Mark gets a shot at driving the PHV Prius in and around NYC

a common mis-perception based on an "all or nothing" requirement. no matter what your situation, you will never eliminate those short last second, unplanned trips that life requires unless you simply live in the middle of nowhere.

in my life i try to be prepared; well planned trips to warehouse stores, Costco, etc. but i have i simply dont try hard enough or plan well enough because i still average 2-4 trips to the corner grocery (3.6 miles RT (round trip). then toss in taking my son to school twice a week which adds 4 trips coming and going twice RT 3.8 miles. they add up and we dont realize it because its not a major expense or mileage. then laziness kicks in. so a few trips to Papa Murphy's or the Chinese place for take out... it goes on and on

very unscientific observation here, but my Zenn takes care of 90% of short around town trips (if it had 3 seats it would do 100%!!) i have probably saved myself about 1-2 mpg in lifetime efficiency on my Prius by not subjecting it to those short trips.

2010 transition is smoother than my 2006

50% increase in mileage is definitely major~!!~. my LT plans is a Leaf and PHV Pri!

great question. what was calculate miles per killowatt hour estimate?

 

Really enjoyed watching all the PHV videos. Great insights and wisdom shared. Thanks again for everything!

 

A bit more on the scientific side, I recorded odometer readings each night. Here's my 365-day break down:

12 = miles 0-9
14 = miles 10-19
16 = miles 20-29
65 = miles 30-39
76 = miles 40-49
87 = miles 50-59
34 = miles 60-69
21 = miles 70-79
40 = miles 80-999

No pattern emerged. The distances were all over the place. Like you, the variety of daily driving simply could not be predicted or planned.
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Maybe a 50% increase in MPGs, but the bottom line to most consumers will be their aggregate, total energy cost. One also needs to add in the additional increase on one's home electric bill.

So, in my case, I'm spending:

(17K miles/year)/(55 MPG) ~ 309 gallons/yr

(309 gallons) X $2.70/gallon ~ $834/yr TOTAL energy cost for non-plug-in, assuming ~ 17K miles/yr


For Plug-in G3:

(17K)/75) ~ 226 gallons.yr

(226 gallons) X $2.70 ~ $612/yr + electrical energy cost at home

If one assumes you will completely re-charge every night, using the US average electricity rates (off peak), the result is about $0.50 per complete re-charge cycle (ie, per day). So, in a 5 day work week, that adds another $2.50/week in added electricity charges.

Assuming the car is used 50, out of 52 weeks/year, then the total added electricity cost for the plug-in is: 50 weeks X $2.50/week, or about ~ $125/year in electricity cost.

So, the total energy cost for the plug-in is about:

$612 (for gas/yr) + $125 (electricity/yr) ~ $737 TOTAL energy expense for the plug-in, driving ~ 17K miles/yr.


TOTAL ENERGY COST DIFFERENCE (per year) = $834 - $737 = $97

REDUCTION IN TOTAL ENERGY COST = 11.6%

....so, while my MPGs might have gone up by 50%, my effective energy cost reduction only went down by 12%.

Conclusion: In my case, driving about 17K miles per year, I might expect the plug-in to save me about $100/year in energy transportation costs. Even if I double that, to $200 savings per year, it's still in the noise. If I had a much shorter comute, where most of the round trip would be in EV mode, then the savings would be considerably different. Soooooo, for my case (and most of us), if the price difference between the G3 and the plug-in is (after tax incentives) only ~ $3K....I will NEVER make up the cost differential unless the price of gas jumps up to $4-$5/gallon! My payback period, for just a $3K differential in price, is enormous and would not make economic sense.

Also, given that electricity in the mid-Atlantic is fossil fuel based in origin, there is NO CO2 savings between the plug-in and non-plu-in Prius G3.

If you are considering the plug-in, I would suggest you work your own numbers for where you live, under your driving conditions, and decide if it makes economic sense to your situation. If economics are not a factor, then buy whatever you want...but don't assume there will be a big savings in transportation costs...because i think that assumption will not be valid for the majority of drivers.

 

Mark,

When you were filming, did you have the windows down? The surrounding traffic as it passed by seemed a little loud, as did other car engines near you, especially at the start of the second video. I am just trying to judge how well the interior blocks outside noise.

 

So...just wanting the coolest car tech-toys is not enough? I've got to justify my wanting a plug...just like SUVers 'need' 22" wheels, and DVD players on every headrest, and chrome exhaust tip, and...you get the picture.

Of course the economics play a part in car purchases...that's why large, low-mpg vehicles continue to sell...'cause they're cheap in the short run. NO ONE costs these things out to the future, with fuel and maintenance costs. Sad, but people (most people), can only see/afford the cheapest thing on the lot. They won't see the least polluting (extremely hard to put a cost on clean air...maybe someday), or they won't see the least cost per mile...or kwhr.

Sorry, i may have rambled there. Bottom-line, the plug-ins and EVs will only look good if it's "cool" and affordable out the door.

 

You don't have to "justify" anything. Do you get the picture?

By the way, most folks that I know, who own a SUV (I use to own one), buy the SUV for the follwoing reasons:

(1) Like the visibility of sitting higher up. #1 reason for many woman.
(2) Safety. Right or wrong, people perceive that bigger is safer...and safety is a big motivation for soccer moms and dads.
(3) Hauling capabilities - both people and stuff.
(4) Alternative to Mini-vans, which some guys don't percieve as cool, or manly.

Most people only keep their car 3-7 years. One reason why leases are as popular as they are.

But I work in this industry, and I know for fact that one of the most important factors in selling cars in this segment, is the price point. Price is less of an issue for the upper end buyers of luxury vehicles. For that segment, it's all about image and creature comforts.

Look no further than what sales of the Prius did when gas was pushing $4/gallon in the US. When the car is perceived as being significantly MORE economical than the alternative, people will buy no matter how cool.

If people believe they can recoup the added cost (compared to a comperable mid-sized sedan) of buying a Prius, or a plug-in Prius, because of the lower amount of money they will spend on gas, and/ or maintenance....the number of people wanting to buy a hybrid, or plug-in, or all EV will go way up from those simply wanting to buy it because it is "techno cool". The techno-cool buys are noise, and don't represent any significant volume of consumers.

 

The difference between 50 MPG and 75 MPG car at the end of life (150k miles) is 1,000 gallons of gas. If gas is $3 per gallon, that's $3,000.

I think PHV Prius can make sense for a lot of people after the $2,917 tax credit. Some may see pluging it in a hassle. Some may see that as an opportunity.

 

There is still a tax credit? I thought that ended in April and you had to buy your vehicle by Dec 2009 to qualify?

 

It actually starts in Dec 2009.

Source

 

Average commute distance in the US is about 12k miles per year. In 10 years, you still won't pay back the difference. During that same period, I expect there will be huge strides made in EV and hybrid technology. A 10-15 year payback period makes no sense. Furthermore, the capacity of the battery used exclusively for EV in the plug -in, will have significant degradation over that period...so to expect a 25 mpg difference, 5-8 years latter, is not realistic. All batteries loose capacity over time and use.

 

Oh, nice. I was reading the just hybrid one. I didn't know there was a plug-in one.

 

This is where you and I part ways in our approach to life. If I can pollute less and send less dollars out of the country *at no additional out of pocket cost to myself*, I think it is a no-brainer.

 

Plug-in G3 pollute less than G3? As I said - that depends upon where you live. If your source for electricity is coal/oil based, as it is in many parts of the country......then my calculations indicate the CO2 savings are minimal, at best. In some markets, it's actually higher. I find it amusing that some folks on here ignore, or don't want to acknowledge the cost and/or pollution component associated with the generation of electricity used to re-charge the prius.

A 10+ year payback makes no economic sense. Period. If I really wanted to make the point, you also need to add in the financial interest charges you will incur when buying a plu-in that will cost you more than $3K than the same car without plug-in capability.

If you want to buy for other reasons, then that's fine. For some, it may make economic or environmental sense. But it won't for most of us. People should do their own evaluations, for their own situation....and not simply assume it's a "no brainer". That's my point.

 

I'll try once more, and then leave you to your fancies.

Rational thought dictates that a choice that benefits myself, my community, or my earth and has no personal $ cost to me is a no-brainer. Requiring $ profit before agreeing to other benefits is, to be blunt, self-defeating and illogical.

I have pointed out in this forum the GHG conundrum of EV cars vs the conventional prius way before you happened upon the study you opened a thread to discuss. Please read my posts for understanding before jumping through an open door to rationalize your opinions.

Lastly, writing "make economic sense" has no meaning I can discern. If you want to say that (a) choice has more out of pocket expense than (b) choice, then be clear and say so, hopefully with objective numbers. Does paying taxes to support a military to use foreign oil "make economic sense" to you ? Does purchase of foreign oil rather than domestic sources of energy, leading to massive trade deficit, "make economic sense?" The devil, as always, is in the details, the context, and one's priorities.

 

I'm still not convinced on that one. I'd perhaps go for "CO2 emitted while burning enough coal to get enough electricity into my car to travel 1 mile is greater than CO2 released when burning petrol to travel 1 mile", which is what the tabloids seem to be saying. However they seem to ignore the energy used to get oil from the ground (or the sea!), refine it, transport it, store it, pump it etc.

 

Pollution is not just GHG. A car tail-pipe is much closer to my boy's lungs when going to school than the powerplant 'tail-pipe' now try and put this into dollars?
Folks here are not ignoring pollution associated with generation of electricity but rather putting it in perspective. No wonder an electric car is defined as ZEV in California and the Prius as PZEV. Prius PHV will also be PZEV but the 'ZEV' part will be larger...

 

I saw the same thing today. We had about 1 mile EV range left. When accelerating moderately from a stop to about 15 to 20 mph, the gas engine came on for maybe a few seconds, then shut off.

 

So were there any days that you were able to drive in just EV mode for a stretch?