Prius Plug-In Production Car to be Revealed On Press Day 13 Sept

Utility Factor is the statistical probability that an average vehicle will be driven less than its CD range on any given day. IMHO, it's a bogus methodology to apply to determining vehicle efficiency.

Using 35 miles, 58% of all drivers on any given day could drive a Volt 100% EV. Since actual Volt (and PHV) buyers are a self-selecting group, it's ridiculous to use a statistic derived across the entire population to determine a generic "MPGuf" number and pretend it means anything. Publish the EV range and efficiency, the gasoline efficiency, and be done with it.

Does Toyota have input into what goes on the sticker? They may choose not to show pure EV numbers depending on how they compare to the Leaf/Volt. The blended sticker prevents direct comparisons.

 

I'm sorry, I may have not been clear. I'm not suggesting the MPGe number will be 125, I'm stating the car will burn gasoline (liquid fuel) at a rate of 0.8 gallons per 100 miles (125 mpg) during the blended PHV operation on top of the electricity being consumed. The combined figure for that operation would be much lower.

Its just speculation of course, no need to quibble on details when the real information will be available soon. Regardless of the methodology I more or less agree with the results you got.

 

I would guess Toyota has a much input as everyone. EPA did 3 focus groups and a expert panel report before doing the internet survey for the labels.

A lot of information are available here. One funny thing I read was the use of the term "Discharge" was not favored by female participants across all groups.

Regarding using statistic to get the composite MPGe, isn't it the only fair way to compare? Based on the initial real-world numbers, Volt owners put 66% of the miles on electricity. Therefore the UF is 0.66 for the early adopters. As Volt become available nationwide, that number should become closer to 0.58.

 

Well, it's fair in the sense of being an objective measure, but I suspect that it's going to be pretty misleading because of the huge difference between CD and CS driving.

 

Yes, there is a huge difference between CD and CS which is why the objective measure is important.

If we use UF=0.66 for the Volt, it came out to 61.39 MPGe. The difference between early adopter and what statistics predicts for general public is 4 MPGe (57 vs. 61). 7% not really a huge difference.

The same can apply for Prius PHV early adopters too. They may charge more often (due to much shorter recharge time) further raising the real-world UF.

 

Amusing calcs, too bad the MPG(e) calc is weighted down with a political fudge factor to make it physically meaningless. I also agree with mfennel's criticism of the UF, since it ignores buyer self-selection.

I told the Volt fans this exact same criticism when they were spouting the '70% of drives are under 40 miles' nonsense, but for some reason they kept on //

FWIW, if the UF (with all its warts) is applied to the PiP and Volt without the silly fudge factor, the Volt consumes 80% of the petrol of the PiP. Three times the battery size, around $10k more expensive, and only 20% petrol savings. Just one more example of the inefficiency of the Volt even before mentioning the miserable energy efficiency and (relative to the Prius) high emissions of pollutants.

 

Somewhere (anon source) I heard it may be 15 miles instead of 13 miles on electric......

 

If the reveal is strictly going to be an online feed - I suggest you all stay off line, and trust ME to pass the info on to you all.



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Just one more day.

 

24 kWh/100mi when a similarly heavy Leaf is 32 in the city cycle? Not feeling it. IF they report a full city cycle (it's not clear they will), I expect 10 unless the battery size or utilization exceeds previous reports.

That has to be the best fanboi spin I've read in some time. They will drive more EV because the battery is smaller! Got it.

 

mfennel, did you see this post earlier in the thread?

They are assuming that because the All electric miles on the PHV will be ZERO, that the electric consumption in the blended EV-esque mode will be much lower (maybe 15-17 kwh/100 mi) because at the same time it is burning gas to augment it (this sticker shows 1 gal/ 100 mi, I think the PHV will see 0.8 gal/ 100 mi).

Its pretty plausible if you think about it, I mean I'm sure the Volt's numbers would be better too if you could just filter out the energy use during accelerating and highway driving.

As for the range they can probably set it to whatever they want just by adjusting how much gas is burned in EV-esque mode.

 

That comment was made in respect to J2841 standard that assumes you'll charge only once (overnight) per day.

Say, you have to make four 10 miles trips. With a full overnight charge, Volt owner will likely charge only one more time (assuming charging stations are available at each stop) at a public station to make it back home with pure EV miles. Case like this is why multiple charges increase the UF in the alternative graph.

For a Prius PHV, the owner will charge four more times (every chance he gets) to cover all the trips with just electricity. This is why Toyota has been saying that charging more often with a smaller battery is better. You'll notice that the alternative UF graph is much higher than J2841 graph in the lower EV range since having the bigger battery does not need or encourage multiple charges (rather charge it at home).

Therefore, I believe the real-world UF for Prius PHV will be higher (more so than Volt in term of percentage) than the J2841 prediction.

Edit: gwmort, thanks for the above post to address the point I missed.

 

I think you'll find that is not the case. I think the biggest factor on whether to plug in or not is whether the available charging is level 1 or 2. If a level 2 charger is available there is no reason why anyone that can plug in wouldn't, its easy and convenient. If its a level 1 charger and I have to go to the trunk and unwind the cord and then stow it again later I might skip it at the first and third stop to avoid the hassle.

 

Actually, I'm SURE I will find that buyers self-select battery size to their specific use and charging opportunities.

Put another way, PIP buyers who travel much over twice the EV range on work-days already know they can charge at work, or have an expectation of doing so in the near future. And frankly, it makes a whole lot more sense to have a plug at work that a bunch of partially utilized batteries dragged around. Much cheaper, too.

 

I hear you but that sticker has a provision for all electric miles AND the PHV has an EV mode button AND might even be able to do the city cycle in pure EV. It seems like they (EPA) left room for the automaker to present the data as they wish. The alternate PHEV sticker is broken up in all electric range and CS range.

My reads of various tests here suggests 14mi or 260wh/mi for a smartly but not obsessively driven PHV, about like going 50 miles in a Volt or 96 miles in a Leaf, both of which are done regularly. In fact, Wayne Gerdes recorded 260 at 55 mph in a Volt. Pretty miserable efficiency, huh?

Where do you think people will be charging these cars? Have you ever seen a charging station on LI? Or are you going to be unwinding your EVSE and an extension cord at Starbucks? Fortunately, our hypothetical Volt owner can easily travel the necessary 40 miles. I did 35 @ 70mph with the AC on (ECO, granted) recently so better keep it at 65.

Sorry, but your argument still reads of rationalization. You guys would be over the moon if Toyota was talking 20 or 30 or 40 miles for a reasonable price. I do agree that capacity above needed (like a ridiculous 300 miles in a loaded Tesla S) is a waste but 40-50 seems like a pretty decent sweet spot and the SAE numbers in J2841 bear that out.

 

May I? eep:

23km on a charge
(in a few hours to confirm...)

And keeping trunk/cargo almost as the HV!
Oh heck...3 litres less

 

23km = 14.29m. i"m hoping for a boost to 20m.

 

I will say 66 mpgE due to tweeks I expect in the battery/inverter system that will bring it up 5%.

 

And no doubt you and every other driver cranks out Gerdes level numbers in their Volt

Since I can hit 75 mpg in my Prius at 55 mph, I'll guess Wayne manages 80 mpg. Figure 36% of fuel energy content reaches the wheels, then the Prius energy consumption is 34000 wh * .36/80 = 153 wh/mile. Yeah, your Volt, even in Gerdes' hands, is an energy pig.