AutoNation: Gas Price `Freak-Out Number' Higher Than 2008

I thought SUVs were always included. They just didn't become popular until the 1990s.

 

I knew a guy from UK who did exactly that several years ago. Came over here and bought a Toyota Sequoia brand new.

 

I didn't say I didn't like V8's. We still love 'em over here despite the high cost of fuel. Thinking of Range Rovers and TVR's etc.

I though this thread was about how worried you'll all be when gas hits $4.50 and that this worry would be much reduced if 80% of the population drove something a little more suitable to their needs.

If nothing else, improving fuel economy standards mean your country won't grind to a halt when the oil price hits $150 a barrel in the summer. I remember watching the news here in 2007 with a US family pushing their Camry to the petrol station and complaining they couldn't afford to fill it - if they can't afford $40 to fill a car then they really need to catch a bus.

 

Always lots of fun stories when gas gets high like interviewing SUV owners at gas stations complaining about fuel costs.

I think a suppression to the speculation of 2008 is that when oil costs a lot for the 1st world, it costs a lot for the rest, too, and they cannot afford much to begin with, so as countries like China and India disproportionately increase their desire for oil the price goes up for everyone, but disproportionately the price for them as a portion of their wealth. With China/India not that wealthy the demand is thus impacted out of necessity to a greater degree.

 

SUVs, minivans and "light" pickups (GVWR <8500 lbs.) have always been included in the "light trucks" category. Many of these so-called "crossovers" are also classified as light trucks.

I hate the term "crossover" as it's such a vague and fuzzy definition. I've heard all of these be referred to as "crossover" before: Toyota Matrix, Highlander and RAV4. I'd call the Highlander a medium sized SUV and the RAV4 a small SUV (at least the previous gen). I also hate how the media refers to crossovers as "fuel efficient" or "fuel sippers".

If one goes to http://www.edmunds.com/finder/car-finder-results.html?finder_q=type:Crossover; and sort by mileage, you'll find even the Jeep Grand Cherokee (EPA rated 12/16) and BMW X5 M (EPA rated 12/17) under "crossovers". I consider neither to be crossovers. They're medium sized SUVs to me. Even the Cadillac Escalade EXT is there.

As for 20%, yeah, it was that way in 1975. See http://www.epa.gov/oms/cert/mpg/fetrends/420s10002.pdf which comes from Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2010 | OTAQ | US EPA.

Light trucks have been the subject of CAFE requirements, but there were always 3 fleets: imported passenger cars (IP), domestic passenger cars (DP) and "light trucks". Light trucks had to meet a lower value. http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/Oct2010_Summary_Report.pdf is the latest summary I can find, which came from Fuel Economy | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Good passenger car numbers couldn't offset lousy "light truck" numbers since they were separate fleets. That's going to change.

 

But in India & China the petroleum prices are controlled - they are also taxed more. This means the government can cushion the blow better. China is also entering into long term contracts. Remember not all oil is sold in the open market. US remains the most vulnerable to oil price shocks ...

 

Yeah, they are hardly fuel sippers - put larger wheels and tires, lift the body, there goes the fuel economy ... down. I don't like a comment in C&D mini review about the CR-V ... it ends 'who cares, you're getting 26 MPG highway!' ... Big deal 26 highway, blech.

A true SUV is a body-on-frame vehicle like a truck. When I look under my 1988 pickup, I can see that hefty rectangular channel frame / beam that runs from front to back. Then the body sits on that frame.

A Highlander and Rav4 are not body on frame vehicles - the frame and body are more like a regular car. Thus called CUVs. The Matrix as CUV is splitting hairs. I call it a 'sport wagon' or 'sport hatch'. It's like a Mazda3 hatch or Impreza, same thing.

 

The term was created only to differentiate an SUV based on the traditional Body on Frame truck chassis ( Expedition, 4Runner, TrailBlazer, etc. ) from the newer SUV based on a unibody car chassis.

The unibody crossover SUVs are more fuel efficient than the traditional BOF truck-based SUVs. There used to be a big difference like 30% but the more modern BOF SUVs like the 4Runner are pretty close now. Another way of looking at the midsized crossovers is that they are nothing more than minivan chassis' with hinged doors instead of sliding doors; Highlander = Sienna, Pilot = Odyssey

 

Gov can cushion by paying the difference itself or taking in less revenue. In either case these are not nations as rich per amount of fuel used as the US...

 

i work at what will soon become the largest non governmental employer in the county (i live in state capital). we have all ranges of pay, many low and since we are doubling our manpower there is a large percentage at entry wages. we have the highest minimum wage in the country and dont have the highest cost of living.

even now, while gas is still $3.20 a gallon, the rideshare board is literally exploding. what used to take someone a few minutes a day to manage has been turned over to self management of people posting requests for rides (about 90%) or people offering rides for gas money.

in 2008, the same thing happened and i actually know 3 people, all working mothers who quit when there was nothing left of their paycheck after babysitting and gas costs were paid.

so, this article is assuming the economy is stronger? well, it aint. i took a 30% pay cut two years ago and have only gained back less than 10% which is not guaranteed because its based on a bonus structure.

trust me, the pain will be very evident waaay before gas hit $4 a gallon but then again, some no longer have house payments to make so maybe that gas bill wont be so tough after all

 

It is a messed up "recovery". Measuring corporate profits it's good. Measuring what matters to most people, their job, it's horrendous. But in the perfect American company the makeup of the company consists of the board of directors and automation. This doesn't bode well for those being replaced by technology, which is growing astronomically in capabilities and humans are not.

 

hear about the latest job projections? maybe Obama job plan will work after all, or did anything he do have any effect?

that will be a good debate. the big question; how many of these estimated 200,000+ per month jobs will pay well?

 

Its actually europe and japan that are most vulerable. Even though they use less per capita, the multiplier effect is higher. China is starting to move oil with smoothed market prices, which is a good thing. They have learned the lessons that nixon's price freeze policies cause higher consumption and shortages. I doubt they will repeat those mistakes from the US in the 70s. China and india will simply reduce their rate of growth, but not go back into recession like the us economy.

Without speculation and unrest, I would be confident opec would just open the spigot and make oil flow when the price got high enough. With the unrest in the middle east, we should be ready to gear up for anouther price shock. No matter what your politics, it is not good policy to have your economy depend on despots in foreign countries. I hope we will have time and move to less gasoline and more BEVs, PHEVs, and HVs.

The latest job picture is not good at all, unemployment is expected to stay high for years. I don't think at least on this forum we should engage in politics and either give credit or blame to obama. To me presidents always have exaggerated influences.

 

They have always been included, the shift is because the government decided to increase regulation and costs of cars more than trucks. Like most government actions what we got was a shift of cars to less regulated trucks that did not need to be as safe and were allowed to pollute more. It shifted the market from station wagons to suv and minivans that were catagorized as trucks. Gotta love the politicians and lobbyists.

 

We decided to be proactive and get rid of our gas guzzlers before that "freak-out" number hits. If we had waited, we would've paid a premium for either gasoline or a more fuel-efficient car. I bet that if gas prices go up as predicted, I could sell my '06 for more than I bought it for--not that I would.

 

That's a nice sob story, but it's nobody's fault but their own. If you buy stupid, you deserve whatever is thrown at you. If you cant do simple math, then try harder. Everyone has the capacity to. Buy a $1500 beater that gets 15mpg or a $2500 better-beater that gets 30mpg?

Just like cell contracts. Get a "free" phone, but then you are required to pay $30/mo for the data plan with that phone. Or pay $400 for a top of the line phone and choose whatever you want...

And DC has a pretty good public transportation system. Driving is a luxury, so if you can't then don't.

 

Why do you bring up DC? Yes, the DC Metro system is quite good, but that's on the other side of the country.

DaveinOlyWA lives in the state capital of Washington state, not DC. I can't speak to that city's public transit but I can tell you that the public transit where I live in WA sucks.

 

I read "i live in state capitol" to mean "i live in the states' capitol" of DC.

Still doesnt change driving is a luxury. Bicycles do work too

 

In DaveinOlyWA's location, it mentions "Puget Sound, WA". Puget Sound is over here in WA state. And I'm guessing Oly stands for Olympia, since Olympia is our state capital.

As for driving being a luxury, in some places, it's almost a necessity. I don't know where you live or how the public transportation is there, but in some parts of he US, it frankly sucks. If we want to discuss that (I have plenty of real life examples that apply/applied to me), we should have another one in FHOP.

Bicycling in many areas is not an option either due to danger (streets not designed for it), distance or it being illegal to ride one on most highways.

 

I live on the front range of the Rockies where the bus runs every hour, and takes a minimum of 2 busses (1 transfer) to get anywhere. They only operate from 5am to 7pm and not at all on Sundays. Horrible public transport. Yet people walk and bike if they need to. One guy I see has a segway that is pretty awesome to see fly by.

The terrain is rough and "hills" are measured in thousands of feet for the parts of town on the mountain itself.