Why the slow evolution of "conventional" gas-electric hybrid technology

Tried to make a list.
Possible reasons for the disappointment that HEV MPG increase is "slow"
1. Americans expect rapid breakthroughs (sometimes overly so)
2. Change often takes longer than we think
3. Seems like ~50 mpg is approx. limit for Prius size (no-plug) hybrid running in gasoline?
4. US gov't policy is to focus on plug-in and EV (Energy Independence ACT?)
5. Plug-in and EV popular next step with at least some car buyers vs. better hybrids
6. Patents - technologies are owned by someone, they want compensation
7. Not invented here syndrome - since Toyota did hydrids
8. Next step-out requires new tech (batteries, Diesel hybrid, or fuel cell)

 

Yes, I sure do know what those scary limits are! So limiting that for the past 10+ years, I've put far more miles on our EV than on any gas car - including our Prius. But I digress...

And honestly my comment about taking the ICE out of an EV was meant to get people thinking that "hybrid" does not need to mean "gasoline" as it does today. A real hybrid (in my goofy little mind) should mean that it runs on two different fuel sources... not just two motive sources that come from gasoline.

There are plenty of easy advancements that could be made. Stuff that's already been invented and tested. I'm not talking about unobtanium here!

 

Wow. Brutal generalization there. I'm curious what it is that you "develop." Making things more efficient is pretty much my life's work.

I haven't heard any hair-brained ideas presented here, so I'm not really sure what your point is. Do you feel that the gasoline hybrid can't be improved upon? We're at the endgame of personal transportation?

 

You made some good points. Battery improvements still have a lot of potential, we aren't close to a theoretical limit on battery energy density.

Good enough batteries and cheap enough PV cells would revolutionize the world. So far, both seem to be eventually possible given enough intelligently applied development $$ and time. It will be a lot of $$$ and probably a lot of time too

Diesel hybid seems like it won't happen because the cost and complexity of getting a diesel to run clean enough eats up any advantage it has over other ICE types such as Atkinson cycle.

If batteries get to be good enough, there will be no reason for fuel cells in cars as long as they are limited to burning hydrogen.

 

I'd like to thank the OP for the topic. Got me thinking.

It's very disappointing that Honda has not developed their IMA hybrids further, perhaps by adding a clutch between the ICE and the IMA to allow regen and EV without spinning the ICE. Perhaps some other ideas as well. Instead Honda seems to have taken steps backwards from the Insight-I with the Insight-II (cost over mpg) and the CR-Z (sportiness over mpg).

Patents appear to be both a problem and a spur. It appears that GM's different design for the Volt may have been motivated by not wanting to license technology from Toyota? While I'm not convinced that the Volt's design is a step forward, at least it's something different.

But STM one of the major limitations hybrids are coming up against is the capabilities of current drivers and parameters of current driving:

- high speeds mean that cars need bloat to provide crush zones (no manufacturer wants a high fatality rate in one of its cars!), which means more weight - the Prius-III weighs 3000lbs, imagine what would happen to FE if lower speeds (say 55mph) allowed Toyota to pare off 500-1000lbs?? - but people insist on driving at high speeds, even above the PSL, apparently feeling that they are traffic safety experts in addition to their regular occupations

- driving "normal" (lets call it "without thinking about FE") vs hypermiling (let's call it "thinking at least a little bit about FE" or simply "economically") - driving economically has a huge effect on FE in any car - the Prius-III is already at 60-70mpg if driven economically - my GF and I are certainly not the best at it, but we are getting 60-70mpg in my Prius-III - a shift in driving habits would yield far greater improvement than the next incremental step in technology

- the Prius-III is tightly engineered so that even someone driving "without thinking about FE" will get around 50mpg - imagine what might be possible if the design constraints were relaxed to offer more options for someone who IS thinking about FE

- the focus in the US is on purchasing a vehicle with more advanced technology so that one can get better FE without changing how one drives - maybe it's time to focus on better driving together with better technology.

 

Keep in mind that for now we have been hampered by pesky patent limitations with the most affordable technology. We can blame GM and Texaco for that.

[ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasys[/ame]

 

IP protection laws are innovation killers and in their essence are a form of corporate welfare. Major innovations in highly complex systems occur quickly only when you ignore everyone else's IP and settle it all later, like what's happening right now with the smart phone developers.

 

Adding some:
6b. Patents - Patents can be bought and held to block development by those interested in doing so
9. Profit motive - Fastest advance doesn't always lead to greater profit
10. Risk - Game changing advances involve steps into the unknown with inherent risk. The risk can be reduced (not eliminated) but this requires time and cost
11. Great existing design concept and implimentation - Makes it harder to get significant incremental improvement

 

OP - Sorry, but I do not agree with your premise. When you consider that the conventional internal combustion engine has been around for 100+ years and the principles have not really changed much in that time - excluding the Wankel (and perhaps other fringe designs). The technology around the engine has changed - improvements in manufacturing, materials and design have improved the efficiency, but in many cases those were driven by outside forces - for example how much has the computer helped?

It seems to me that with hybrids there are going to be gains in 2 areas not directly auto related that are needed to give it the next boost forward - better batteries and also lower weight. To a lesser degree I'd also add tires to the list.

Even still I think that there has been some progress in the past 10 years - I think that Honda is not a great example - years ago they bet on ICA and it proved wrong. I believe that I have heard that they have gone back to the drawing board and are soon going to be coming out with a different or highly revised hybrid system. There have been news reports of all sorts of other hybrid systems in development - for example a hydraulic system by Chrysler (perhaps better applied to big vehicles like buses than cars) and also flywheel designs. I think that the Volt is a great step forward - if GM makes similar gains to Prius between Gen 1 & 2, the Volt is going to kick butt in a couple of years. The new Hundai and Kia hybrids are supposedly terrific cars that use a new style battery (lithium polymer), the Leaf and Tesla are all cars that are on the market and have blazed new ground. There are a number of others in the works that go even further - take the VW XL1 - the test versions get over 250mpg and there have been rumblings that they are looking at actually making it. I'd say that is a hell of an advancement in hybrid technology. Keep in mind that all of these gains have been made as safety standards are tightened - adding complexity and energy sapping systems to cars and also adding weight.

 

...on the patent/technology ownership sub-category of slowness, and
this applies to all technology, not just automobiles:
(a) Owner may want to block use, but I am thinking this is rare because this is better known as trade secret info (no patent)
(b) Owner holding as trade secret for own use
(c) Owner wants a lot of $$$ to sell rights (profit motive inhibits faster use)
(d) Owner willing to sell rights but buyer does not want to buy it, would rather "dis" the owner for various reasons
(e) Not to mention patent law issues, infamous fairly recent case Tropicana successfully patented making orange juice from an orange developed by Univ. of Florida I think it was. This leaves it up to courts to sort out.

Bottom line is, yes better solutions to many world problems are slower, due to profit motive of the technology owners. Patent law limits this ~17 years, which sounds bad but in reality many new ideas take about 17-20 years to commercialize. So from technology owner viewpoint sometimes really deserve even longer protection.

Wright brothers shelved the airplane for some years, hoping to exploit for military use by US gov't. US gov't thought airplane was bad military idea, at first did not see the potential.

I am trying to not specifically comment on the large format NiMH battery slowdown, because after reading Wikipedia I am confused about the real story there.

 

Going back to the OP's original query, "Why the slow evolution of conventional gas-electric technology? "

I think there are a LOT of individual P.O.V.'s to look not only at that question, but also the answers.

First, I wouldn't go so far as to apply the term conventional to hybrid technology at all. Kudo's to Toyota that they have created success to the level that in less than 20 years, people are already reaching the "yawn" what's next stage. That's a hallmark of success.

Secondly, while sometimes I'm disappointed in the rate of improvement or change in efficiency for all automobiles, over the course of my entire lifetime, I wouldn't say Prius isn't evolving. Infact, compare a 3rd Generation Prius to a 1st Generation Prius and I think anyone would be amazed at the evolution. Not only in offering a bigger vehicle with more utilitarian aspects but also more creature comfort, but also an entirely much more driveable vehicle.

Why isn't Hybrid technology evolving? It is. But if it works? If it's marketable? The change is going to be slow. The coolant thermos is gone in favor of a heat reclamation system, also gone is the fuel bladder. Also, in the jump from 2nd Generation to 3rd Generation, Toyota touted a 95% redesigned powertrain.

The OP can wonder why a "greater" product isn't readily available today in comparison to a 2004 Prius. But look around. The 2011...is a greater product. Competitors are now offering not only Hybrids but full electrics..and Toyota is expanding Prius from a single flagship vehicle...into a whole family of "Prius" vehicles.

I'd argue that within the world of commercially available vehicles, the evolution of The Prius has actually been "speedy". Since in comparison to the rest of the automobile world...which are still driving vehicles powered primarily by engines closely related to those that were bolted onto "Horseless Carriages" ...The Prius has been cutting edge on many fronts.

While the Prius v, is not the vehicle I want...for my own personal needs, it does represent evolution. How many vehicles can rival a large SUV or mini-van in utilitarian application and get better than sub-compact MPG's? Again Kudo's Toyota.

No, while I am always wishing for advancement, and sometimes myself frustrated at the overall rate, I cannot really fault Toyota. They have been at the forefront, the absolute leader of promoting commercially available Hybrids. At this point? They are the only automaker I trust to do it right, and remain commited.

I have to give Toyota Kudos for Prius, even as I await Prius c, and Plug in Prius...both on the horizon.

The only aspect I would warn Toyota it "feels" to me like they are falling behind...is in the dashboard layouts and technology.

The IMO...somewhat "geeky" but cool 80's video game look of the Gen 2 Dash...is IMO better than the almost 70's digital alarm clock look of the Gen 3 Dash...

And IMO Ford and Honda both have more colorful, better looking Dash Boards and instrumentation.

We have evolved beyond vacume tube displays...and "touch tracer" is not enough to impress me.

 

I like what you commented on in your post. The large format NiMh battery is my favorite story to read about and like you, I don't think I know the real story. I have read a lot of stuff and they seem to be pointing to GM's motives for selling a battery patent to a gas company. Some say it was to stop the Toyota RAV4EV, and Prius plug-in that was being tested at that time. If they did sell an automotive battery patent to a gas company, they knew exactly what was going to happen to it!

 

Stop right there! Get your calculator out and figure the gas pumped back after 400 miles at 50 MPG, then 70 MPG.

Although 2.3 gallons less pumped into a 70 MPG car over a 50 MPG is admirable, it is not all that much. Do an gallons/ mile vs. MPG curve to see how the curve flattens out at higher MPG.

So, what Toyota has done is to increase the size and power somewhat of the 3rd generation Prius. The plug-in Prius might net you a bunch more MPG's, *depending on how you use it*.

Nothing easy with electric drive in vehicles - the battery technology is incredibly complicated and challenging. But, it's being worked on around the globe.

 

400 miles at 50mpg is 8 gallons.
400 miles at 70mpg is 5.7 gallons.

Saving 2.3 gallons out of 8 is a LOT, to me anyway: it's just under 29%!!

To put this into perspective, we're paying roughly $4.10/gallon for regular in CT these days. So getting 70mpg vs 50mpg is like paying $2.92 a gallon (if I did the calculation correctly).

Looking at it another way, the 8 gallons required to go 400 miles at 50mpg would be good for 560 miles at 70mpg - 160 miles further!!

So 70mpg ve 50mpg is a big deal to me. The fact that at 50mpg I'm doing far better than pickups and SUV's that are getting 10-20mpg doesn't make 70mpg seem any less worthwhile.

 

I think you hit a point of diminishing return on investment. If 70mpg was easy and cheap to achieve we would already be there.

 

The best car is no car at all. The future looks a lot like Manhattan.

 

Ok fine. But, consider the HUGE number of drivers tooting around in 25 MPGish average cars, give or take a few ... the Camrys, Accord, all the CUV's, Rav4's, CR-V and so on and on....

Getting them from 25 MPG into something like a Prius v at 40 MPG*, you're going from 16 gallons at the 400 mile fillup down to 10 gallons. That's 6 gallons saved. 25 MPG figure is a big slice of drivers on the road.

I'm not saying 70 MPG is not noble, but there are bigger gains to be made in *hopefully* moving the family of five from 25 MPG's to 40 MPG's to start with.

* Not talking about these little whopdeedoo compact conventionals that apparently eek out 40 MPG highway only with a tailwind. Talking 40 MPG day in and out, city/hwy. hopefully the Prius v beats the EPA and sells like mad.

 

Just curious to hear your theories on how the previous admin is to be blamed (again) on free market advancements, not enough subsidies for hybrid tech projects, too many subsidies for Big Oil?

 

The UN would agree.:boom:

 

OK, but by how much have emissions improved since 1988? The automakers aren't magicians capable of overturning the laws of physics.