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Leaf C02 versus Prius C02

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by chogan2, Nov 23, 2010.

  1. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    The Leaf is reported to require 34 KWH per 100 miles:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/23/business/23leaf.html?_r=1&hpw

    As of 2002 (the most recent report I could find), in Virginia, 1 KWH generated 1.16 lbs C02. For the US on average, 1 KWH generated 1.34 lbs C02.

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/pdf/EFactors1998-2000.pdf

    So charging the Leaf with grid electricity would produce this much C02 per mile:
    Virginia: 0.394 lbs
    US avg: 0.456 lbs.

    This estimate is only for the burning of the fuel and does not include the "upstream" C02 required to obtain the fuel. E.g., nuclear plants, by this metric, produce C02-free electricity.

    A gallon of gasoline produces 19.4 lbs of C02.

    Emission Facts: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Typical Passenger Vehicle | US EPA

    A new Prius gets 50 mpg.

    So a new Prius produces this much C02/mile:
    US avg: 0.388.

    This estimate is only for burning the gasoline, and does not include the "upstream" C02 required to produce the gasoline. The entire well-to-tank cost is estimated at somewhere around 20% of the energy value of the gasoline itself.

    We can argue about the details, but, basically, there's no free lunch. The Leaf is no cleaner than the Prius, for the average US grid-charging user, in terms of C02/mile. Clean electric transport requires clean electricity.
     
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  2. davesrose

    davesrose Active Member

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    This is the main concern I've had about going completely to electric sources. Most of the country is powered by coal based generators: that makes sense ecconomically since the US has a large reserve of coal. I can never seem to find accurate sources on what CO2 levels might be with traditional coal based plants vs "clean" "scrubber" plants. Right now, I think the solution is for different alternatives: see what kind of power demand there is in areas that have alternative electricity generation sources. And a hybrid is still viable for now. I'm sure anti-Prius folks will say there's a lot of emmisions generated for its production (for its battery and for shipping the finished car via cargo ship). When hybrids become more popular, I'm sure more will be made in North America.
     
  3. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    Here in WA, my electricity comes entirely from renewables: Nearly all hydro, with a tiny bit of wind power in the mix. Elsewhere, people have the option of paying a bit extra for wind power.

    Further, CO2 is not the only pollutant. Surprising as it may seem, most coal-fired power plants are less dirty than even an AT-PZEV car.

    And finally, moving the national fleet towards electric opens the possibility of moving more towards sustainable energy: It's possible but very expensive and complicated to synthesize liquid fuel from electricity, but an electric fleet can use the electricity directly from sustainable sources: PV and wind.

    And this does not even begin to speak to the balance of trade issues: foreign vs domestic energy, or the "terrorism tax" related to the fact that a big chunk of the world's oil comes from the people who are the principal financiers of al Qaeda.

    Framing the Prius vs Leaf discussion solely in terms of CO2 is so far off the mark it's silly.
     
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  4. richard schumacher

    richard schumacher shortbus driver

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    Not silly; it points up that converting to non-fossil electricity is usually the most effective thing that one can do to reduce fossil CO2 emissions. A Leaf powered by coal is no benefit.

    There are no coal-fired power plants in the US that capture any significant fraction of their CO2 output. Newer plants are more efficient others, but from a global warming standpoint all coal plants are pretty dirty.
     
  5. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    CO2 is not the only issue to consider, but it is a huge one. It would be quite the irony if the US spent its resources on electrification and had little left over to combat AGW.
     
  6. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    You want silly? How about the Federal government telling consumers that EVs are pollution-free (note the zero environmental impact -- "tailpipe only" is in the fine print).

    [​IMG]

    I picked C02 as arguably the most important. Certainly over the long run. I didn't want to get into the fine print. I mean, how much mercury does my Prius emit per mile? Coal-fired power plants are overwhelming the largest source of mercury pollution in the US. How much S02 does my Prius emit? We have an entire cap-and-trade system in place to suppress power plant S02 emissions. How much methane does my Prius emit? Coal mining is a large source of methane release in the US. I believe coal is the largest source of radionucleide emissions in the US, but I'd have to check that for sure. But N0x is largely a problem of internal combustion engines (I'm old enough to remember cars before EGR valves), so I'd bet EVs win on NOx. Probably on some others as well. Doesn't change the fact that coal is dirty along a large number of dimensions.
     
  7. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Enter your zip code in this site and it will tell you CO2 (and other) emission to produce electricity from your utility company.

    Since it reports in lbs/MWh and Leaf gets about 3 miles per kWh, divide your regional number by 3,000. This will give you CO2 emission per mile to compare it to OP's numbers.

    For me, driving Leaf would give me 0.272 lbs/mi. About 42% lower than Prius. That's because 44% of my electricity was generated by Nuclear powerplant.
     
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  8. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    You are still ignoring all the folks (Washington state, for example, or Darell and others with PVs) who run EVs from clean, renewable energy. You are ignoring the disastrous economics of importing our energy. And you are ignoring the potential for all electricity to be clean.

    In the end, however, the thing that's going to make gasoline cars (including the Prius) obsolete, is the rising cost of gas related to skyrocketing demand and falling supply. And of course our corrupt politicians will probably deal with it by burning even more coal and building nukes and leaving a sterile planet for future generations. Because I agree with you that coal is a disaster. It's just not the only way we can get electricity.
     
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  9. davesrose

    davesrose Active Member

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    My zip's CO2 is .497 lbs per mile: slightly more then the national average. Since Georgia also doesn't recognize hybrids for the HOV lane, I figured the Prius was ecological here.
     
  10. davesrose

    davesrose Active Member

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    In the US, that's going to take a pretty long time. I'm always floored by how much cheaper gas is here then other parts of the world (my relatives in Austria, for example, get about 3 Euros per liter of gas there). Americans bitched when gas prices went above 3 dollars per gallon, but they still didn't change their lifestyle much. Apart from the expensive electric cars that are hitting the market now, the only other alternative is biodiesel...which is expensive in itself. Milk is about $3.80 per gallon, Coke is $8.20...Evian is $6.40...while even cheap as snot Budwieser is $8.88 (I'm a beer snob, so I'd rather brew good beer or even pay more for good craft beers...which are way more then Bud).
     
  11. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Note that this site reports regional averages, not specific to any utility company. For example, it claims that 45% of my energy is fossil fueled, whereas the local utility claims 2% fossil fuel and 91% hydro.

    And when I plug in zip codes across the state, and even one and two states to the east, the reported numbers don't change.
     
  12. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    very true, but then again those using gas from canada's oil sands don't have on the stickers how much wildlife was killed in the strip mining. It is key to understand pollutants that make us sick and create ozone and particulate matter versus electricity.



    And bugs bunny is arguably this countries greatest president:) But lets not get into those silly arguments. Say we took 2 million escalade type vehicles off the road and replaced them with prii. That would make a big impact to global warming right? An escalade should put a little less than 8 tons of co2 more than the prius. That makes 2 million of them put out 16 megatons, it sounds like that might help global warming. That is until you realize that China puts out that much co2 in a minute. Is the amount of co2 the next five million evs contribute really that important or even measurable in the grand scheme of things?

    sure and how much more mercury will we put out with each new ev? Its not measurable.

    Since NOx and SO2 are capped for electricity the net effect of BeV and PHEV is 0. Methane is released with petroleum too, and we need to do a better job with both. The pollution from BEVs


    But what in the world does that have to do with BEVs? Do you think they will tear down the coal power plants if we don't build them? Its a false argument. Clean up coal plants sure. But don't slow down BEV production because you are confused and think CO2 from coal is destroying america.

    Finally how do you pay for modernizing the grid? Do you get confused by the europeans and say its all about CO2? How about riding some of the drain on the economy of a huge trade deficit going to purchase a scarce resource that are enimies have used in the past to harm our economy. Reducing oil use, reducing particulate pollution and ozone levels is definitely more important than a false argument about CO2. By the way, like daniel, I live in a place where plugging in will produce less co2 than driving my efficient prius. They just are not producing the PHEV that I want yet.
     
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  13. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    Unlike you, I've already drive a PHEV. So I'm aware of the issues. Let me lay it out out a little slower, because with all your complexity, I think you've managed to obscure the basic facts.

    I'm not talking about people with access to clean electricity. (Duh.) I believe I said, clean electric transport requires clean electricity. If you have clean electricity, then, I think you can logically fill in the rest of that. My examples were for Virginia -- where I live and drive my PHEV -- and the US as a whole.

    If you've got rooftop PV charging you EV, go for it. That's as clean as it gets. And the title of my thread (C02) and my calculation (C02) are irrelevant to you. And the closer you get to a situation like that, the less relevant my calculation is.

    I didn't talk about national security. Importing less oil is good.

    I'm not confusing the issue by talking about wildlife trapped in the tar sands. Because if I did that, being a person who looks at all sides of an issue, I'd rationally have to trade that against (e.g.) destruction of habitat through strip mining for coal (and now, through mountaintop removal). And all of this assumes that (e.g.) nuclear is completely benign, that fracking for gas is benign, and so on. That's just too big a can of worms to open.

    Here's the gist of the argument.

    What I object to is people who think that all EVs, by any user, are per se pollution free, or that they inherently solve a problem with GHG emissions, or that they are inherently green. They are only as green as the fuel they use.

    To be clearer, based on my calculation, it's not like people in a few areas with particularly dirty power generation might want to stop and think before buying an EV. It's more the case that the typical US buyer would (e.g.) significantly increase GHG emissions buy switching from a Prius to an EV using 34 KWH per 100 miles.

    That is, assuming that EV = green, at least with respect to GHG emissions, is not some isolated issue that should concern a few potential US buyers. To the contrary, at 34 KWH/100, this is an issue that every grid-charging EV buyer should be aware of. There is no free lunch.

    And so ... the EPA is now going to put stickers on EVs that show zero environmental impact. That's the embodiment of a free lunch. I think that's unfortunate. It's not slightly misleading. For the average US resident, that's grossly misleading.

    In my state, and in the US on average, if you drive more EVs, and charge them from the grid, you increase demand for electricity. That means that, unless and until you clean up the generation sources, you burn more fossil fuel to generate it. More coal, and, to a lesser extent, more natural gas, and to a far lesser extent, oil.

    We can break the resulting pollution down into two categories. First is GHG emissions, which you pooh-pooh. Then there's everything else.

    My calculation was for GHG emissions, narrowly, on C02. There, at 34 KWH/100, in Virginia, the Leaf is a wash versus the Prius. And (population weighted) in more than half the country, the Leaf actually increases GHG emissions versus the Prius.

    EVs may in fact reduce other pollutants, on net. That would depend on how you value the individual pollutants. And EVs definitely move those polluntants into rural areas, on average, so that they affect fewer people. (Or, alternatively, so that the people creating the pollution don't have to breath it, take your pick.) But they certainly don't reduce them to zero. For some pollutants, like mercury, they clearly increase them. For S02 and N0x, we could have a reasoned debate over whether or not the caps are binding, and what consequences increased coal burning would have.

    But zero? Nope. And that's what the EPA is telling car buyers everywhere.

    Will the average EV purchase reduce pollution? Maybe. For me, here in Virginia, the Leaf clearly won't reduce the pollutant that I value most highly, as long as I charge off the grid.
     
  14. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    You are basing your calculations on one number though. This is based on the EPA average range for the Leaf of 73(?) miles (please correct me if I am wrong). If some gets an average of 100 mile range, that affects the CO2 use significantly. Also, I question the 34Kwh number. It appears that is a simple adjustment of the 24Kwh pack of the leaf multiplied by about 1.4 to get 34Kwh. I don't believe the full 24Kwh of the pack is accessible/used to get the full range.

    All of these numbers also depend heavily on how the people drive. The numbers you use are very close to 3 miles per Kwh. The stated range by Nissan gets you better than 4Kwh/mile.
    In my EV, I get very close to 4Kwh/mile.

    So basically, the amount of co2 use goes up the more aggressively you drive or the more inefficient the driving conditions.
    This is true driving an EV, PHEV, Gas burner, Fuel cell vehicle or bicycle.

    Not really. I agree it is not an accurate picture of all the energy used, but it is the same as they treat oil.
    The EPA sticker always showed the fuel that the vehicle uses. If you want to include the impact caused at the plant (coal, NG, hydro, etc) for EVs, also include the impact of the refinery and transportation of the gasoline.
    If you want to also show the pollution of mining the coal, drilling for NG, etc, also include the pollution from drilling for oil, fraking the shale, etc.
     
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  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    These numbers are averages, while EV use typically uses sources at the margin of demand.

    Portland, OR is a good example of how these two can differ. While about half of electricity consumed in Portland is hydro based, 100% of marginal demand is supplied by coal.
     
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  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Do you remember the pictures of Rav EV's towing a generator that burned petrol for the car's electricity ?

    I wonder how the EPA would rate that setup.

    When close to all cars consumed petrol, the well-tank information was the same; only the car differed. Now with EV the energy cycle is different from the "well" onwards, and ignoring well-tank or ground-battery just gives stoopid numbers that do not reflect reality, or physics, or underlying pollution or energy questions.

    By now we should all be able to agree that EV is not in general an advance over Prius in terms of CO2 emissions for most grid users.

    I'll keep saying the same thing: we should focus on cleaning up the grid, not adding appliances to it when it is dirty.
     
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  17. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    There's a qualitative difference between ignoring the roughly 20% additional energy required to create the gasoline, and ignoring 100% of the energy required to create the electricity. It's just a dumb way for the EPA to make a comparison.

    This is the same electricity that goes to run your house. Putting it in your car doesn't change it. If the EPA sticker is legit, then can't I claim that all my household electrical use is pollution-free, since there's no pollution emitted at the point of use?

    As Sagebrush points it, this is a completely different and far more complex animal. What you burn and when you burn it, to generate the electricity, that matters. The EPA hasn't quite figured out how to deal with it. They've been struggling just with issuing a mileage figure. I don't think they've even started to deal with the implications of showing this as a pollution-free mode of transport.

    Per Sagebrush's comment on cleaning up the grid, when I run the numbers, for me, here in VA, for the Hymotion PHEV conversion, it would have been between 5 and 10 times more cost-effective to have used the money to install PV rather than to buy that battery, in terms of C02 avoided per dollar. (When I bought the conversion, I had access to carbon-free electricity, but no longer, and my roof is a poor site for PV.)

    Anyway, just for a moment, consider the average Prius-owning EV purchaser whose grid electricity matches the US average. The Federal government is offering a $7500 tax credit and saying that an EV is pollution-free, when in fact, switching from the Prius to the EV raises GHG emissions. Is this wise?

    When I bought my PHEV conversion, I had my eyes open. I did the calculations myself, and I paid for it myself. I knew it was no miracle if grid-charged. I too seem to get about 4 miles to the KWH, near as I can tell. I grasp the "infant industry" arguments (that we eventually will have to go electric, we need may want to subsidize the startup cost), I grasp the "grid will eventually be clean argument" (most states have renewable energy mandates now that should force some slow cleanup of the grid). I even get the "less of some pollutants and certainly less emitted where people live" argument. All that notwithstanding, I don't think that telling JQP that we'll give him or her $7500 if he or she will purchase this pollution-free vehicle is a good thing to do. It should be purchased or not on its actual merits.
     
  18. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    There's another pollution issue we have not brought up yet: Depleted uranium.

    In order to secure our access to and control of foreign oil, which we will need as long as we drive gasoline or diesel cars (other than bio-diesel) we keep having to fight wars against people who want to control their own oil. Present war fighting tactics involve the use of obscene quantities of depleted uranium munitions, which leave low-level radioactivity spread out all over the countries we fight in. This stuff is virtually impossible to clean up, and the devastated countries have no resources for clean-up anyway.

    Depleted uranium munitions are a can of worms we really should not be opening. (The stuff is used because it's heavier than other stuff. When you want to wreak destruction, heaver is better. And the generals don't give a rat's nice person about pollution, as demonstrated when they had open house at the Grand Forks air base in North Dakota and they were burning used motor oil in an open pit, something anybody else would be jailed for doing.)

    And of course there's a lot of conventional pollution every time you drop a bomb and set something on fire. Wars over oil are another very good reason to switch from foreign to domestic energy.
     
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  19. caffeinekid

    caffeinekid Duct Tape Extraordinaire

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    In a nutshell, given a choice between something that is smokey and noisy, and something that is quiet and clean, I'll choose the latter. And so would most people I imagine. Sometimes you have to concentrate on the simple marketing of things....the way people who don't think think. The CO2 of a Prius, which we are all endeared to, and a Leaf is of little enough consequence that the conversation for most people intuitively moves on to the more subtle and hidden aspects of the EV vs ICE choice such as adoption of a more future-forward policy involving energy independence.

    And frankly, some people are just geeky and like the idea of owning an EV for the gadget factor. These people too should be encouraged.
     
  20. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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