Take advantage of March lease deal or buy used?

Hi all!

I know there have been a lot of arguments between leasing vs buying used vs buying new, and I certainly don't want to restart those but with the great deals in leasing that are expiring in 4/5, do they end up becoming a better deal compared to used priuses in these specific circumstances?

I've been reading a lot of the threads on the march lease deals here as well as on the edmunds forum and was really close to taking the plunge on a 2010 Prius II base model, 12k miles/year (assuming I can get what a lot of other have negotiated:

MSRP: $24,750
Cap cost: $23,195
addl: $650 for fees
Gross cap: $23,890
Residual at 71%: $17,100
MF: .00075
Term: 36 months
Sales tax: 9%
no trade-ins or anything

After running the numbers on the lease calculator though, I'm paying about $8055 for 3 years of car.

Now, I'm graduating from college in May, and am starting my job in CT a month after, but would take advantage of the lease deal now even though i don't need a car on campus.

But, I then started searching on craigslist and have found a 2005 and 2006 Prius both with 49k miles for $11,500 and $11,900 respectively. clean titles on both.

In my head, I assume the 2005/06 should last another 6 yrs, and make it to 125k. Now, the seller of the 2005 is selling because she just took advantage of the March lease deal, which makes me wonder if she has little faith in her car making it another 3 years, or if I should hop on the leasing band wagon with her!

(Note: she said she paid $2000 down + $841 at drive off + $275/month for a 36 month lease w/ 12k mileage /yr, but without knowing cap cost and residual she worked out, I'm not sure if it was a good deal for her.)

Any help would be greatly appreciated as I try to think through this! Thank you in advance!

 

Haha, they're most likely your numbers, Saturnius, especially because I followed you over from the Edmunds forum. Great job on getting such a good deal and thanks so much for the fast reply!

OK, I've realized that a lease calculator I've been using estimates higher than this excel sheet some PC member kindly attached. Saturnius, may I ask what your total lease cost was since you're from socal? I'm actually looking for two priuses--both my sister and i are graduating and starting our jobs soon after. she happens to be at UCLA so I'm hoping she gets your socal prices. i'll look for mine in ct.

is there a lease calculator you use in particular you recommend? they should be the same...I've attached my numbers from this excel sheet.

i inputted your numbers in this sheet with the assumption you put nothing down and got a $8,615 total lease cost--is that right?

By the way, why doesn't everyone put down their lease cost when they're talking residuals and cap cost?

Thanks again for all your help, as well as your patience, as I try to work through this as a first time car buyer