I think part of what should be factored into the cost of petroleum is the lack of security. We can get 101% of what we need... or 85% of what we need. We can't know from week to week what will happen SOMEWHERE in the world. The secondary problem with places like Libya is, they were able to EXPORT a net because their people were starving and poor. Free people will want cars, and luxuries and a high standard of living. It won't take long for them to go from a net exporter... to a net importer. This is already happening in Mexico. They're almost to the point where they don't export as much as they consume. And this is the pattern that is spreading. People yearning for freedom, becoming free (or 'free'). And then they start importing cars and needing goods and food delivered in large scale through their ports and right to the door of their local Walmart (or whatever). And this is why America and the 'Free' world supports loathsome dictators who trample their citizens into the dust. Because the dictator and his turturers and police and military don't consume as much fuel as a free people would.
I don't recall seeing the letters EIA in any Priuschat post, but there are many threads here with eia in it. What is it? US Energy Information Administration www.eia.gov http://www.eia.gov/neic/speeches/howard052510.pdf (energy outlook 2010) At this point, I'd rather look to authorities for info on energy, climate (EPA), etc... too confusing otherwise. EIA and EPA talk to each other and that's a good since EPA strongly supports IPCC, etc... climate change predictions.
Any comments or takers on the post above? Does anyone spend time looking at US gov sites for answers / info?
I didn't look at the PDF, but I semi-frequently consult http://www.eia.doe.gov/ for answers. Unfortunately, they redesigned the site and some of the content I used to depend on is nowhere to be found/moved to some unknown URL. Even the Google searches would point to it but the page would be replaced by something else. Example: I used to depend on http://www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html but it seems no longer accessible. It now leads to http://www.eia.doe.gov/energyexplained/. I'm specifically looking for the nice table that was there showing daily US oil consumption, net imports, etc. all in one spot. Unfortunately, there's no Bing nor Google cache of it. http://waybackmachine.org/*/www.eia.doe.gov/basics/quickoil.html yields "Page cannot be crawled or displayed due to robots.txt."
cwerdna, it's www.eia.gov (take the doe out). Where I'm coming from (and not towards you) is I get kinda weary of the public debate on energy and environment. These are very complicated subjects. Some may say, the gubment (EIA, EPA) is bunch of BSers, but I lean towards what they have to say.
I used to look at it for total world production. I noticed that the production increased until about 2005 when it flattened out. It seemed like the production peaked in 2008 or today is not much higher then 2008. However, the world demand is as high as the production or higher so the price of gas is becoming high and will get higher until the world oil consumption falls significantly. I think that we have peaked or plateaued in oil production. Even if we have not demand in other countries is rising really fast.
Update on the former Home - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding Energy I thought I sent a mail to the EIA folks complaining of the problem a few days ago. It was still in my drafts. :/ Anyway, someone replied and sent me the new location: Oil: Crude and Petroleum Products - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding Energy. :thumb: Agreed. I almost never bring up AGW because there will always be a set of deniers and whether it's true or not makes no difference what you or I think. The thing I always hate is when people talk about drilling more here or there (usually ANWR). Ok, I'm for it. Tell much how much oil that will yield and how much in reserves reside there. Almost always, there's no answer. When ANWR comes up, I usually point them the numbers at EIA - Analysis of Crude Oil Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - Results vs. Oil: Crude and Petroleum Products - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding Energy.
