Will Prius Resale Values Plummet in Cali??

Since marketshare continues to grow and the potential for growth is strong, the demand for used models shouldn't drop. After all, they didn't in the past when the next generation was rolled out.
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Car pool lane might be an issue in CA, but not in MD. I think they used to have that status in VA, too, but no longer. Demand is still strong out here and the traffic is nearly as bad as CA. If there was demand just for a car pool dodge, then yes. If people appreciate the fuel savings and reduced pollution levels, then no. Report back on that when they lose the status and the plug-ins come out. That would be interesting to note.

 

I'd say no.

Before I left CA in late 09 (came back a few weeks ago), that "$4000" premium for HOV sticker equipped Prius wasn't that big. It also got pretty small/smaller as stickers approached expiration. It's not like it all went away at once, the day the stickers expired.

(I looked into resale values briefly when I'd thought about selling my CA HOV sticker equipped 2nd gen before my move to WA state in late 09 and somehow buying a new 3rd gen in WA when they still had no sales tax deal on hybrids. I ended up deciding against it.)

I don't think I have any real interest in the PHV Prius right now. My 2nd gen still works fine and I'm only at ~54K miles. I haven't been following what sort of quantities the PHV Prius will be shipping in, but I'd wager it'll be far less than that of the regular Prius, initially.

Yes, some might trade for a Volt, but I suspect many Prius buyers won't even consider the Volt because of its high price tag,poor CS mileage, seating for only 4 and unknown reliability (GM reliability is overall far inferior to Toyota).

I definitely wouldn't buy a new Prius now and sell in 6-9 months down the road. You will take a bath on the resale value hit and sales tax unless gas prices skyrocket when it comes times to sell. On this note, it seems that used Prius prices are somewhat correlated to gas prices. When gas prices are high, used Prius prices are higher.

Can you hold out any longer on your current car? What about buying an older used (maybe 06-07, 04-05 if you're willing to chance it a bit more) 2nd gen Prius to keep for such a a short time. You won't take as much of a resale value hit in terms of absolute dollars if you're going to only keep for such a short time.

To use your hypothetical figure... of $600/month, I seriously doubt a used 2nd gen will take a $3600-$5400 resale value hit if kept for only 6-9 months.

To use a weird example, as I posted in 05 at trying to get a commuter car - Page 2 - MY350Z.COM Forums

He took a whopping $50 hit on resale value.

 

What's a carpool lane?
I always thought that any car could drive in a carpool lane (even HMMWV's) if they were part of a......carpool. Maybe they should call it an Eco Lane? I guess folks out on the left coast always have to be a little different.
Anyway.....on to the question.
Re: Will Prius Resale Values Plummet in Cali??
Naaaah...I think Prius resale values will continue to be pretty strong, unless the economy forces oil prices back below say....30 bucks a barrel, and if that happens used car prices will probably still be fairly high----since the low gas price will have been caused by a worldwide economic recession (depression?)
Econoboxes, and all used car prices in general are pretty strong right now.
I would expect that PRIUS prices will fall off just a little bit, since they're about 10-20 percent overinflated right now due to shortages, but I wouldn't expect a correction any larger than that.
Remember about a year ago? They were trying to sell G3s at MSRP minus a few thou. I personally think that those days are probably gone for a while.
The PHV, when it ever gets here is going to be a pretty low volume seller at first, since my personal guess is that they're going to be pretty expensive in the first year or two. Should not be too much of an impact for used G2 and G3 value.
After all.....the folks on CNN tell me that we're in the worst economic morass since Hoover (Herbert Clark, not John Edgar) so new car purchases will probably be weaker than used cars.

JMHO.

 

No, Prius is on a roll!

First-Gen Prius: Foreshadowing for Electric Cars? - Driver's Seat - WSJ

 

No but they will come with 'free' Anthropomorphic dummies.

 

No way would the SS allow you to own one without the extra "bullet-proofing" to save me from watching another marathon state-sponsored funeral. What's that buff Caddy getting for mileage now? A couple of gallons to the mile? Is it better than the M1-A1 Abrams? That's all I want to know.

 

IIRC the M1A2 gets about 2 gallons to the mile on the road....

 

Yow! FWIW, I've driven a PT Cruiser 1 or 2 times as rentals. They were ok and felt surprisingly solid, although they were rather lacking in acceleration.

Any particular reason? You like the styling and/or more luxurious interior? Obviously they cost more and personally, I dislike the CT's exterior styling.

Since it seems like you have some expectations based upon EPA estimates, please read http://priuschat.com/forums/other-c...uth-about-epa-city-highway-mpg-estimates.html.

It does sound like you put lots of miles on your cars though. If the drives are long enough or if the cool down period between each power off and on is very short, you should get good mileage.

If high gas mileage is important, you could also consider cars at Most fuel-efficient cars.

If you're willing a fair bit of mileage mileage in exchange for acceleration (Consumer Reports - Fuel economy vs. performance), maybe a San Francisco Oakland San Jose Area Nissan Altima Hybrid Offers - 0.0% APR - $4,000 Cash Back - $279 Lease - Nissan USA is in your realm w/a current $4K incentive. It sometimes goes as high as $5K. Too bad that $2350 Federal tax credit ended on it last year (as well as all other non-PHV hybrids). Do keep in mind it's being discontinued for the '12 model year, so that might impact resale value.

 

POTUS, sounds like what you really could use would be the "Ford Transit connect EV", too bad they are not offering it in the US, you could import a few from Europe perhaps.

 

Oh... the NAH would be probably not well suited then. AFAIK, there's still no trunk pass thru or folding rear seats and the trunk is tiny (due to the HV battery pack).

 

I actually wrote an article for EV World on people trading leases on the Prius to buy a Volt. EV WORLD: Switching to the Volt

Noel

 

Well, it's available in limited quantities for $50-odd thousand. Ford have a bass-ackwards arrangement where they import gliders from Turkey and have Azure put in the EV components.

It's also not selling well in Europe either. They are very expensive, well over TC TCO, so they're really limited to "evaluation" use for now.

 

Just my 2-cents - No, it will not cause prices to plummet. Prices will be lower, but they should be in line with the rest of the country - remember if they crash all you would need to do is fly Southwest out to CA, buy one and drive it back.

The other factor is the market - if you assume that the market as a whole contains perfect information you can also assume that it know that the program was ending, and each month leading, the premium for the carpool lane access would have fallen until 0 sort of how the stock market factors in things like a change to the prime lending rate before it happens rather than when it is announced - the only time a change actually affects the market in a meaningful way is if it was different than what was expected.

 

The resell price will be more in line with other Priis in North America.
Should be 40-50% of original value if mileage is under warranty and 4 to 5 years old, no accidents and clean.

People trying to buy Volts are having to pay higher than MRSP.

California should have downgraded the Prius HOV to 2 passengers instead of 3 minimum. Easier to carpool with one extra person instead of two.

 

It is two people up here in Northern California in most, if not all places. =]

 

no;

the loss of the HOV exemption, influx of EVs and PEVs will not change the fact that 1 in 11 are still driving cars that get less than half the mileage a Prius gets