$40K Price tag- Fair Guess for initial roll-out?

Dependency on funding from taxpayers isn't a strong argument, especially for a vehicle intended to become mainstream quickly. Remember, a top-selling vehicle would use up the full credits available in just a single year.

That money is to jump-start production & sales, that's it. The design should be able to stand on it's own afterward.

How long should we wait and what exactly are we waiting for?
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Realistically GM isn't going to sell 200,000 volts for at least 3-4 years, by then Gen 2 may be out and we'll see what we see.

 

Actually 65% of Americans have 2 or more cars. 90% of them drive less than 100 miles a day. A full 45% have a garage. They can just replace one with a Leaf.

Ofcourse, Leaf is a pure EV and Prius is a hybrid. But people do compare them and decide to buy one over the other - or as a lot of them are doing upgrade from one to the other. Vast majority of Prius owners, I'd guess, have another car in the family and also access to a garage.

 

That could be said about all ICE cars. Heavily dependant on highly subsidized oil for survival.

 

It could be said with a straight face if there was reason to believe taxpayers support each equally.

 

Allowing history to repeat is how we got Volt and it still amazes me the way supporters shy away from those firm goals... like this topic, price.

What actually needs to be done to achieve a non-subsidized & profitable $30k price?
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Ofcourse not. So much blood obviously has not been spilt for EVs. Nor the TRILLION dollars just in the last decade.

 

^^ Exactly, so clearly taxpayers vastly prefer oil subsidy over EV subsidy. EV subsidy is likely going to be short-lived, while oil subsidy is not. These are not my preferences by the way, I just try to not be blind to reality.

 

Reminder... that's not what was expected nor does it do anything to address the cordless market. CAFE standards must still be met and competitive products must be offered. Will GM really just give those sales to other automakers?

Think about demand for the PHV model in the second year it's available.
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Well, chances of "short lived" ev tax credits are near zero. There is bi-partisan support for these tax credits.

Remember, all the auto majors support these tax credits and they have plants in various southern states. I'll leave it up to you to figure out why even within Republicans majority support EV tax credits

 

I'm not speaking for anyone other than myself. I'm not sure what claims specifically were made with sales predictions, but this is about what I see:
2011 - 10-15,000
2012 - 40-60,000
2013 - 80-100,000
2014 - 100,000+

So my prediction is sometime in 2014 the tax credit (as it is now) will be used up, but like I said I expect new Gen to be hitting about then too (especially considering how many of the early adopters have 3 year leases now, they probably want us moving on to the next iteration).

If they follow this sales pattern they will more than triple the US sales of the prius in its first 4 years.

In my opinion an unsubsidized price below $35,000 is marketable, so they need to trim about $5000 more in that time. Of course if they can get there before the credit is used up they'll have after credit prices in the upper 20's and then they'll have a real sales coup on their hands, so here's hoping.

 

I think we know by now that the Volt's sales target is not going to be anywhere near 10,000 to 15,000 for 2011, the numbers for 2012 - 2014 also will be difficult, if not impossible. Unless GM drastically reduce the Volt's price, I don't see the Chevy Volt getting close to tripling the Prius' PHV sales even in 4 years.

It is going to be tough to beat the Prius PHV efficiency with EV regen and HV mode which may be rated at 55mpg, then it costs less.

We also need to remember that the hybrid market is still less than 3% with 70% of those sales being Toyota/Prius. Someone who does not have access at home to a plug, driveway or garage will likely not buy a plug in car.

4 Ways to Fix the Chevy Volt | BNET

 

Volt has a lot to catch up.

1) The gas engine tail pipe emission needs to lower from ULEV to eAT-PZEV.
2) Battery warranty needs to be extended from 8 years / 100k miles to 10 years / 150k miles
3) The price needs to come down by about $3k.
4) EV range needs to increase from 35 to 40 miles.
5) Cordless MPG needs to increase from 37 mpg to 50 mpg.
6) Make it run on regular gas

 

Toyota has a little to do to catch up:

1. Get a production plug in car to market.

 

Toyota has already produced 600 first-generation models.

Toyota is currently producing a hybrid using a lithium-based battery.

Volt has a boatload more to do still, just to achieve criteria mainstream consumers expect. To also reach sales of +100,000 within 3 years is quite a stretch. Care to indulge us with specifics about what that 2014 model will deliver & cost?
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Those figures are not realistic (except for the first year). Given that 2012 model is just marginally lower than 2011 and the economy is taking another turn for the worse - as expected - I don't see how GM will sell 40 to 60K in 2012.

 

This thread seems to have become a GM Volt thread.

Getting back to the topic, does anyone here still think Prius PHV will be priced 10+K more than the non-plugin version ?

 

I figure 50-100k total worldwide sales in 5 - 10 years before the Volt project is mothballed or outright canceled.

 

The mass production model with the refinements you expect from Toyota will be here in March 2012.

2012 Volt will not have those much needed improvements. The link Sergiospl posted has a very interesting quote.

 

No, Prius v is reported to cost $2k more. I just don't see Prius PHV having 5x more premium, especially after the $2,917 tax credit.

I think it'll depends on how much improvement and cost cutting they can make with Gen2 Voltec.

Toyota made a huge leap with Gen2 Prius. The size, power and fuel efficiency increased while keeping the price the same.

GM has a lot more work cut out for them with Gen2 AND the price needs to come down. That's if the architecture allows it. Remember Voltec is more complex than HSD due to 3 clutches and liquid cooled battery pack to power the big motor (special thanks to the ICE dead weight that refuses to work as a team). The result is a duplicate drivetrain with the ability (bragging right) to drive around with half the hybrid powertrain). That's just dumb.

A compact size Volt weights more than a full size sedan. Volt weights 400 lbs more than Honda CR-V or 364 lbs more than Mazda 5 with 3rd row (6 seater). Give that some thoughts.

Prius PHV weights much less than the Volt and it is a midsize.