each pure EV mile is then 240 - 312 wh/mile if 12 pure EV miles are assumed. I doubt much more than 240 wh/mile (and tend to think less) so only 12 pure EV miles is possible but at the edge of likely.

    I like 15 pure EV miles using at most 3.744 kwh from the battery, I just am not sure it is correct. This works out to 250 wh/mile, and 85% DoD.
     
  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    My original calc used MPG instead of the correct GPM. I do agree with you that the composite MPG(e) of the corded Prius is going to be very close to the Volt, I imagine around 2-3% better.

    I don't think it actually *means* anything useful in the physical world, but it is a funny black eye for the GM marketing department to try and explain away. I imagine that most people who bother to understand the similar results at all, will qualitatively just say "CS mode in the Volt sucks."
     
  17. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    According to the actual procedure:

    Determine the vehicle's Actual Charge-Depleting Range, R cda. Determine separate range values for FTP-based city and HFET-based highway driving, then calculate a combined value by arithmetically averaging the two values, weighted 0.55 and 0.45 respectively, and rounding to the nearest whole number.

    For vehicles that use combined power from the battery and the engine before the battery is fully discharged, also use this procedure to establish an all electric range by determining the distance the vehicle drives before the engine starts, rounded to the nearest mile. ​


    FTP does not exceed 60 mph and it is only 11 miles so it has to be repeated until the PHV battery runs out.

    [​IMG]

    HFET also does not exceed 60 mph.

    [​IMG]

    Based on that, I'd say Prius PHV has AER=15 miles.
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    We will see when the numbers are out. You were claiming it was much more efficient because it was blended, but gee now you say it no longer will do that. The demo phv couldn't accelerate for the test without turning on the engine. I am assuming this is the same. Could be wrong but 87 mpge sounds like they are still planning on using some gas.
     
  19. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Man, that is poorly worded LOL

    The ECE test says a battery is depleted when ICE is used below a threshold speed.

    Doesn't it sound though like an 'all electric range' may have an ICE contribution ?
     
  20. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    What does efficiency have to do with test protocol ?

    As an example, Volt will always be at an increased disadvantage in efficiency in cold ambient temps because the ICE waste heat cannot be utilized smartly. This will never show up in current EPA testing protocols.