GM Lays Out the Volt Roll-Out Process

I'm gonna' stick with a post I made on another forum recently:

 

I read a a couple dozen comments from the OP's link, and am most unimpressed by the fanciful thinking rampant on that site:

-- Demand is going to skyrocket
-- The Volt is profitable at a $37k MSRP
-- GM can increase production whenever they want

etc. Not a strand of evidence to back anything up. Just wishful thinking. Few to none bother with facts:

-- Unknown MPG
-- Unknown MSRP
-- Unknown dealer mark-up
-- Unknown auto service availabiltiy or competency
-- Unknown warranty
-- Reliability unknown for years
... ...

So far the only quasi-believable factoid: 10,000 cars to be offered for sale through Dec 2011. If that is 14 months of sales, it works out to be about 23.5 cars a day. But wait -- there is less! GM will require dealerships that want to sell the Volt to always have a demo available. Who knows how many of the ~ 5000 current US dealerships will sign on to sell the Volt, but if it is only 20%, then 10% of GM's production until 2012 is unavailable to the consumer. Hilarious. *So much hot air* for 20 cars a day.

GM the company deserves its customers. Idiots.

 

10,000 through the end of 2011

30,000 produced in 2012

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It's getting interesting.

Some of enthusiasts on the Volt blog are beginning to show frustration... and actually agreeing with me! I pushed them to recognize why the task-force gave the "too little, too slowly" assessment. They're obviously starting to see it.

On the big GM forum, they have grown silent. That's a drastic change from the past, where they had mastered spin and being smug. I'm curious as heck what comes next. It would be fascinating to finally have constructive discussion. But with Prius approaching 500,000 sales per year, even before the plug-in, that's probably not likely. Here's what I posted there:


Remember the intent to ramp up production very quickly to meet demand?

Remember the production capacity of 60,000 planned for the second year?

Is this where I point out the "over-promise, under-deliver" concern and ask where all those who absolutely insisted this would never happen went?
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Equinox production is being increased to 1,200 per day.

What is the purpose of Volt ?
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1200 a day cannot be for too long, unless GM thinks it is going to sell 438,000 cars a year.

 

30,000 in 2012 is probably because the $7,500 federal plug-in tax credit ends in Dec 31st 2011.

 

I will be very surprised if the subsidy is not extended, at least through Pres Obama's term. No where close to the 200k cars/manufacturer limit will be reached by 2012.

 

This is no more true than "60,000 produced in 2012." Or "50 mpg expected in CS mode." Or "40 EV miles per charge." Or "Nicely under $30k."

Actually, the latest GM guesses on production approximately parallel the changing MPG reports.

 

I know you didn't make this comment, but companies do this all the time. Remember when you had to be invited to Gmail? Remember the iPhone lines from....... last week? Apple also knew they would sell out..

 

All new products in high demand will have some backlog in the beginning ... but that is very different from saying they will only make 30K year after next.

 

Slow Rollout Tactic.

Step back and look at the big picture.

Consider the chain of events which happened with Two-Mode. Sales have been far below expectations (only 3,256 total purchased from all 5 models for the first half of 2010). But since rollout was so slow and so drawn out, realities like that go pretty much unnoticed by most consumers. They just assume... since GM is still selling them, Two-Mode must be doing ok.

Today I heard a Volt enthusiast in an early rollout state (Michigan) won't take delivery until March next year, despite the fact that initial deliveries are supposed to begin in November. GM has already stated it will take 12 to 18 months before Volt will be available in all 50 states. Under the guise of being cautious, they are also covering their butts from fallout. Those enthusiasts still on the delivery waiting list will fiercely defend any negative feedback in the meantime. The automaker can just remain silent and deliver vehicles at a snail's pace.

The assessment of "too little, too slowly" is becoming all too real.
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