Nissan Leaf vs Prius

post deleted.

 

I asked the Nissan rep yesterday how much the Leaf battery might cost to replace, but got no answer. So, the Leaf battery may cost 12 to 24 thousand dollars ... wow.

I notice in EV and plug-in discussions and brochures, there is much talk about the benefits, but very little talk about the costs of batteries. Costs, ah, minor details, right?

And, I don't recall any estimate in Who Killed the Electric Car of how much the EV-1 might cost to produce or purchase. Could be wrong, but I don't recall the costs.

Haven't found my way to total cost/benefit analysis of BEV vs. gasoline cars.

 

Flood the market? Who is exactly flooding the market?
Tesla makes about 300 EVs a year. Nissan, is planning on about 50,000 once they ramp up to full capacity.
With 9 million car sales a year that is just over one half of one percent.
Or less than a quarter of a percent of annual sales world wide.

Yes, there are people for whom EVs won't work right now (apartment owners as you mentioned).
Luckily, if you add up all the people that have attached garages, with electricity, that don't drive more than 100 miles in a day, you have a lot more than 50,000.
So exactly which market is being flooded?

PS The cost given by GM for the cost of the EV1 at the time they crushed them was about $63k. The protestors brought a check
At the time, this was a low volume new tech car which the cost probably included a big chunk of research/development.

 

Really ? It surprises you that they can't give an accurate figure for the battery 8 years from now ?

 

"Supremely Smart" !!!

Apparently the Tesla deal, years to comeout with a plug-in and asking Tesla's help to complete a rav4-ev concept missed your attention.

What a joke.

ps : Auto industry is complex with long lead times.

 

ever see the movie "Field of Dreams?" with the tag line "Build it and they will come". ok, maybe its a movie but a lot what that movie says does apply here.

explain to me how we could possibly even think for a second that a nation born, bred and aimed smack dab at the oil eco-structure who be convenient for an EV in any teeny weeny way whatsoever??

does not seem likely now does it?? and why would it? gas is king and the reason why is its king is because its the only option. well, i think (rather i know) that if a viable EV was put out on the road and given just a bit of a toehold in the doorway, that society will come around and we will allow the technology to flourish.

the EV highway project is exactly the toe we need. it was not so long ago that my co-workers ridiculed me because i paid $25,000 for a "car with nothing going for it but a lame-assed gimmick". one after another, people came up to me telling me how much smarter they were driving their $16,000 Hondas. over and over. but Priuses, hybrids, etc were new. unknown, but a very good idea. it took a while but now in my area, 1 in 6 cars are hybrids on the road today.

the same thing will happen with EV's. there are too many multi-car households with at least one driver whose RT commute is short enough that the Leaf could nearly go every other day on the charger. and ya, the Leaf wont work for everyone, but it will work for quite a few; enough to insure a very long waiting line for a Leaf 18 months from now.

there is a lot of people in a wait and see mode right now. sure its spendy, sure its a gamble, an unknown and support is minimal now and in certain parts of the country, there will not be adequate support for at least another 3-5 years.

but for my area, i expect an explosion of demand because EV's, no gas, plugging it in, its all a no-brainer and it benefits...well, pick one, plenty of reasons, causes and benefits to go around

 

Well the way I see it, they were peer pressured into making short-life Lithium EVs (Leaf and Volt).

Tesla's battery pack using the latest cells from Panasonic is a great move. Toyota owns 80% for the joint venture between it and Panasonic. It has more than twice the energy density than Leaf's battery. It is mass produced and readily available. The life is about the same (see below). If it turns out to be unreliable, blame it on Tesla.

Source

 

The EV1 costs more than $100K to build each copy. The $63K is the residue value or the value at time of crush.
At $100K+, the volume of sale will be less than 2000 per year, like that of the Tesla. GM does not sell cars less than 2000 a year because it is not profitable.

 

I think the Leaf is thee car to demonstrate how well BEV cars might do in the marketplace. It will be the only widely available EV car that looks and has the stance of a highway going car for a reasonable price. There is no other in the US to date. So, kudos to Nissan for stepping up.

Forget that Mitsu iMEV or whatever it's called ... only hardcore EV enthusiasts would consider that if it comes out next year. The rest will just go ... ewwww and walk away.

So, we shall see how the Leaf does in the next couple years.

 

FUD.

 

How is 1,000 deep cycles (Gen1 Leaf) enough?

My understanding is that Leaf will use at least 80% of the capacity. That's pretty deep.

The EV range is from 47 to 138 miles. For the worse case, the battery would last 47,000 miles. This does not account for the 30% capacity loss toward the end of life. If I take account of it, it would be around 40,000 miles.

The best case would last 138,000 miles under ideal conditions.

Gen2 Leaf and Tesla Model S battery with 2,000 to 3,000 cycles should be the automotive grade battery (10 years / 150k miles).

That's my opinion based on that information. Is there any reason why you think Gen1 Leaf battery would be more reliable than I think?

 

Interesting stuff ...

Code:

Gasoline         9,700 Wh/l     12,200 Wh/kg
Butane           7,800 Wh/l     13,600 Wh/kg
LNG (-160°C)     7,216 Wh/l     12,100 Wh/kg
Propane          6,600 Wh/l     13,900 Wh/kg
Ethanol          6,100 Wh/l      7,850 Wh/kg
Methanol         4,600 Wh/l      6,400 Wh/kg
250 Bar NG       3,100 Wh/l     12,100 Wh/kg
Liquid H2        2,600 Wh/l     39,000 Wh/kg
150 Bar H2         405 Wh/l     39,000 Wh/kg
NiMH Battery       280 Wh/l        100 Wh/kg
Li-Ion Battery     200 Wh/l        150 Wh/kg
Lead-Acid Battery   40 Wh/l         25 Wh/kg

Looks like we get to choose between longevity and energy density for now.

 

I think your Li-Ion battery numbers are very low - at a minimum the Wh/l numbers are typically at least as good as NiMH and usually at least double with some chemistries 3x better.

Just a quick search shows Li-Ion batteries over 500 Wh/l and over 300 Wh/kg.

For example, the Panasonic 18650 3.1 Ah cells which have been in production since Dec 2009 are rated at 675 Wh/l and 251 Wh/kg.

Panasonic's product roadmap has 800 Wh/l batteries shipping in 2012 with 800 Wh/l density (though weight will increase so Wh/kg will be similar).

 

That NiMH figure is probably for high energy density. High power cells like the one in Prius has 46 Wh/kg.

 

And unless my calculations are wrong, the NiMH cells in the Prius appear to be around 80 Wh/l...

Dimensions are 1.96cm x 10.6cm x 28.5cm = 592 cm^2 or 0.592 l. Capacity is 46.8 Wh. 46.8 / 0.592 = 79 Wh/l.

 

we cant base battery longevity on mileage performance. its charge performance that counts. sure, in extreme conditions a Leaf may get 47 miles on a charge, but only because the battery has applied a significant amount of its charge to climate control. a Tesla under similar conditions may only see a 100 mile range. its all relative and the significant data point in any Leaf scenario that provided poor #'s was the time on the road.

under those scenarios, the Leaf is less an electric car and more an RV with AC. the primary purpose of the car is transformed from transportation to a vessel to provide creature comforts during unfriendly weather conditions.

in the grand scheme of things, we will really not know how the Leaf performs until a few are out there for 100,000 miles. battery management is the key here, not the expected life cycles. Even the very engineers who designed the charge management system at Toyota were shocked at the milestones some Priuses obtained. on paper, NiMH is not supposed to be all that long lived, but Toyota managed to figure out a way to make it work.

but once again we are talking a mileage figure that can have a lot of variance from one car to another. in a Prius that goes 100,000 on its traction battery verses one that goes 300,000 miles who is blame or credit?

driving conditions must be considered simply because some driving situations rely more on the engine, other situations more battery.

but one thing i do know for sure; EV's will not advance without an effective support structure to relieve range anxiety, a support structure that will not be built until EV's are bought and driven. batteries will not get better, until we start dumping them into EV's and running them to see what works and what doesnt.

the Leaf may be a great car, it may end up to be a dud. but at least
at least....

at least ITS THERE!!

my "other" options...

a car that i could not buy even if i sold everything i owned
a car that is just barely larger than my Zenn.

so you all can shoot Nissan down for what they are doing, but at least they have the guts to do something, and i cant help but feel that if Nissan was not making this big push, everyone else would be at least a year farther behind on their EV intros.

 

This is what you said.

That is FUD.

1,000 cycles @ say 85 miles is 85K miles. Not that the battery is dead by then - it still has a good 70% left. For a commuter city car that is easily 8 years or more. That is not short-life.

In 8 years battery would have vastly improved.

All this hand-wringing just shows that you are not an early adopter.

I'm always amazed at the unwillingness to take simple risks and yet at the same time taking huge risks by complteley ignoring things like peak oil.

ps : When GM was making lead acid EVs, Nissan was already making Lithium based EVs. Outside of Sony they have the longest experience in Li batteries.

pps :

You missed the main part of that table. Look at the thermal stability. Don't like Model S battery so much ...

 

You are right, my first Prius is a Gen2. I apologize if I come across as putting Leaf and Volt down trying to make my point.

When Gen1 Prius was introduced, Toyota tested the HV battery and it showed it would last at least 180k miles before reaching IEEE recommended 80% (not 70%). They may not know how it would age but they simulated hybrid discharge cycles and had the data to back it up.

Right now, Lithium battery is not where it meets Toyota's reliability standard. Just check their record with Rav 4 EV NiMH packs. Those are still running today.

Toyota tested Lithium HV battery with Prius back in 2006-2009. They verified the durability and performance of it - gained a few MPG. However, the cost was too high to justify the benefit in 2010 Gen3 model. That was for high power HV battery pack.

I am sure Toyota also tested high energy EV lithium pack. These are designed for deep discharges. As shown in your table, it is not where it can meet Toyota's reliability standard (lifetime = 150k miles).

Toyota is now seen as "behind" in electrification because they are not willing to take that higher risk. However, Nissan and Chevy are willing to because they have more to gain. This is what I meant by "peer pressured" into taking higher risk. By using Tesla's battery pack and electric drivetrain, Toyota is doing "risk transfer" and to appear they are not behind - playing the same game as Nissan and Chevy.

Do you think Prius would be successful as today if Gen1 only lasted 40k to 138k miles? That was really my point.

BTW, Tesla has unique technology to deal with the "unstable" laptop cells. I can say it has been proven for 3 years (?). I have not heard of the roadster battery pack bursting into flame. Model S with the Nickel based battery is more stable than the cells used in the Roadster.

 

excellent response and i will "not" make judgement on Toyota's business decisions, but we have been playing it "safe" for way too long. we need risk takers and i am glad that Nissan has taken that risk and in a very big way and i will support their efforts.

we as a society rarely knows what is good for us until we experience it. couple our resistance to change and we have a lot of hurdles to overcome that are not technical or financial.

now whether the Leaf is a good product or a bad product, we shall find out but their pushing EV technology before its ready for mainstream's unrealistic expectations (and its not) is most definitely a good thing.

 

I am not quite sure where you get your info.
At it's core, the new Tesla packs are Lithium based, not nickel.
Tesla also ran their Roadster batteries through a number of tests and simulations.
Toyota didn't believe the Tesla batteries would fare as well as they have. However, they are doing much better than Toyota expected. So now Toyota has asked for two prototypes from Tesla.