Nissan Leaf - checking it out tonight

daniel, thanks for the very informative post!! i am following the Leaf on both twitter and facebook. they seem very committed to keeping the timetable. this is by far, the most exciting event for EV'ers out there.

the Tesla, as much as it has proven its abilities is simply beyond what i can pay. as far as where the Leaf will be, its hard to get around the still high cost of batteries. but am still hoping for a purchase price in the low $30K. granted an ambitious hope considering that there will be nearly $20,000 in batteries.

another thought; most high tech gadgets improve at the rate of 20-30% a year in performance. batteries have only improved 6-8% (per comments made on other forums, not verified!!) so a big breakthru in batteries is way over due.

 

They have not announced a price, but they say they intend to make it comparable to other family sedans. To me, family sedan means under $30,000. And when I mentioned the Tesla Model S, he said the Leaf would be "much" less expensive.

A big breakthrough in energy to weight ratio seems unlikely to me, since that is governed by chemistry. But a breakthrough in manufacturing cost ought to be possible. Maybe I'm talking through my hat.

A real-world 100-mile range, leaving enough juice in the batteries to ensure their longevity, would cost $36,000 using the batteries in my Xebra and my EV Porsche, at present retail prices. If Nissan can cut that in half with their chemistry and manufacturing, maybe a $30,000 car is possible, but it would be more like a 1970's-era Civic than like a Prius. I'd rather pay $40,000 and get a really nice car wrapped around my batteries. But that "family sedan" price range may be after the tax break.

April the pre-order list opens, and August I think he said prices would be announced and actual orders would be taken, from those who are high enough on the pre-list. So that's seven months before we know the cost.

Note that unlike GM, which announced a low price for the Volt, then raised it and raised it and raised it again, Nissan will not announce a price until they are ready to take actual orders.

 

I do think that battery chemistry advancements are coming, since battery tech is the "new hot thing" (for cars) many more companies are working on new tech versus when the ev1/rav4 ev where built there were only a couple.

From what I've read Nissan is using a different Li-ion chemistry (I think it is Li-ion-magnese combo) and a very simplified pack air cooled not liquid cooled. So this two pronged approach, Nissan is really bringing down the price of the pack so you don't have a 30k battery pack surrounded by a 5k car!

 

It will be interesting to see how low they can keep the production cost of the batteries, in order to be able to build a reasonably nice car, give it 100 miles of range, and keep it in the price class of a "typical" family sedan. They won't want to skimp too much on car quality, but getting this battery pack down to, say, $5,000 or $10,000 would be a really enormous leap in battery technology.

I am uncharacteristically optimistic. I really get the impression that Nissan (unlike GM) is serious about this.

 

I really do think they are serious. The story is hitting the local news here in the UK as the Sunderland Nissan plant is one of Nissans biggest and is very likely to get the contract to manufacture the Leaf.

Check out the following too;

BBC News - North East England eyes low carbon future

 

well, nissan has really gone all out to show off the Leaf. i did get a close up look (sort of, was pretty crowded and only got about a 2 min look...not much time) and it was driven around (not by me unfortunately) so the car is real, no doubt about that.

 

the issue, i think, is not, can you make one? yes you can and volt has one also. the issue is, can you make a thousand, ten thousand, a hundred thousand, at thirty something thousand dollars. no one but nissan knows how much that "one" cost. it's a healthy skepticism i think, keeps our hopes from being dashed.
all that being said, when i can go buy one, i will go buy one. any details on how they are going to heat and cool the thing? boston ain't seattle!

 

They have not announced the price, but the man told me they will sell 900 to 1,000 in each of several markets in December, and will then begin producing 150,000 per year beginning a year later. They're not going to promise to build 150,000 cars unless they can price them so they will sell. Now, in a free market system, you can expect them to charge as much as they can. They'll do market research, and figure out the maximum amount that 150,000 Americans will pay. And that's fine with me.

How many Volts will GM produce? 500? 5,000? Didn't I read 500 the first year, and then 5,000? Will they even build that many? Nissan is committed to electric. They want to position themselves as the electric car company. Tesla brought out the Roadster first, but Nissan wants to be first with a car families can afford, in numbers to make an impact.

GM just wants to convince people that it's not the bad guy, which in fact it is. When the Volt flops, they'll come up with some new promise they can hold out for five or ten years down the line.

 

Heating and cooling will reduce range. In my little Zap Xebra with a 72-volt pack, The heater on high draws about 25 amps, on low it draws about half that. On the coldest days here in Spokane, five minutes on high and the car is toasty, and after that I run it on low intermittently. (My Xebra does not have a thermostat; just high and low.) That means it takes about 0.15 kWh to make the car toasty. The car goes about 3 miles on one kWh. I think that means I use half a mile of range to heat up the car from cold. Then intermittent use on low, I think eats about a mile of range each hour. Bigger car and more aggressive heater use, I'm going to say should not eat more than 5 or 10 miles range, at most, per hour of use. With a 100 mile range, you should still have 80 miles of range when using heating or cooling.

These are just my guesses extrapolated from the numbers I see in my Xebra: 25 amps on high; half that on low; and some pretty good heat coming from that. (I have an aftermarket heater, much more powerful than the stock Xebra heater.)

 

this is my thinking on why we dont have more EV's on the road.

batteries...

yep that. problem is, without a very effective way of managing the limitations of battery storage, any manufacturer is going to end of up with a customer whose level of frustration will be greater than with their normal cars which will drive up support costs. this does add to the bottom line.

i personally think that other auto manufacturers have simply been unable to weigh their claims with their cost analysis. i believe that any major manufacturer can easily get a much better price for the batteries, much better than we can imagine, so i dont think the manufacturing cost is the sticking point. i think its the expected additional time that dealers will have to invest to support customers that may have been misled (or heard what they wanted to hear) about battery performance.

this site pretty much confirms my suspicions. here, we have people who despite a ton of info, who simply cannot understand why they get 15% less mileage in relatively mild winter weather.

EV owners will have the same issues. my EV came with a one year warranty. regular car manufacturers selling cars for 3X more will not be able to get away with that.

so the thought of batteries costing the manufacturer more than 12-15,000 is simply not a valid argument. GM is doing the right thing by building their own, and sure start up is expensive (but then again, most of it is not their money) but battery needs could be high for years...(unless EESU's come around) so its a good investment.

 

I don't think battery support costs need to be high. Xebra and Zenn owners using sealed lead batteries with string chargers (a recipe for disaster) have suffered a high level of frustration. But there's not more than 2 or 3 battery failures in the million (???) Priuses on the roads for over a decade. Sealed lead batteries are very susceptible to damage and string charging virtually guarantees it. But nickel and lithium batteries with sophisticated management systems need not have such problems, and lithium batteries do not suffer from cold weather nearly to the extent that lead and nickel batteries do. After that, it's just a matter of dealer and manufacturer honesty. Tell the customer up front what their range will be in real-life driving conditions in their climate. If they promise 100 miles and the car only gets 50, they will sell more cars and have lots of angry customers. If they promise 100 miles and the car gets 120 (because they put a few more batteries in and understated the range) they'll have happy customers.

It's a long-established fact of customer relations that if your product achieves X and you promise X + 1 your customers will be unhappy. But if you only promise X - 1 your customers will be happy. Same product, same price. But in the first case you need to spend big bucks dealing with products that don't meet people's expectations, whereas in the second case your service costs are nil.

However, batteries are expensive, and until we have a recharging infrastructure, practical range will be limited.

So in the end, I agree with you: batteries are the sticking point.

 

Hey, if Daniel is coming this way to buy a Leaf, then do NOT forget to tell me!!

I want to join you guys for lunch, okay?

 

If I'm ever going to be anywhere near the Seattle area, I will definitely let you know. I would love to meet you. I'm hoping that I'll be able to buy my Leaf (assuming I make it onto the list for the December, 2010 limited edition) here in Spokane. The guy told me that Washington state as a whole will be one of the markets, though he did not know for sure if there would be a dealer for the Leaf here. I believe they're installing charging stations on the coast, so there's still a chance they'll only sell it there, and since there'll be a limited list, they'll know where I am, making it less likely I could just go to Seattle to grab one. It might be necessary to arrange an accomplice as early as April to get on the list with a Seattle address. I'm not sure I'd go to such great lengths.

Also, there's the question of service if they are not supporting dealers here, since the EV components will require special training of the service people.

 

Found this old link about the Leaf's batteries, also mentions the 3-phase, 50KW rapid charger ($45K)... though I would post the link, in case you havn't seen it yet:
2011 Nissan LEAF: Batteries - All Cars Electric

 

I phoned Nissan's Leaf Customer Support line again, to ask specifically if it will be available in Spokane at the first release this December. The woman I spoke with said that had not yet been determined, but there would be more information when they open the pre-list.

I told her that I do not need the charging infrastructure (which will be available in the Seattle area and elsewhere, but probably not in Spokane, at least for now) because a 100-mile range would be adequate, and that I really hope they do not limit it to regions where the charging is available.

She told me they are getting lots of calls from people saying the same thing, and that it might be available outside the "target markets." One concern I have is that they might want to sell it only in cities where they have trained their service technicians to work on it, and that might not include Spokane.

So, as of now, I don't know if I'll be able to get one or not.

On another topic I asked again about the 100-mile range. She insisted that they have actually tested the car for range, and 100 miles is the range it gets. Obviously, driving style, terrain, and speed matter. But I don't mind driving conservatively when I need maximum range. During the short period I was driving the electric Porsche (now being completely re-built locally) I held it to 55 mph when I wanted to go all the way to Coeur d'Alene and back, and I floored it when I was driving in town where range was not an issue. I could do the same with the Leaf.

She also threw out something intriguing: I already knew that Nissan plans to offer battery upgrades for more range at some undetermined time in the future. She told me they were hoping to offer a 400-mile battery at some point. I don't know if that's pure fantasy. The weight alone would seem prohibitive. But I could sell the Prius if I had a 400-mile EV. I could drive to Seattle or Revelstoke or Banff on one charge. All I'd need is a slow charge once there.

 

Yes Daniel, a 400 mile range and I would dump my 2010 Prius as well. It's a nice car, don't get me wrong, I just wouldn't need it any longer. Of course it depends on what the cost would be to get to that 400 mile range, and when it would be available.

 

400 mile range probably won't be available for a while, and probably would be very expensive at today's battery prices. I'd pay it because it would be super cool. Based on absolutely nothing but pure speculation, I'm going to say in five years, for an extra $20,000 to $30,000, assuming significant technological progress and assuming Nissan is building them in volume.

 

eestor would do it

 

What's become of EEStor? They seem to have gone silent since they missed their own promised date of year's end 2009 to deliver working EESUs to Zenn. Usually, when a company promises to deliver a product on a date, and the date passes with no product, they give a reason and a revised delivery date. Any word from them?

I'm skeptical they ever had a product. All I ever saw was that they had a process for refining a material that they believed, based on theory, should be a suitable dielectric for the capacitors.

 

There doesn't appear to be anything positive on EEStor on this Wikipedia article:
[ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EEStor"]EEStor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]
nothing positive here either, in fact quite the opposite
http://bariumtitanate.blogspot.com/